Predict what they will do AND more importantly, how the market will react
I say 75 and will close up 2%
I say 75 and will close up 2%
The Fed's decision thread
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50 Replies |
Last: 4 yr ago by PDEMDHC
+50
Lake08 said:
Predict what they will do AND more importantly, how the market will react
I say 75 and will close up 2%
No confidence in this, but 75 bps and a 2%-4% rip over the next couple days would be my guess if I had to make one.
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I think they will hold to the 50bps planned for June but announce a 100bps on the horizon for July and not out of the picture for September.
They might do that in an attempt to talk loud instead of increasing rates faster. If we only go up 50 bps, I think we'll see red the rest of the week. Again, I have extremely low confidence in this. Not a tradable thesis, IMO.
Probably this in order to be "stable" and "predictable."
We need a 300bps bump now, which would cost me a lot of $ personally in the short term. But we have to slow down demand as quickly as the administration is clogging the supply side of the economy.
We need a 300bps bump now, which would cost me a lot of $ personally in the short term. But we have to slow down demand as quickly as the administration is clogging the supply side of the economy.
There is now immense pressure for .75 but my guess is that they will stay at .50 and wait to see if something positive happens Ukraine or with the supply chain issues.
It's going to be 50. This 75 talk is silly.
And I don't care about market reaction in the short term. In the medium term we will continue going down.
And I don't care about market reaction in the short term. In the medium term we will continue going down.
50 bps. They will see if Powell can do his usual talk and calm inflation/markets without having to do to much. Won't work. We will begin to lower rates in 2023. The government simply cannot afford to issue treasuries with any kind of substantial interest rate.
They probably wont get to that until spring 2023... if at all. That's the sad part.LostInLA07 said:
Probably this in order to be "stable" and "predictable."
We need a 300bps bump now, which would cost me a lot of $ personally in the short term. But we have to slow down demand as quickly as the administration is clogging the supply side of the economy.
someone was obviously telling the media this week it will be 75AggieMainland said:
It's going to be 50. This 75 talk is silly.
And I don't care about market reaction in the short term. In the medium term we will continue going down.
my prediction is that is more of the jawing the Fed loves to do instead of actually being forced to raise rates.
I call .50 raise and discussing about raising a point next time
Fed isn't serious about inflation. I think they are only going to raise rates just enough to have something to lower once the recession hits to make it look like they have a "dial to turn". This whole thing was engineered from the start to convert the US to socialism. The US government wants inflation. Why?
The super rich aren't harmed as they have so much money they can afford $5 gas and they also invest wisely to hedge it anyway.
The middle and upper middle class get a lower quality of life (socialism) as they can no longer afford to do the things and live the way they want.
All groups under middle class continue as they are because the government will continue increasing hand outs and now they can justify "COLA" increases to those benefits that are 8% annually (socialism).
So, you end up with a super rich elite class and everyone else is flattened and near equal underneath them (middle class and upper middle class go lower due to inflation and levels below them rise due to increased government benefits so all three groups end up about the same level).
That's where this is going.
The super rich aren't harmed as they have so much money they can afford $5 gas and they also invest wisely to hedge it anyway.
The middle and upper middle class get a lower quality of life (socialism) as they can no longer afford to do the things and live the way they want.
All groups under middle class continue as they are because the government will continue increasing hand outs and now they can justify "COLA" increases to those benefits that are 8% annually (socialism).
So, you end up with a super rich elite class and everyone else is flattened and near equal underneath them (middle class and upper middle class go lower due to inflation and levels below them rise due to increased government benefits so all three groups end up about the same level).
That's where this is going.
I don't think the "leak" to the WSJ about 75 being on the table was an accident. I think you see the 75 today and 100 for July. After that, who knows?
We had so much money in the system after years of QE and pandemic-related stimulus that we had to create new asset classes to absorb it all. Because we're so overtilted it's going to take a bold move in the opposite direction to get it under control. Slowing things down to the point of a mild recession in order to allow the current supply imbalances to moderate wouldn't be the end of the world.
We had so much money in the system after years of QE and pandemic-related stimulus that we had to create new asset classes to absorb it all. Because we're so overtilted it's going to take a bold move in the opposite direction to get it under control. Slowing things down to the point of a mild recession in order to allow the current supply imbalances to moderate wouldn't be the end of the world.
.75 is my guess. The market reaction? You'd expect a dump that's why it will probably pop.
50
75 is fake news. Its crazy how stuff like this spreads. Not happening.
75 is fake news. Its crazy how stuff like this spreads. Not happening.
I think the leak was intentional to prepare everyone.
75
75
Bonfire97 said:
Fed isn't serious about inflation. I think they are only going to raise rates just enough to have something to lower once the recession hits to make it look like they have a "dial to turn". This whole thing was engineered from the start to convert the US to socialism. The US government wants inflation. Why?
The super rich aren't harmed as they have so much money they can afford $5 gas and they also invest wisely to hedge it anyway.
The middle and upper middle class get a lower quality of life (socialism) as they can no longer afford to do the things and live the way they want.
All groups under middle class continue as they are because the government will continue increasing hand outs and now they can justify "COLA" increases to those benefits that are 8% annually (socialism).
So, you end up with a super rich elite class and everyone else is flattened and near equal underneath them (middle class and upper middle class go lower due to inflation and levels below them rise due to increased government benefits so all three groups end up about the same level).
That's where this is going.
Every time they do this they amount to dial back gets less and less. Ultimately it will end in absolute disaster. Maybe one more nutshot like this?
The fed is a disaster. damned if they do and damned if they dont.
i actually agree that ledning needs to be reeled in and higher rate is a good way to do it.
that said, I firmly believe that the market for mortgages needs to be held relatively constant through time. It is wrong what we do to homeowners via the mortgage rate market. We all have so much tied up in home equity.
i actually agree that ledning needs to be reeled in and higher rate is a good way to do it.
that said, I firmly believe that the market for mortgages needs to be held relatively constant through time. It is wrong what we do to homeowners via the mortgage rate market. We all have so much tied up in home equity.
can ANYONE explain how we have heard for literally decades that higher rates are bad for stocks...
and now when the Fed may be raising rates the most in 34 years- the stock market is up?
and now when the Fed may be raising rates the most in 34 years- the stock market is up?
Investors want to get inflation under control.LMCane said:
can ANYONE explain how we have heard for literally decades that higher rates are bad for stocks...
and now when the Fed may be raising rates the most in 34 years- the stock market is up?
Everything was sweet at ~3%. I'll argue that RE shouldn't be immune to risk, it isnt sound. A ton of investors went head in the last two years, and the housing market shouldn't be saved from risky positions. Its a giant cluster, but here we are.evestor1 said:
The fed is a disaster. damned if they do and damned if they dont.
i actually agree that ledning needs to be reeled in and higher rate is a good way to do it.
that said, I firmly believe that the market for mortgages needs to be held relatively constant through time. It is wrong what we do to homeowners via the mortgage rate market. We all have so much tied up in home equity.
Oversold yesterday on the speculation of a rate adjustment of .75, so just correcting. Market is always forward looking, and the rate hike was already priced in before today.LMCane said:
can ANYONE explain how we have heard for literally decades that higher rates are bad for stocks...
and now when the Fed may be raising rates the most in 34 years- the stock market is up?
Scientific said:Everything was sweet at ~3%. I'll argue that RE shouldn't be immune to risk, it isnt sound. A ton of investors went head in the last two years, and the housing market shouldn't be saved from risky positions. Its a giant cluster, but here we are.evestor1 said:
The fed is a disaster. damned if they do and damned if they dont.
i actually agree that ledning needs to be reeled in and higher rate is a good way to do it.
that said, I firmly believe that the market for mortgages needs to be held relatively constant through time. It is wrong what we do to homeowners via the mortgage rate market. We all have so much tied up in home equity.
Doesnt need to be 3%, 5%, or 10%, but it does need more certainty. The common household cannot survive up and down swings of 5%. On a 400k house (which all homes are 400k or more now) ... damn.
AggieMainland said:
50
75 is fake news. Its crazy how stuff like this spreads. Not happening.
AggieMainland said:
50
75 is fake news. Its crazy how stuff like this spreads. Not happening.
Do you have a newsletter?
75 bps it is.
What do I win?
What do I win?
I'm such an idiot. LOL. I've been wrong about everything lately
Thriller said:AggieMainland said:
50
75 is fake news. Its crazy how stuff like this spreads. Not happening.
It's the arrogance and certainty that gets me.
AggieMainland said:
I'm such an idiot. LOL. I've been wrong about everything lately
Meh so has everyone. Don't let it bother you. Even if we bash you a little here because we all need laughs these days.
0.75% just now. Rates to jump to 3.4% by year end. Currently 1.5%
Edit - had wrong number for year end
Edit - had wrong number for year end
Jet Black said:AggieMainland said:
50
75 is fake news. Its crazy how stuff like this spreads. Not happening.
Do you have a newsletter?
Combines their newsletter with the "The reason we do not need to be worried about inflation" newsletter, both 2019 graduates from TAMU econ.
Wish you could transfer a mortgage at the existing rate, everything from the past few years would be worth a ton.
So with them choosing to go 75 bps now, what do y'all think they will do next month? Think they will still go for the full 100bps so many are calling for regardless of the next CPI print? I don't think they can do that. That would send the treasury market in full chaos mode.
The Treasury market can absorb 100 bps. Chaos comes from being surprised. If it's telegraphed the market will have a month to react.
topher06 said:
Wish you could transfer a mortgage at the existing rate, everything from the past few years would be worth a ton.
I got a 15 yr at 2% last summer that adds up to about 40K in interest.
Same loan now would total 111K in interest at 5.12%
Or almost 400 a month on the mortgage
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