Ugghn - What a Year

4,884 Views | 30 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by cjsag94
Gabster43213
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S&P Down 20%
NASDAQ Down 34%

Time for some Aspirin.
Philip J Fry
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AG
Hold on to your butts. This was just a correction. Just wait until the actual bear market shows up.
Ag CPA
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AG
Kind of amazed how bad this year stacks up, CNBC showed a graphic noting that the S&P's 20% drop this year is the fourth worst ever!

Knew it was bad but feel like it could have been worse, probably should be down another 15% right now given where projected earnings and interest rates are trending, in my worthless opinion.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
How much lower do you see it going, realistically?

Surely not another 20%.
Philip J Fry
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AG
20-30%
kyledr04
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AG
Horrible. So much money down the toilet
not hedge
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I got another 50 years in the market. I'll be okay. Drop more so I can DCA my basis
DannyDuberstein
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The recession hasn't even started yet according to our inflation-stat-manipulating, recession-definition-gaming overlords
Gabster43213
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I feel like getting out of equities for the first quarter of 2023.

Of course, I thought about moving to all cash in February of this year but didn't act on it. Instead, I moved the majority of my portfolio to the "safety" of bonds (chuckle).

At least my loss is in the single digit range.
BTHOtrolls
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not hedge said:

I got another 50 years in the market. I'll be okay. Drop more so I can DCA my basis


User Name Checks Out!

If the FED is backed into a corner in 2023 then I expect they'll introduce the narrative that there are benefits to raising the 2% target inflation rate.

The USA has too much debt as a country to maintain these higher rates for a prolonged period. The path of least resistance for the government will be devaluing the national debt and artificially raising tax revenue through inflation.

Ag CPA said:

Kind of amazed how bad this year stacks up, CNBC showed a graphic noting that the S&P's 20% drop this year is the fourth worst ever!

Knew it was bad but feel like it could have been worse, probably should be down another 15% right now given where projected earnings and interest rates are trending, in my worthless opinion.


There was a 20% drop in value, but also have to consider the 8% inflation, so an all S&P portfolio's purchasing power is down 28%!
Bonfire1996
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Quote:

The USA has too much debt as a country to maintain these higher rates for a prolonged period. The path of least resistance for the government will be devaluing the national debt and artificially raising tax revenue through inflation.
This
And to artificially raise tax revenue through inflation, they need a good economy with people working.
jagvocate
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AG
$gold and $silver say "Hey"
AgOutsideAustin
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Old man yells at cloud here.

I think the stock mart news is just another news blip now and not really followed. The major media is not going to cover it because you know why plus so many people still equate the market to the Dow. Yes including younger people. They don't realize the S&P and Nasdaq being down much more. They don't know finance. We all know tons of older people don't know finance either. Plus we are all in a Tik Tok world now including older people like me. Used to be folks scrolling down Facebook screens now they watch Tik Tok or Instagram posts constantly.

Crazy just how uninformed or a lack of wanting to be informed society we have now. But look I have all these followers now and my post got liked a bunch.

Now get off my lawn.
12thAngryMan
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Just updated my personal balance sheet, compared net worth today vs. YE2021, and...yuck. Basically flat YOY thanks to the market. We have plenty of time left on the investment horizon as well so I'm not tempted to make any rash moves. However, I liked the early years where my hard work and contributions had more impact than market performance.
TikkaShooter
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How are we not basking in this opportunity to buy buy buy?

I mean, I get it. Portfolios are down.

But if you have any long term time in the market - 10, 20, 30 years....then dont even look. Just buy baby buy.
JohnLA762
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

How much lower do you see it going, realistically?

Surely not another 20%.


Statistically, we could see a quick 10-15% drop in Q1 of 2023. After that, hang on. To the moon!
$30,000 Millionaire
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Gabster, I told you how to make 50% with LABU….
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
IslandAg76
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AG
If you have more than five years to invest, there are a lot of that are on sale.
Dr. Horrible
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12thAngryMan said:

Just updated my personal balance sheet, compared net worth today vs. YE2021, and...yuck. Basically flat YOY thanks to the market. We have plenty of time left on the investment horizon as well so I'm not tempted to make any rash moves. However, I liked the early years where my hard work and contributions had more impact than market performance.

I was very similar. But I will take flat as a huge win overall given what the market did!
12thAngryMan
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***Flat including my investment contributions for the year (and other minor changes in net worth like payoff of mortgage)
JSKolache
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Thats what you get when every government in every developed nation cranks up their currency printers. Brrrrrrrrrr. Trillions in fake money is a coke binge and now we are all crashing hard everywhere.
Dr. Horrible
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Oh, I'm aware. Same here. But I was honestly expecting negative when I ran the numbers, so flat was a pleasant surprise.
AgOutsideAustin
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Very good for some of y'all to be flat, stock market and home value drop took too big a chunk from me to offset any contributions.
gunan01
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Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy
Dirt 05
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https://www.ft.com/content/9c075e41-1eda-4e53-8d0e-d4ed048c529d

About 2/3's way down in the article is a scatterplot with S&P returns on x-axis and US bond returns on y-axis. 2022 finished as an outlier in terms of negative combined returns.
gunan01
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How is this not a great opportunity to buy AAPL, GOOG, AMZN?
Bonfire1996
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gunan01 said:

How is this not a great opportunity to buy AAPL, GOOG, AMZN?
Because their sales haven't been hurt yet from job losses, which are coming
$30,000 Millionaire
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gunan01 said:

How is this not a great opportunity to buy AAPL, GOOG, AMZN?


I like Amazon the best of those three (AI mixed with consumer goods).

Just out of curiosity and I'm not asking to be offensive, but if you don't mind, please lay out why AAPL is a great buy right now. In my opinion it's the worst of those three.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
EliteZags
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what's everyone thinking with 401K contributions this year? $22,500 max over a standard 24 pay periods is $937.50/period, I'm considering something up to $1500/period or so would max in about 8 months, mine's just Vanguard 500 index
Have some cash built up in MM and year end bonus coming which thinking to max backdoor Roth over the next month or two as well along with sporadic taxable contributions to VTSAX
AggieMainland
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Gabster43213 said:

I feel like getting out of equities for the first quarter of 2023.

Of course, I thought about moving to all cash in February of this year but didn't act on it. Instead, I moved the majority of my portfolio to the "safety" of bonds (chuckle).

At least my loss is in the single digit range.
Timing the market. This won't end well. Just keep buying.
cjsag94
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While the market was down for the year as stated, which is the number everyone will run with... It was really only down first half of the year (through June) and has been largely flat since then (albeit volatile).

Just pointing this out because the psychology of investing often feels worse than reality, as people look to sit out waiting for the fall to stop. As for now, it stopped in June.

Also, the only thing a high market is good for (from an investing standpoint) is making you feel good when you look at your balance or if you need the money today. Low markets and especially volatility are best for increasing wealth over time.
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