Hong Kong Currency

2,218 Views | 12 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by BoDog
BoDog
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AG
I think Andy Beal is onto something. How can the average noob like me bet against/short this currency? What does the process look like or is there a simple fund that does it for you? No experience at all in these waters.

TIA!!
jwoodmd
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BoDog said:

I think Andy Beal is onto something. How can the average noob like me bet against/short this currency? What does the process look like or is there a simple fund that does it for you? No experience at all in these waters.

TIA!!
"The Hong Kong dollar moves within a tight band spanning 7.75 and 7.85 against the U.S. dollar. Whenever the currency touches either of the two bounds, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the de facto central bank, moves to intervene."

Not sure what you think you'll accomplish.
exp
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AG
And how exactly do they intervene? What are the tradeoffs of this action in both directions?
YouBet
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AG
BoDog said:

I think Andy Beal is onto something. How can the average noob like me bet against/short this currency? What does the process look like or is there a simple fund that does it for you? No experience at all in these waters.

TIA!!


Remember that any starting premise here is "China is asshoe."
Red Pear Luke
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AG
Andy Beal is the kind of fellow to have an employee show up to his office at Beal Bank and present the info that the employee has spent all week accumulating this data. You would give him a 10 minute pseudo Q&A convo where he's behind a giant desk of monitors that are all covered and screen protected so you have no idea what he needs this data for. Nor would you see his face or really talk about how the cowboys sucked last night.

He's the kind of individual that will buy a specific 90s version of a certain expedition type SUV vehicle. And pay $250K to retrofit that expedition type vehicle with bullet proof glass and impeccable engines so in the event that STHF, you have a huge capable vehicle for the zombie apocalypse.

Needless to say, Andy Beal is not 6 moves ahead, he is thinking 15 moves ahead. He's based off a wealth of knowledge and he's probably got his reasons to be short HK dollar but there is 100x more depth to that trade that you'll never know or understand.
Spaceship
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AG
BoDog said:

I think Andy Beal is onto something. How can the average noob like me bet against/short this currency? What does the process look like or is there a simple fund that does it for you? No experience at all in these waters.

TIA!!

What is he saying/doing? I'm not finding anything online about this.
BoDog
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AG
Thinks the hong kong dollar is headed to the ****ter and is betting an ass load of money that he is correct.
BoDog
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AG
BoDog said:

Thinks the hong kong dollar is headed to the ****ter and is betting an ass load of money that he is correct.
This is far from my level of expertise so my question is how does one short a currency?
Casey TableTennis
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AG
Currency swaps. You could also take futures positions on physical goods, expressing your currency view into how it is settled. These both require meaningful capital/risk.
KingofHazor
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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

Andy Beal is the kind of fellow to have an employee show up to his office at Beal Bank and present the info that the employee has spent all week accumulating this data. You would give him a 10 minute pseudo Q&A convo where he's behind a giant desk of monitors that are all covered and screen protected so you have no idea what he needs this data for. Nor would you see his face or really talk about how the cowboys sucked last night.

He's the kind of individual that will buy a specific 90s version of a certain expedition type SUV vehicle. And pay $250K to retrofit that expedition type vehicle with bullet proof glass and impeccable engines so in the event that STHF, you have a huge capable vehicle for the zombie apocalypse.

Needless to say, Andy Beal is not 6 moves ahead, he is thinking 15 moves ahead. He's based off a wealth of knowledge and he's probably got his reasons to be short HK dollar but there is 100x more depth to that trade that you'll never know or understand.
You've worked for Andy, have you?

When it comes to financial matters, Andy is a savant with an intuitive understanding that almost everyone else in the industry lacks.

Sometimes Andy's moves are simple and obvious once he's done them. For example, he was the first to realize that junk bonds backed by first mortgages were mispriced as junk bonds and should have been priced as mortgages. It's impossible for an individual investor to follow Andy's lead consistently, however, since most of his moves are not reported and those that are reported are done so only months after the fact.
RoyIII_Ag08
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AG
I'm curious if OP saw or heard anything specific that prompted this post. I live in HK so this caught my attention.

I don't foresee any events that would seriously harm the HKD. Beijing has strong incentives not to mess with it.

-- Theoretically, what would happen to currencies pegged against the Dollar if US defaults on debt?
-- Does anyone else have insights for the sake of discussion?
wessimo
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AG
I wrote a paper in business school about this topic 15 years ago. The Hong Kong dollar peg will likely go away eventually, which would diminish the value of the HKD somewhat. Timing is the big unknown... It will be whenever Beijing finds it politically expedient.
BoDog
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AG
I am traveling for work at the moment, but if memory serves I think it was an article several weeks back in the Dallas Business Journal. I am at a client's site but can try to hunt it down later. I found it interesting, but I admit much of the material is way over my head....
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