Quantum computing - next tech gold rush or not?

8,504 Views | 49 Replies | Last: 26 days ago by ABATTBQ11
knoxtom
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So now that we all know kinda what QC is, you have to ask the next question... is it ripe for investing.

I would argue that with the exception of Google, it is not. While I fully understand a company does not need to make a profit to be a good investment, I don't see where anyone has shown a path to a profit yet. Or even a pathway towards anything commercial.

Heineken-Ashi
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knoxtom said:

So now that we all know kinda what QC is, you have to ask the next question... is it ripe for investing.

I would argue that with the exception of Google, it is not. While I fully understand a company does not need to make a profit to be a good investment, I don't see where anyone has shown a path to a profit yet. Or even a pathway towards anything commercial.


AI still doesn't have that great a path to profit. It's been winning on multiple expansion mostly. The biggest winners outside of NVDA and a small handful of others have been server providers / installers and liquid coolers. So it's chip and server makers and the companies that support them. The actual utilization of AI isn't generating much of anything. Quantam is much farther away.
Eliminatus
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AG
knoxtom said:

So now that we all know kinda what QC is, you have to ask the next question... is it ripe for investing.

I would argue that with the exception of Google, it is not. While I fully understand a company does not need to make a profit to be a good investment, I don't see where anyone has shown a path to a profit yet. Or even a pathway towards anything commercial.


In comparison to everything else available? I don't think so either. QC is in the realm of supercomputers. This is not going to be a household technology in our lifetimes. So state and commercial application only at this point. State is out, so investing in the commercial companies on the pioneering path themselves is the only viable solution I see for us peasants to gain anything from it. IMO at least.

ETA: Misread your post. As far as commercial applications goes, not sure either. Banking is the one that pops into mind at first, because they are the ones most at risk of QC. Now, I don't if QC can stop QC from decrypting our best stuff to date. Kinda doubt it tbh, but I am sure Big Bank is going to try regardless.

Benefits to research is a given. So the trickle down effect from that is...pretty much whatever you can imagine. Pharmaceuticals was my first thought. Physics, Materials Science, etc. Granted all of this will take time, probably a long time.
VitruvianAg
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AG
ABATTBQ11 said:

VitruvianAg said:

I saw a short video on IONQs quantum entanglement of qubits.

quantum entanglement processing allows for instantaneous communication between computers regardless of distance.




That's... not exactly how it works.

To pass information from sender to receiver, you need to be listening for information on one end because you don't know if or when the other end is talking. This is why walkie talkies are always listening and require you to press a button to transmit. So, you need to be "listening" to entangled particles to see if the other end is passing information, but you can't "listen" without also affecting your end of the entangled particles and the measurement you get while listening is random. The result is that you can't actually tell if someone is trying to send you something because the act of listening would step on their transmission by interfering with your end of the entangled pair. Think of it like a walkie talkie where the volume and transmit button are the same, so as soon as you turn the volume above 0 to listen, you're squashing anything incoming.

Now, information can be passed through quantum teleportation, but that also requires the passing of classical information. The sender needs to perform operations on the qubits they're wanting to send and their side of an entangled pair of qubits to determine information about their state that is passed to the receiver who uses that information to determine the original state of the teleported qubits they now have. Think of it like being able to instantly transmit a file, but the file is encrypted and you can only get the encryption key in an email.
Okay, I didn't intend to say "communication between"... With QE there is no need for sending back and forth with my Black Hole example. Never mind the enormous complexity and that we're light years from a black hole.

What entangled particle(s) in one machine do(es) the other does simultaneously. There is no information exchange.

It's magic... I don't care to get into the whole Heisenberg uncertainty principle, I understand it's validity.

And your description above (similarly described by others on teleportation) isn't the type of teleportation we all care about...

Dang, just keeps going up, 20 points since I bought my measly 10 shares.
ABATTBQ11
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AG
knoxtom said:

So now that we all know kinda what QC is, you have to ask the next question... is it ripe for investing.

I would argue that with the exception of Google, it is not. While I fully understand a company does not need to make a profit to be a good investment, I don't see where anyone has shown a path to a profit yet. Or even a pathway towards anything commercial.




Kind of depends on your time horizon and whether you think it's at the level of Hollerith machines or UNIVAC.
warrington
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what are the stock symbols that you all are looking into
jamey
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AG
Anyone know of a good quantum computer ETF
aggies4life
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AG
Comeby!
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AG
Now WSJ covering it.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-01-08-2025/card/quantum-stocks-plunge-after-nvidia-ceo-says-very-useful-computers-are-decades-away-YxEqn0LoSFn1WyLotcMm


ABATTBQ11
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AG
TBF, the history of the tech industry is full of commentary that looked foolish 5-10 years later.

He may be right though.
jja79
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I got into IONQ a month or so at $33. It ran up to about $50 and down $19 today so I added some. Might be a fool but not in enough to be worried.
bradtheag
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AG
Made my initial foray into Quantum today. Bought some QTUM
dds08
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AG
Google's willow chip presentation makes it seem like Quantum is neural networks on the hardware level, and that each qubiit is it's own neural network on an atomic level!

It'll blow AI away because AI is software level, compared to atomic level.

CuriousAg
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$QBTS -

Listed customers in job postings and 8-k presentation…how can you doubt this?

"D-Wave's technology has been used by some of the world's most advanced organizations including Mastercard, Deloitte, Davidson Technologies, ArcelorMittal, Siemens Healthineers, Unisys, NEC Corporation, Pattison Food Group Ltd., DENSO, Lockheed Martin, Forschungszentrum Jlich, University of Southern California, and Los Alamos National Laboratory."

CEO interview (outlook) - yesterday


Recent investor presentation:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1907982/000190798225000014/needhamconferencenyc_fin.htm

Board member who served under Trumps first term…
Sec. Kirstjen Nielsen - Former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security

Im loaded.
ABATTBQ11
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dds08 said:

Google's willow chip presentation makes it seem like Quantum is neural networks on the hardware level, and that each qubiit is it's own neural network on an atomic level!

It'll blow AI away because AI is software level, compared to atomic level.




That's... Not exactly a correct interpretation, but also kind of.

In very simple terms, qubits hold information probabilistically, but they're not like a neural network that is trained probabilistically.

Neural networks are made of layers of interconnected neurons, and each neuron is essentially a function that takes the results of each neuron in the input later or previous layers as a variable and allies its own weights to them. At the end, you have a single output layer that produces a desired result. Let's say you have a stock price prediction network with two input variables, yesterday's closing price x and the day before's closing price y, and two layers of two neurons. Each neuron in the first layer would take the input variables and apply their trained weights, so you'd have something like N1=1.2x + 2.1y and N2=1.3x + 1.8y, giving you N1 and N2. The next layer takes N1 and N2 and does the exact same thing, so you'd have something like N3=1.8(N1) + 0.7(N2) and N4=1.2(N1) - 1.5(N2). Then output layer gives something like OUTPUT=N3 - N4. You just run x and y through and get your prediction. But where do those variable weights come from, you ask? They're trained by using complex math and lots of data. ML and AI algorithms run data through with a random set of weights and make changes to them based on the deltas between predictions and known results (they also use much more complex, nonlinear functions). Eventually, the weights all arrive at a combination where more changes don't produce better or much better results. However, this is a probabilistic solution because that combination is not guaranteed to be the best combination possible. It's just a local minimum that is good enough. If you start with a different set of random weights, you may end up with different trained weights that produce similar predictions.

Qubits can't necessarily hold all of those weights and the connections between them. You can't really train them like that, AFAIK (maybe view them like that in an algorithm?). They CAN act like the neurons in the network though, because they're effectively a nonlinear probability function, and when you think about the network as a whole, it kind of is just one big ass function.


As to blowing away AI, yes and no. Quantum parallelization may be able to process more data faster and arrive at more optimal weightings. AI will probably still be the same AI, though. I think the big takeaway is that it has the potential to make AI better, but not necessarily replace it.


Willow's big break through is also more about reducing errors in qubits. You need stable qubits to do any kind of quantum computing, but because of their nature they're highly susceptible to being influenced by the rest of the universe. Think of a hard drive that stores information as bits by polarizing tiny little pieces of metal into 1's and 0's. Now, what happens when you run a magnet across it? It's all ****ed up and unusable. Same thing for qubits. You're trying to use them in an algorithm, but some random particle or background radiation causes one to change. All of a sudden you have an error. The more qubits you have, the more errors your likely to have because the complexity of the system has increased and you have more chances for errors. Willow is the first way to correct errors in qubits faster than they appear or propagate, and apparently the more qubits you have the better it performs.


At least that's all my understanding.
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