Can I retire?

21,106 Views | 102 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by insulator_king
South Platte
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In reply to AgOutsideAustin • 10:23a, 6/29/23
AgOutsideAustin said:
I look at these numbers and they don't seem real. How will people make it? That's my earlier point for those that have saved regularly and have a decent amount saved ( more than all these averages) are they really running out of or outliving their money ? I saw something yesterday that said only 10% of people retire with at least one million and we are " what if" and "yeah but" the OP's 2.4 million saved at 58 ?
I wonder what the stats look like for the average American with a college degree. Has to be much higher. Lots of blue collar families (those that didn't work union jobs with nice pension) bringing the stats down. I guess they are relying on social security and credit cards - I don't think credit card debt passes down to dependents after death.

I'm pushing 50 and pretty sure my wages have been well below most of you on this board. I'm just now making six figures. I haven't made the best investment decisions, but have spent conservatively and saved when I could. Including my home equity, wife and I are already pushing 1.2M net worth and will have a small pension when I retire. I can't imagine where I would be financially had I chosen a higher paying field. Or worked harder. I've left multiple jobs because I wasn't willing to spend extra time working that I could spend with my kids.

OP sounds like a pretty conservative spender as well. $2.4M will ensure an amazing retirement. Congrats brother!
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JobSecurity
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In reply to South Platte • 10:51a, 6/29/23
AG
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scf/dataviz/scf/chart/#series:Retirement_Accounts;demographic:edcl;population:1,2,3,4;units:median

In 2019 the medians were:
$20,000 - No high school diploma
$40,000 - High school diploma
$41,000 - Some college
$119,000 - Bachelors or higher
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billydean05
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10:56a, 6/29/23
The best way to retire early is to have roughly 5% of portfolio or $120,000 in cash. This way if there is a bear market right at the beginning you do not have to sell equities. Use 15% or about $350,000 in a laddered 1-5 year cds with $70 k maturing each year. Use 15-20% to invest in individual bonds or cmos that mature in 7 to 30 years and ladder these out. Use the other 60-65% to invest in equities and equity mutual funds with a high percentage focused on growth and income or goo high quality dividend paying companies that have a long track record of increasing the dividend. If the market is a bear market and down for the first five years do not sell your equities and live off of cash and cds and interest and dividends. If the market is rising trim your equities at the end of the year and reinvest your cd that comes due in another 5 year cd. The biggest risk is a huge bear market at the beginning of your retirement and this strategy should mitigate most all of that risk.
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Quinn
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In reply to AgOutsideAustin • 11:15a, 6/29/23
AG
AgOutsideAustin said:
I look at these numbers and they don't seem real. How will people make it? That's my earlier point for those that have saved regularly and have a decent amount saved ( more than all these averages) are they really running out of or outliving their money ? I saw something yesterday that said only 10% of people retire with at least one million and we are " what if" and "yeah but" the OP's 2.4 million saved at 58 ?
It's hard to fathom for people who spend their free time on a Business and Investments message board, but people really don't save at all for retirement (including a ton of white collar and college educated people). It sounds crazy, but its true.
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South Platte
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In reply to Quinn • 11:26a, 6/29/23
Quinn said:
AgOutsideAustin said:
I look at these numbers and they don't seem real. How will people make it? That's my earlier point for those that have saved regularly and have a decent amount saved ( more than all these averages) are they really running out of or outliving their money ? I saw something yesterday that said only 10% of people retire with at least one million and we are " what if" and "yeah but" the OP's 2.4 million saved at 58 ?
It's hard to fathom for people who spend their free time on a Business and Investments message board, but people really don't save at all for retirement (including a ton of white collar and college educated people). It sounds crazy, but its true.
Pretty confusing. There is supposed to be the greatest transfer of wealth happening in the history of the world yet Americans have no savings/retirement. I guess both can be true.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Quinn • 11:28a, 6/29/23
AG
Quinn said:
AgOutsideAustin said:
I look at these numbers and they don't seem real. How will people make it? That's my earlier point for those that have saved regularly and have a decent amount saved ( more than all these averages) are they really running out of or outliving their money ? I saw something yesterday that said only 10% of people retire with at least one million and we are " what if" and "yeah but" the OP's 2.4 million saved at 58 ?
It's hard to fathom for people who spend their free time on a Business and Investments message board, but people really don't save at all for retirement (including a ton of white collar and college educated people). It sounds crazy, but its true.
Not necessarily. Sitting in a stable salaried position isn't the reason many go to though the effort and time getting advanced degrees and gathering knowledge of industries and economics.

  • They're more likely to use that money to start their own companies. The sale of the company and assets is often their retirement plan. See the OP.
  • Or take a lessor salary for equity that often never pays off.

It would be like me saying it's hard to fathom people who spend their free time on a B&I board not understanding similar people taking risks to build something or try and achieve generational wealth. The majority don't succeed, but it just takes one.
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Kool
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In reply to Thriller • 5:07p, 7/1/23
AG
Thriller said:
This might be helpful - the updated Trinity Study for those who wish to read it instead of arguing past each other.

Updated Trinity Study
Thanks for. posting. How does this differ from a "Monte Carlo Trial"?
Background: my financial advisor did an estate planning and analysis and retirement projection for me a couple of years ago. Included was a "Probability of Success using 1,000 Monte Carlo Trials". My eyes were just glazing over everything as we went over it, and I honestly felt too financially illiterate to even ask a lot of questions. Therefore I will ask here.

Ideally, I would like to burn through savings only to a point, then have an amount left over in order to leave my heirs. This would, I assume, be a bit of a more difficult analysis as it would mean that I would preferably continue to gain investment income on the total amount of my portfolio, but only burn it down to an amount I would want to leave behind (not, instead, keep all of the principal intact or "die with nothing"). Is anyone aware of a simple calculation that could do that?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Casey TableTennis
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In reply to Kool • 5:16p, 7/1/23
AG
Your advisor should be able to customize that modeling to depict scenarios you want to see. If you don't want to have less than $X at death (todays $), that is the litmus test for if those trials pass or fail. Easy to incorporate.

If someone in their 50s to 60s has a confidence score in the 70s+, that is great if the model is robust and a touch conservative in a few assumptions. Scores at that level suggest funding well over 90% of goals in almost all scenarios, with an expected case of money left over that exceeds target.

As someone ages, the spend vs gift vs leave to heirs is easier to dial in given timelines shorten and less time for uncertainty.

This type of modeling is pretty difficult for someone in their 40s or younger, as the time horizon has much room for the good or bad side of risk to play out and influence future decisions in ways that are had to pre-contemplate.
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Robert L. Peters
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1:29p, 7/2/23
I'm almost to that point. My house is nearly paid off. Finished my big project (commercial building filled with tenants). I'm thinking another 3-5 years and then I'm out of this ***** I'll just work part time at HEB or continue my profession just not with all the overhead.
What you say, Paper Champion? I'm gonna beat you like a dog, a dog, you hear me!
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Kool
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In reply to Casey TableTennis • 3:28p, 7/2/23
AG
Casey TableTennis said:
Your advisor should be able to customize that modeling to depict scenarios you want to see. If you don't want to have less than $X at death (todays $), that is the litmus test for if those trials pass or fail. Easy to incorporate.

If someone in their 50s to 60s has a confidence score in the 70s+, that is great if the model is robust and a touch conservative in a few assumptions. Scores at that level suggest funding well over 90% of goals in almost all scenarios, with an expected case of money left over that exceeds target.

As someone ages, the spend vs gift vs leave to heirs is easier to dial in given timelines shorten and less time for uncertainty.

This type of modeling is pretty difficult for someone in their 40s or younger, as the time horizon has much room for the good or bad side of risk to play out and influence future decisions in ways that are had to pre-contemplate.
Thanks for the reply. It was a comprehensive financial analysis to look into where I had investments, where I needed to move things, need for forming Trusts, etc. It was worthwhile in that it picked up some stocks I had purchased that I really should have dumped but sort of, for lack of a better term, forgotten about, etc.

The Monte Carlo analysis came back with a 99+% chance of success in being able to fund my retirement level of spending. As I look back at the data points I gave them, I probably underestimated my monthly spending in retirement. Also, they took some income into perpetuity that I expect to expire at or about the time of my retirement. Nonetheless, it was a good exercise. I did the analysis at age 57, which I think was close enough to retirement to give good data.

Thanks, as always, for your responses.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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GoAgs92
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In reply to AgOutsideAustin • 9:38a, 7/3/23
AG
AgOutsideAustin said:
I look at these numbers and they don't seem real. How will people make it? That's my earlier point for those that have saved regularly and have a decent amount saved ( more than all these averages) are they really running out of or outliving their money ? I saw something yesterday that said only 10% of people retire with at least one million and we are " what if" and "yeah but" the OP's 2.4 million saved at 58 ?

My dad was a CFP and tried to get people to save more money, very few would do it.

They would say things like, "God will provide" and stuff like that.

those chumps will have to live off of SS.

The OP wants to live a good retirement life not a hand to mouth, so it's an interesting question. Hopefully the OP has some long term care insurance, those places will bleed you dry.
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AgLA06
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In reply to GoAgs92 • 9:44a, 7/3/23
AG
GoAgs92 said:
AgOutsideAustin said:
I look at these numbers and they don't seem real. How will people make it? That's my earlier point for those that have saved regularly and have a decent amount saved ( more than all these averages) are they really running out of or outliving their money ? I saw something yesterday that said only 10% of people retire with at least one million and we are " what if" and "yeah but" the OP's 2.4 million saved at 58 ?

My dad was a CFP and tried to get people to save more money, very few would do it.

They would say things like, "God will provide" and stuff like that.

those chumps will have to live off of SS.

The OP wants to live a good retirement life not a hand to mouth, so it's an interesting question. Hopefully the OP has some long term care insurance, those places will bleed you dry.
That's probably because their retirement was just numbers on a paper for your dad. While they watched their health and ability to enjoy life decline every year they got closer to a hypothetical 100% retirement number that was always just out of reach.

Here's a dirty little secret of retirement you only hear from those that have made it to the back end. They wish they had done it earlier. Because every year you slow down, ache more, and have more doctor's appointments that interfere with your ability to spend money in an account.

My grandparents are at that point now. They cancel more fun things a year than they now actually now do. Including their dream trip because they're too scared to be abroad with their current health conditions. He worked "one more year" for about 8 because the money was so good and it meant they could do more fun things longer later. He literally told me the other day not to make the same mistake.

But hey, their financial planner was impressed when they finally pulled the trigger to retire. And their kids will fight over the sizable amount of money their financial planner insisted they needed. So I'll be forced to be executor because they didn't get to spend it like someone else planned.
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htxag09
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In reply to AgLA06 • 10:03a, 7/3/23
AG
And my siblings and I are currently stressing about how we'll split/pay for my dad as he's aging, his retirement is running low, and health costs are likely to increase (which we saw with my mom who passed away from cancer).

Like everything, there is a balance.

Personally, I'd rather work a couple years too long and leave money to my kids than retire early, do all I want to, and then be a burden on my kids.

The other aspect of this conversation that isn't being talked about......live your life now. I could get a different job, working more, making more, and probably retire several years earlier. But I have a great work life balance, get 6 weeks of vacation a year, solid benefits, and honestly really like my job. The stuff we want to do, we're doing, we aren't waiting for retirement. Including spending time with my kid, we won't get this time back when he's 30 and we're retired.....
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GoAgs92
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In reply to AgLA06 • 10:11a, 7/3/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
GoAgs92 said:
AgOutsideAustin said:
I look at these numbers and they don't seem real. How will people make it? That's my earlier point for those that have saved regularly and have a decent amount saved ( more than all these averages) are they really running out of or outliving their money ? I saw something yesterday that said only 10% of people retire with at least one million and we are " what if" and "yeah but" the OP's 2.4 million saved at 58 ?

My dad was a CFP and tried to get people to save more money, very few would do it.

They would say things like, "God will provide" and stuff like that.

those chumps will have to live off of SS.

The OP wants to live a good retirement life not a hand to mouth, so it's an interesting question. Hopefully the OP has some long term care insurance, those places will bleed you dry.
That's probably because their retirement was just numbers on a paper for your dad. While they watched their health and ability to enjoy life decline every year they got closer to a hypothetical 100% retirement number that was always just out of reach.

Here's a dirty little secret of retirement you only hear from those that have made it to the back end. They wish they had done it earlier. Because every year you slow down, ache more, and have more doctor's appointments that interfere with your ability to spend money in an account.

My grandparents are at that point now. They cancel more fun things a year than they now actually now do. Including their dream trip because they're too scared to be abroad with their current health conditions. He worked "one more year" for about 8 because the money was so good and it meant they could do more fun things longer later. He literally told me the other day not to make the same mistake.

But hey, their financial planner was impressed when they finally pulled the trigger to retire. And their kids will fight over the sizable amount of money their financial planner insisted they needed. So I'll be forced to be executor because they didn't get to spend it like someone else planned.
Most of the people were in their 40s and 50s, not old geezers they had plenty of time to make a few simple changes.
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El Chupacabra
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In reply to South Platte • 10:38p, 7/3/23
South Platte said:
AgOutsideAustin said:
I look at these numbers and they don't seem real. How will people make it? That's my earlier point for those that have saved regularly and have a decent amount saved ( more than all these averages) are they really running out of or outliving their money ? I saw something yesterday that said only 10% of people retire with at least one million and we are " what if" and "yeah but" the OP's 2.4 million saved at 58 ?
I wonder what the stats look like for the average American with a college degree. Has to be much higher. Lots of blue collar families (those that didn't work union jobs with nice pension) bringing the stats down. I guess they are relying on social security and credit cards - I don't think credit card debt passes down to dependents after death.

I'm pushing 50 and pretty sure my wages have been well below most of you on this board. I'm just now making six figures. I haven't made the best investment decisions, but have spent conservatively and saved when I could. Including my home equity, wife and I are already pushing 1.2M net worth and will have a small pension when I retire. I can't imagine where I would be financially had I chosen a higher paying field. Or worked harder. I've left multiple jobs because I wasn't willing to spend extra time working that I could spend with my kids.

OP sounds like a pretty conservative spender as well. $2.4M will ensure an amazing retirement. Congrats brother!


And you're better for it. And your kids are better for it.
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aduey06
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5:42a, 7/7/23
With the stories about people waiting to travel and other bucket list items but not being able to enjoy it, I am curious what the OPs bucket list items and what they have or plan to complete.

Maybe it is that I am turning 40 and just starting to think about these things but also wondering when others start there bucket list or create other plans like short term things to complete over the next 5 years.
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Leeman
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8:14a, 7/7/23
If the money is too good to pass up to retire for, there maybe nothing stopping you from doing bucket lists items while you are sill getting paid. I'm taking more vacations as well as more exotic vacations now near the end.
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Rocky Rider
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In reply to Whirligigs • 12:16p, 7/10/23
AG
Whirligigs said:
You will work until you drop and you will like it.
And you will own nothing. Klaus Schwab
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JT05
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In reply to Leeman • 3:19p, 7/11/23
AG
Leeman said:
If the money is too good to pass up to retire for, there maybe nothing stopping you from doing bucket lists items while you are sill getting paid. I'm taking more vacations as well as more exotic vacations now near the end.


This is a very good point. To the poster above, his grandfather should have done a lot more during those last 8 years while he was getting paid. Sounds like he was in a position to retire so the extra money was bonus. At that point, start doing more of what you want. My FIL is doing this now. Built an incredibly successful business over the last 40+ years. Has no need to keep working, but he likes it and does whatever he wants travel wise so no need to "retire".
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AgLA06
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In reply to JT05 • 3:45p, 7/11/23
AG
The job he was working to stock pile money didn't allow for a lot of family time or vacations. It's why he was compensated so well. That's why he's realized it wasn't worth the money he won't spend to have worked those years for "financial security".
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JT05
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In reply to AgLA06 • 4:39p, 7/11/23
AG
I get it. It's obvious he was very good at whatever occupation this was. Maybe he could have used that as leverage during those last 8 years. But not trying to bag on your granddad. At the end of the day, he did what he felt was right at the time and I can totally understand the difficulty of walking away from a lot of money.
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cevans_40
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5:21p, 7/11/23
AG
Good Lord, I hope OP can retire. If he can't, I never will.
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EvenPar
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6:47p, 7/11/23
AG
OP, what's your cost basis on the business you sold?

You now have between 4 and 5 months to quickly figure out how to best deploy your sale proceeds in order to minimize your tax liability from the sale.

If all the proceeds go straight into a fund or the market you will owe max tax.
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AgOutsideAustin
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In reply to AgLA06 • 7:24p, 7/11/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
The job he was working to stock pile money didn't allow for a lot of family time or vacations. It's why he was compensated so well. That's why he's realized it wasn't worth the money he won't spend to have worked those years for "financial security".


Tough way to a get one but your Grandfather gave you an incredible life lesson.
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AgOutsideAustin
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In reply to up-n-aTm • 10:00a, 9/8/23
AG
up-n-aTm said:
Here's my situation:
58 year old couple, just sold our business. Have $1.3 million in cash and $1.1 million in a 2030 target fund. Only debt is a $130,000 home equity loan at 2.3% interest. SS at age 67 will be about $7k per month, if it's still available. Kids are thru school so the only future major expenses are unplanned at this time.

Can I retire? What should I do to maximize income off of the existing assets? Really don't want to work any longer but worried about out living our money.

Thanks!



Checking back in OP, hope you were able to make it work for you?
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Dr T and the Women
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In reply to Kool • 10:16a, 9/8/23
AG
Kool,

just curious.. are you a Kappa? the Kool is a Kappa thing.. I am a kappa and a doc
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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one safe place
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In reply to cevans_40 • 11:48a, 9/8/23
cevans_40 said:
Good Lord, I hope OP can retire. If he can't, I never will.
Your comment reminded me of a discussion I had with one of my tax clients. He was wanting to retire, as I recall somewhere around 59 or 60 years of age. He was an engineer, an Aggie, and worked for an oil and gas company, one of the majors. While I had people making a million or more a year in wages, they all owned their own businesses. He was the only one I ever saw who was working for a publicly traded company and getting a W-2 for more than a million for like his last five years he worked.

So, he asked the "can I retire" question. He was a country boy, grew up on a farm kind of guy, very conservative with his money. He brings in his paperwork and had something like 7.5 million set aside. My comment was that if you cannot retire, 99.99% of the country will never be able to!
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halfastros81
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5:56p, 9/10/23
AG
I echo those that suggest the Firecalc app is good place to get a feel for what your retirement prospects are.
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halfastros81
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In reply to one safe place • 5:58p, 9/10/23
AG
I find it hard to believe that a guy that made that kind of money in the oil & gas biz had no familiarity with cash flow models. I'm not suggesting you're steering us wrong , just that he probably already knew the answer. If he didn't I dunno how he made it that long in that business.
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Kool
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In reply to Dr T and the Women • 7:47a, 9/11/23
AG
Dr T and the Women said:
Kool,

just curious.. are you a Kappa? the Kool is a Kappa thing.. I am a kappa and a doc
Not a Kappa. Just Kool. Sorry to disappoint.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Tex117
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In reply to Quinn • 4:16p, 9/11/23
AG
Quinn said:
AgOutsideAustin said:
I look at these numbers and they don't seem real. How will people make it? That's my earlier point for those that have saved regularly and have a decent amount saved ( more than all these averages) are they really running out of or outliving their money ? I saw something yesterday that said only 10% of people retire with at least one million and we are " what if" and "yeah but" the OP's 2.4 million saved at 58 ?
It's hard to fathom for people who spend their free time on a Business and Investments message board, but people really don't save at all for retirement (including a ton of white collar and college educated people). It sounds crazy, but its true.
Because saving for retirement is not as much fun as financing "the life" in your 30's and 40s.

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permabull
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In reply to Tex117 • 9:12p, 9/11/23
AG
Most people just think they will save up when they are older and make more money. They obviously dont understand the power of compounding growth...
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insulator_king
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6:23p, 10/4/23
AG
An interesting followup to this post is here.
https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3406472
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