Need another Paul Volcker at the helm.ac04 said:
the fed is trapped and it is hilarious to me that anyone believes powell has the stomach to actually do what needs to be done. guess we'll see.
Blackstone defaulting on a loan could be Lehman Bros level stuff. Here we go!
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Last: 2 yr ago by Definitely Not A Cop
ac04 said:
i think perhaps we are agreeing with each other without realizing it. they are going to screw us all again. i am not the person you need to tell to stop falling for it, i understand exactly what they're doing and what they will do next and why.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Woodedge said:Need another Paul Volcker at the helm.ac04 said:
the fed is trapped and it is hilarious to me that anyone believes powell has the stomach to actually do what needs to be done. guess we'll see.
Not sure he could do anything. We were $3T in debt back then. We are $32T in debt now.
Heineken-Ashi said:ac04 said:
i think perhaps we are agreeing with each other without realizing it. they are going to screw us all again. i am not the person you need to tell to stop falling for it, i understand exactly what they're doing and what they will do next and why.
Are you a deeply closeted Bitcoiner?
What bitcoin’s detractors don’t understand is monetary economics, computer science, software engineering, network protocols, and electrical systems.
It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
Heineken Light is what I keep in my frige and has been my go to for over a decade.
All beer in green bottles = piss. Carry on.
Not this one but let me guess - you're a Bud Light guy?
Also piss. IPA's are also piss.wilhunting said:
Not this one but let me guess - you're a Bud Light guy?
I only drink Porters and Stouts.
Cyp0111 said:
I dont think Blackstone defaulting on ringfenced assets is that big of a deal. SVB looks to be poor duration matching between the 10 year and deposits. They're getting crushed as their customer based loaded up on deposits and has subsequently pulled deposits as tech portcos and vs burn cash and search for more attractive yield.
I think commercial real estate sitting on the balance sheets of regional banks could be a big risk. Specifically, office.
I know people try to correlate everything to Lehman, however, that was a very different situation where essentially the entire financial sector had negative equity when marking for the toxic assets on balance sheet.
I think this is what the issue is for regional banks. It doesn't have much, if anything, to do with SVB. Its the 3 year leases signed in 2018 and 2019 before covid hit that have recently ended, and those offices are vacant and some have been vacant for months or years.
What was the FIRST thing a smart person would have done with (big) lottery winnings in 2019? Bought an office building.
What was the LAST thing a smart person would have done with those same lottery winnings in 2021? Same answer, except maybe for retail space in certain areas.
Agree. the duration matching is a big deal. The bigger deal is that people need to trust the regional/local banks to hold deposits over $250K which is most businesses or people that the bank wants to have a relationship with.
If I had a sports book where I could make huge bets with the customers, win those bets 55% of the time, take the winnings and quickly exchange them for physical assets, and had a magic printer to make money for me any time I made some bad bets...I would be a bank.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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AG
This will be another reason you see a push for RTO
This doesn't make sense to me. If a company can save millions or billions by reducing the amount of office space they require to operate, what would a real estate collapse do to change the equation? They are still saving that money by having more people work remotely, whether their lease price goes up or down.
There is a conflict between micro and macro economics at play here. Using an extreme example, if ALL businesses that could go fully remote going forward did so at the same time, that theoretically helps their profit margins in the short-term and will have mixed micro economic effects in the intermediate to long-term with winners and losers within the shifting dynamic. This really isn't that different from what normally happens, so the pain of some losers isn't that scary from this perspective.Definitely Not A Cop said:
This doesn't make sense to me. If a company can save millions or billions by reducing the amount of office space they require to operate, what would a real estate collapse do to change the equation? They are still saving that money by having more people work remotely, whether their lease price goes up or down.
At the macro level, the extreme shift to WFH would crater real estate. That would also likely crater urban hubs as less people need to live in these urban centers and the spreading out of people will destroy local businesses currently set up to support the old way. Every industry sub industry has its own supply chains, support organizations, niches lenders, etc... that would be negatively impacted from downstream effects. This would be a bubble of massive proportions popping that would almost certainly cause much deeper longer recessions.
When recessions happen, velocity of money slows due to tighter lending, but more importantly due to higher savings rates (lower spend/investment rates). This can translate to macro dynamics of RTO favoring some level, even if counter to micro suggesting it is optimal as it doesn't matter how much margins improve if top-line is crushed.
Thanks, great reply.
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