Physics, Entropy, Bitcoin and Inelastic Money

5,295 Views | 50 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Adverse Event
LOYAL AG
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AG
Adverse Event said:

Right, it's a meme. Just one you have to lug around and be cautious displaying it ostentiously.
That's fine but at least it works when the power goes out.
Adverse Event
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How long is the power out, is the prevailing sentiment on whether it "works."

And it only works when other humans find value in bits of shiny metal meme money over actual useable supplies or services and are willing to hold it. I still think this is only feasible when there is a threat of violence behind the shiny meme money:
Quote:

"oh yeah gold is valuable the king loves the stuff."


I'm enjoying reading through this:
https://talesoftimesforgotten.com/2020/03/18/how-much-were-gold-coins-really-worth-during-the-middle-ages/

In no power world, what's the pig:gold ratio?
LOYAL AG
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AG
Adverse Event said:

How long is the power out, is the prevailing sentiment on whether it "works."

And it only works when other humans find value in bits of shiny metal meme money over actual useable supplies or services and are willing to hold it. I still think this is only feasible when there is a threat of violence behind the shiny meme money:
Quote:

"oh yeah gold is valuable the king loves the stuff."


I'm enjoying reading through this:
https://talesoftimesforgotten.com/2020/03/18/how-much-were-gold-coins-really-worth-during-the-middle-ages/

In no power world, what's the pig:gold ratio?
Gold has thousands of years of history establishing it's value. Denigrating that by calling it meme money because you think we should see something else in the same light is begging me to not take you seriously. Gold will always have value because people will always agree it has value. I can say that with supreme confidence because all of history is on my side. If/when we are ever trading pigs for gold there won't be anything else available for money and crypto won't be functional at all, that's always been my core premise on this subject. IOW when we're trading pigs for gold that's post-apocalyptic to me.

How long is the power out? Don't know, probably depends on the part of the world you're in. The fact is that north of 10% of the world's population doesn't have electricity and 40% of the world doesn't have sufficient energy to boil water reliably yet somehow we think they'll adopt a currency 100% dependent on reliable electricity. Or do those people not matter? Maybe they don't as I doubt they use dollars either. Just providing a reality check of sorts.

Turn those stats upside down, what portion of the world has such a steady supply of electricity that they would be willing to bet it's up "all the time" and thus be willing to adopt crypto as a primary currency? The US and western Europe, obviously. Australia. Japan. South Korea, probably. That's about it and what is that? 20%? 30%? This notion that tangible money will be replaced with crypto in our lifetimes is a VERY first world conversation that simply isn't practical. It's the definition of mental masturbation. We can have these conversations because all of our basic life needs are provided for which makes us unique not only in today's world but for almost all of history.
Adverse Event
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LOYAL AG said:

Adverse Event said:

How long is the power out, is the prevailing sentiment on whether it "works."

And it only works when other humans find value in bits of shiny metal meme money over actual useable supplies or services and are willing to hold it. I still think this is only feasible when there is a threat of violence behind the shiny meme money:
Quote:

"oh yeah gold is valuable the king loves the stuff."


I'm enjoying reading through this:
https://talesoftimesforgotten.com/2020/03/18/how-much-were-gold-coins-really-worth-during-the-middle-ages/

In no power world, what's the pig:gold ratio?
Gold has thousands of years of history establishing it's value. Denigrating that by calling it meme money because you think we should see something else in the same light is begging me to not take you seriously. Gold will always have value because people will always agree it has value. I can say that with supreme confidence because all of history is on my side. If/when we are ever trading pigs for gold there won't be anything else available for money and crypto won't be functional at all, that's always been my core premise on this subject. IOW when we're trading pigs for gold that's post-apocalyptic to me.
always. always. always. It'll always be that way no matter wut.

Except it hasnt ALWAYS been that way. Many cultures didn't value gold preferring weapons and livestock for trade over gold. Silver was preferred by vikings for a variety of reasons and much of South America had no value for gold outside of jewelry/art.

If the lights go out gold isnt valuable anymore than bitcoin unless the lights come back on and then why would you need gold over bitcoin unless youre an artisan crafting gold jewelry?

How long is the power out? Don't know, probably depends on the part of the world you're in. The fact is that north of 10% of the world's population doesn't have electricity and 40% of the world doesn't have sufficient energy to boil water reliably yet somehow we think they'll adopt a currency 100% dependent on reliable electricity.
Visualization: https://ourworldindata.org/exports/number-of-people-with-and-without-electricity-access_v4_850x600.svg

Or do those people not matter? Maybe they don't as I doubt they use dollars either. I can guarantee they dont use gold for trade
Just providing a reality check of sorts.
is the world getting more reliable or less reliable in regards to energy and internet access and uptime? I'll hang up and listen whether we should be planning on the world from 5,000 years ago or planning on the world suffering under the tyranny of Moore's Law a few decades in the future. Heres an interactive map showing %of population with internet access by continent and country in the last 20 or so years: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-individuals-using-the-internet?time=latest

Turn those stats upside down, what portion of the world has such a steady supply of electricity that they would be willing to bet it's up "all the time" and thus be willing to adopt crypto as a primary currency? The US and western Europe, obviously. Australia. Japan. South Korea, probably. That's about it and what is that? 20%? 30%? This notion that tangible money will be replaced with crypto in our lifetimes is a VERY first world conversation that simply isn't practical. It's the definition of mental masturbation. We can have these conversations because all of our basic life needs are provided for which makes us unique not only in today's world but for almost all of history.
bitcoin doesn't require 100% local electrical uptime to be successful globally, not sure where that requirement came from but that's a personal irrational expectation. However,
the trend shows increased access to reliable energy not decreased. Again are we planning on the next 50 years or are we planning to live in the human civilization 5000 years ago? Lets say we plan for both instances as likely to occur, what ratio of your energy expenditure today should be stored in future versus past stores of value?


tangible money is rare considering all of the money in existence. Most exist on digital ledgers between institutions and governments with only a % of the total in the hands of the common person. What percentage of the US dollar is tangible, pray tell?

Maybe 3-10% of my customers actually use cash to pay for anything, unless they are paying off their credit card balance.

The billion some odd Chinese have no cash, tangible money is exceedingly rare and decreasing everyday whether due to technology or oppressive government preferences. Did you forget them or is the lack of mental masturbation clogging up neural pathways up there?




If i had to choose between gold or silver, I'd choose silver in the apocalypse as it at least has anti-bacterial/microbial qualities. Gold will be as valuable as baseball cards, unless yoire a jeweler or are capable of higher technology needing contacts for electronics.

Gold has historically been a settlement layer for institutions and governments and the people used bronze or other metal coins at some exchange rate, rarely touching Gold in the form of money outside of rare circumstances.



Running another scenario, who's familiar with the British Empire and the glass beads used as currency between tribes in Africa? The tribes traded relatively rare glass beads as they didn't have a glass manufacturing industry at the time. In comes Britain, recognizes that glass beads are money here and as they owned a significant glass making industry they began manufacturing beads. Brits bought all types of good and slaves and services using this method until the markets collapsed due to massive inflation of the bead market. IIRC after the collapse they transitioned the markets to using British currency further weakening the ability of the tribes to trade as they had in the past.

Bring it to the future where we have no power anymore (post-apocalyptic): Majority of the gold exists above ground, not needing to be mined (proof of work limiting supply doesn't exist)

what would a relatively common metal (especially if access to hoardes of gold stock is available) be useful in lieu of a relatively uncommon item based on the location of said markets (shells in mountain regions, gems on shorelines, rai stones, etc)? Is it just because Egyptians (an advanced civilization) valued it and set a ratio of gold:silver and coated the tops of the pyramid in gold (possibly for the electrical conduction if we assume Graham Hancock is accurate thebthe pyramids were built to harness electricity on some method)? After apocalypse it would take a few hundred years for that sophistication of markets and people and organization to find value to that purpose...

I just can't imagine the scenario where gold is useful outside of very rare circumstances and only temporarily as money UNLESS the lights come back on relatively quickly. Any scenario where the lights stay on, there are better forms of money or more valuable items to trade for instead of gold.

/endrantmentalmasturbation

aggiebq03+
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People thought gold was valuable before there were light bulbs.

People think gold is still valuable now that there are light bulbs.

People will still think gold is valuable when it all goes to **** and there aren't light bulbs again.

#Obvious_Is_Obvious
Adverse Event
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Brawndo, it's what plants crave...got it.
aggiebq03+
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Adverse Event said:

Brawndo make the plants grow. Got it.

No…I wasn't trying to make an argument a particular set of 1s and 0s are for some reason more valuable than another set because…well because. That's the Brawndo argument my man.
Adverse Event
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aggiebq03+ said:

People thought gold was valuable before there were light bulbs.
*grunts* shiny rock from sun God
People think gold is still valuable now that there are light bulbs.
shiny metal conducts electricity. And also from sun god
People will still think gold is valuable when it all goes to **** and there aren't light bulbs again.
shiny metal from sun god
#Obvious_Is_Obvious
#Brawndo_is_brawndo
aggiebq03+
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So no real response?

#surprised

Good luck with the next username as well when you finally get this one banned.
Adverse Event
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Okay, let's be real.

People (past) believe "x" therefore people (future) believe "x" is considered a real statement that deserves an honest discussion?

And my relating said statement to Idiocracy is inaccurate?

What about these two statements aren't the same, ie circular reasoning with no foundation?
tysker
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AG
Whats wrong with Brawndo? Plants do need electrolytes like sodium and potassium.
Adverse Event
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I hoard brawndo because it's ALWAYS been good for plants, and people, and therefore WILL ALWAYS be valuable.
tysker
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AG
You may be correct but the underlying ingredients of Brawndo are fairly abundant. Could a competitor or substitute to Brawndo emerge? Is Brawndo the best technology to sate a plant's cravings?
Adverse Event
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BRAWNDO IS BRAWNDO! It's what plants CRAVE!

IM OFFENDED!

Someone ban tysker!

"Thinking is difficult, that's why most people judge" -Carl Jung
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Adverse Event
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