What a bad take but at least your wish came true

Edit wrong emoji

He still has a few weeks to be right

I'm feeling like the OP now...guess I'm a year behind him.

aggieland09 said:

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I'm feeling like the OP now...guess I'm a year behind him.

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OP was basically claiming the market was a bubble due to pop and the latest bull cycle was done with bears coming to feast.

IF the OP had come in a week into a Middle East war/conflict that was shutting down shipping in the most prolific energy transporting choke point in the world no one would have second guessed the move to cash or other "safety" investments.

I'd argue you might have some of the same symptoms but the underlying cause is vastly different.

I am buying.

Buy when everyone is selling. That is what smart long term investors do. It seems like disaster but this is accumulation time. When the war eases, stocks will rocket again.

Profit.

What I do is sell calls, collect premium, make sure they don't assign, and then use that money to buy.

infinity ag said:

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I am buying.

Buy when everyone is selling. That is what smart long term investors do. It seems like disaster but this is accumulation time. When the war eases, stocks will rocket again.

Profit.

What I do is sell calls, collect premium, make sure they don't assign, and then use that money to buy.

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How can you make sure they don't assign when the market rockets on short notice?

I have been the star of this movie before and I didn't like the ending, so what did I do wrong?

infinity ag said:

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I am buying.

Buy when everyone is selling. That is what smart long term investors do.

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Buying during depressed valuation is what smart long term investors do.

"Buy when everyone is selling" is a buzzphrase. You have no real idea when the selling will stop.

What people attribute to "buying when everyone is selling" more times than not is just buying on a regular basis -- the market melting up over time tends to make most think this strategy or that strategy is uniquely profitable when truth is everyone is making a buck.

Quote:

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How can you make sure they don't assign when the market rockets on short notice?

I have been the star of this movie before and I didn't like the ending, so what did I do wrong?

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I still have one PLTR cc sold early last year in the low 100s that kept getting blasted(has been down -$2K value at times) and furiously rolled out close to a dozen times and is now a Nov $260(lol) and still net over +$400ish in premiums

otherwise have sold prob close to a hundred of em just on PLTR that expired or bought back for a fraction of premium

I don't have a system just gut instinct on mostly weekly to bi-weeklyish calls trying to time the peaks of their runs

Proposition Joe said:

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infinity ag said:

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I am buying.

Buy when everyone is selling. That is what smart long term investors do.

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Buying during depressed valuation is what smart long term investors do.

"Buy when everyone is selling" is a buzzphrase. You have no real idea when the selling will stop.

What people attribute to "buying when everyone is selling" more times than not is just buying on a regular basis -- the market melting up over time tends to make most think this strategy or that strategy is uniquely profitable when truth is everyone is making a buck.

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It is a catchy phrase no doubt. But it has some truth to it.
When the market sank during COVID in 2020, I waited for the market to stabilize a bit (in my judgement) and at some point I bought a large amount. It went down further and my heart sank a bit but then a month later it was ip and has been up ever since.

No one has any idea is true when it comes to specifics. But directionally you know what will happen given time. If you can set aside some money that you don't need today/tomorrow, then you can play this game. I've been buying every week the the past 6 weeks. Those buys are around where they are give or take. I expect to be in the green on all of them in 6 months.

Every time the market has a meltdown and I've been too chicken to buy at some point during the swoon, I regret it later. But hindsight is always 20-20.

Ultimately one has to make money. That is all that matters. I make sure that I make money.

flashplayer said:

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infinity ag said:

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I am buying.

Buy when everyone is selling. That is what smart long term investors do. It seems like disaster but this is accumulation time. When the war eases, stocks will rocket again.

Profit.

What I do is sell calls, collect premium, make sure they don't assign, and then use that money to buy.

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How can you make sure they don't assign when the market rockets on short notice?

I have been the star of this movie before and I didn't like the ending, so what did I do wrong?

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No one can "make sure". It is a judgement call. I have an elaborate spreadsheet that I made in Google Docs with probabilities of things happening. I am a programmer as well so I wrote scripts to do parts of it. Then I take a leap of faith.

No guarantees.

In one situation I miscalculated about 6 weeks ago and sold a put so I have stock and the market is about 10% down since then. But then I just sell calls until it gets to par and I hope to get rid of it. It was after this experience that I expanded my spreadsheet with probabilities.

It is similar to SpreadsheetAg's Aggie game spreadsheets.

I don't do options on my large taxable accounts. I did it last year and got a near heart attack and had to sell a lot to cover. Dumb but lesson learned. I have a small taxable acc that generates income for me that I can afford to lose.

I've had to change my covered call game a bit lately.
1. Only write about 60% of said stock, leaving 40% sitting there in case a big move to the upside
2. Write them weekly with at least a 5% cushion.

YouBet said:

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Tumble Weed said:

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I posted last week (2/21) on the stock trading thread that I though the top for the year was in for the S&P 500.

I bought GLD, which has also dropped in value since I bought it. I expect gold to perform better than the S&P 500 this year.

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Bold but maybe this will be the year. History is against you but then past performance does not dictate the future.

Since Jan 2010, the S&P 500 has a total return of 603% while gold has a return of 114%.

Since 1926, on a 1-year time horizon, the S&P has a ~75% chance of beating inflation while gold has a ~45% chance.

And I'm not knocking you...I don't own any gold other than jewelry when I should at least have some allocation towards it.

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Generally, when comparing Gold to the S&P, the S&P has been a clear winner. Gold downside is that if the market doesn't push it higher no gain is achieved, whereas the S&P can grow from dividends and with growth by companies with products or/services. Long term investment horizons favor S&P.

When comparing we must remember that a good part of America's productivity years we were on the gold standard. So gold as an inflation hedge and flight to safety did not exist. From 1940 through the early 2000, America was the clear free-world leader and life in America incorporated the American Dream with prosperity. During this time period, America's U S Bonds were the flight to safety vehicle and the dollar was the unquestionably reserve currency of the world.

Now, instead of going back to before we were born, go back 25 years to 2000. Probably most people on this board haven't been actively investing that long. If you cherry pick time frames you can get whatever results you are looking for, however Gold has performed better the last 25 years than the S&P. Going back since 2010, the S&P has performed better. One might question why the difference? Well, since 2000 the S&P has experience 2 significant downturns during which Gold usually does well in and the results indicate that as well. Since 2010 the S&P has NOT experienced a significant downturn and thus has outperformed Gold.

So if I was going to make a case for Gold for the PRESENT, here would be my reasoning.

1. Gold is the undeniable flight to safety at this time, because the safety of the dollar is being questioned more than ever before. Central Banks around the world are quietly buying gold to provide more strength to their country's currency. The BRICK countries (ownership of 70% of the world's population) are finding ways not to buy oil with U S currency, which undermines the need for countries to buy U S Bonds.

2. Gold does better compared to other investments when economies are stressed. The Global-Political environment we are experiencing is anything but STRESSFUL.

3. Our debt level in the U S is ALARMING! Our second highest budgeted item is paying interest on our debt. This war is contributing to an already 2Trillion dollar shortfall in projected spending this year. That is INFLATION. Gold is the HEDGE AGAINST inflation.

4. Investors lore " don't try to catch a falling knife". The other one "Don't get in front of a raging bull market". Gold is in a Bull market. Last year it kicked the ShEET out of the S&P. Should we ask why? Once you come up with your WHY, then ask, has that WHY changed for this year and years beyond.

Yes, choose whatever time period you want to justify your investment position. History is valuable, but it must be put in context to be valid in using it to try and determine the future. And when in the present, evaluate the present and continue to ask Why? Cheers.

infinity ag said:

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flashplayer said:

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infinity ag said:

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I am buying.

Buy when everyone is selling. That is what smart long term investors do. It seems like disaster but this is accumulation time. When the war eases, stocks will rocket again.

Profit.

What I do is sell calls, collect premium, make sure they don't assign, and then use that money to buy.

---

How can you make sure they don't assign when the market rockets on short notice?

I have been the star of this movie before and I didn't like the ending, so what did I do wrong?

---

No one can "make sure". It is a judgement call. I have an elaborate spreadsheet that I made in Google Docs with probabilities of things happening. I am a programmer as well so I wrote scripts to do parts of it. Then I take a leap of faith.

No guarantees.

In one situation I miscalculated about 6 weeks ago and sold a put so I have stock and the market is about 10% down since then. But then I just sell calls until it gets to par and I hope to get rid of it. It was after this experience that I expanded my spreadsheet with probabilities.

It is similar to SpreadsheetAg's Aggie game spreadsheets.

I don't do options on my large taxable accounts. I did it last year and got a near heart attack and had to sell a lot to cover. Dumb but lesson learned. I have a small taxable acc that generates income for me that I can afford to lose.

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Yeah but at least you outperform the S&P almost every year and you make more investing each year than you and your wife's combined salaries. You're doing betting than 99.99% of investors.