On 5/29 he said he bought back in to VOO. So sold everything 2/27, bought back 5/29. Sold at 5463, bought back around 5417, so did buy back in slightly below where he sold.
I sold every stock I own but one and went to cash
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358 Replies |
Last: 7 days ago by wessimo
He was wise to sell when he did. The market was at an extreme risk point. As long as he bought back below where he sold, he's likely better off than most.techno-ag said:
14 people starred the OP too so apparently some agreed with his assessment.
Those who reduced risk when he did and bought the bottom are likely WAY better than those who just held, or held and bought the bottom.
That strategy is not for everyone, and most literally have no way of identifying periods of significant risk or significant opportunity. So buy and hold forever works for most. But there will be a time when it wont. Wish I knew when that would be. Currently, the market is at an extreme resistance point. But it can reset with any combination of price retracement, time, or a combo of both. Meaning the market could crash to 5500 Monday and then resume back up and be set up for 6500+. It could also go flat for a month maybe with a very minor retracement and have the same setup. It could also crash hard to a new low. I'm not saying it's likely, but go look at SPX in 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2020 to see times when it made new highs only to fall to new lows. My base case is that we get a sizeable retracement and then target high 6000's into the fall and maybe winter. But no matter what, I still think this market ultimately finds its way back to 3500 over the coming years. It would take a lot to change my view on that. For that reason, I am still very risk averse and will likely remain that way the rest of the year unless we get a clean corrective retracement below 5700. At that point, I would likely invest into that bottom looking for 700-1000pts over the following 3-6 months.
Everyone has different strategies and risk tolerance. My views are not shared by many. And that's ok. I do well with mine. But I would advise against lambasting anyone who has the stones to make a big call and post transparently about it. If nothing else, take it was a view into a market sentiment you don't share. It's always nice to know where different participants are.
bam02 said:techno-ag said:
14 people starred the OP too so apparently some agreed with his assessment.
Yeah, there were no shortage of people who claim the sky was gonna fall because of the tariffs. I know this. They can all be contributors to the newsletter.
They still do. Listen to CNBC sometime. They hype negative on tariffs and/or Trump every five minutes or so.
"Yeah we're in record territory but it's all gonna crash second half because tariffs!"
Eventually there will be corrections like HA says, no doubt. But the constant fear mongering and unwillingness to accept that the economy is not doing too bad right now is more political in nature than reasonable analysis, imo.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
I don't know about the rest of you but I'm 100% equity and am ahead of my Jan 1 start. I would be a lot further ahead had my largest position not been AAPL but so far no complaints. If the Fed ever decides to cut I think the year will be decent. Trump still has a chance to screw things up but for now, no big complaints.
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
What gives you that impression?LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
You didn't learn anything after reading this thread?
Probably 90% of that can identify these periods are in Congress.Quote:
That strategy is not for everyone, and most literally have no way of identifying periods of significant risk or significant opportunity.
ToucheApache said:Probably 90% of that can identify these periods are in Congress.Quote:
That strategy is not for everyone, and most literally have no way of identifying periods of significant risk or significant opportunity.
OP could go all in on BRK.B and say he still came out ahead
South Platte said:What gives you that impression?LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
He might make bank if Powell cuts 100bps to save his job later this month
Quote:
[color=#000000]I don't know about the rest of you but I'm 100% equity and am ahead of my Jan 1 start. I would be a lot further ahead had my largest position not been AAPL but so far no complaints[/color]
Right there with you. I too am 100% invested in equities. AAPL has seen better days, imo. I've been trimming my position but I still own a chunk.
Grateful that I'm ahead of the S&P YTD though, thanks to COOP, NVDA, and AVGO.
permabull said:South Platte said:LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
What gives you that impression?
He might make bank if Powell cuts 100bps to save his job later this month
Stocks should shoot up if there is a 100bp cut - how would that help someone in bonds/CDs?
permabull said:South Platte said:What gives you that impression?LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
He might make bank if Powell cuts 100bps to save his job later this month
I suspect it's personal with Powell. He'd rather sink the country's economy than help Trump. The reductions right before the election to try and help the Democrats, combined with his refusal to budge after Trump won smacks of partisanship.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
b0ridi said:permabull said:South Platte said:LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
What gives you that impression?
He might make bank if Powell cuts 100bps to save his job later this month
Stocks should shoot up if there is a 100bp cut - how would that help someone in bonds/CDs?
If you lock bonds in at higher interest rates before the drop, once rates drop you can sell the bonds at a premium
LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
Didnt we already see a correction a few months ago?? The market was down 19% in April. The market was down 10% last year. The market was down over 20% in 2022-2023. The market dropped 34% in 2020 during Covid. But it has recovered and then some every single time.
The point is theres always another "correction" coming. Unless you are about to retire or are retired already, who cares, just keep buying and ignore the noise.
Buy the dip.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
If OP, bought back into the market in April then he made a very good trade. If he is still on the sidelines, then he might have made a mistake (considering he probably now has a cap gain taxes to pay)
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
Another all time high today.
Petrino1 said:
Another all time high today.
Bulls on Parade...
I Roth converted $30k of VOO from my rollover IRA after liberation day... Now I wish I did twice that!
Heine back it again with the market crash predictions. This time…."in the coming years".
I ragged on the OP earlier in this thread, but I'm here with my "top is in" prediction. The AI exuberance has gotten completely ridiculous and I think we see a 25%+ correction within the next 6-12 months.
Unlike the OP, I'm not selling everything and going to cash/bonds, but will be reducing exposure to tech funds and setting aside cash to buy back in at lower valuations.
I've been wrong before (and will be again) so feel free to quote this post in a few months when the market is 20% higher
Unlike the OP, I'm not selling everything and going to cash/bonds, but will be reducing exposure to tech funds and setting aside cash to buy back in at lower valuations.
I've been wrong before (and will be again) so feel free to quote this post in a few months when the market is 20% higher
wessimo said:
I ragged on the OP earlier in this thread, but I'm here with my "top is in" prediction. The AI exuberance has gotten completely ridiculous and I think we see a 25%+ correction within the next 6-12 months.
Unlike the OP, I'm not selling everything and going to cash/bonds, but will be reducing exposure to tech funds and setting aside cash to buy back in at lower valuations.
I've been wrong before (and will be again) so feel free to quote this post in a few months when the market is 20% higher
You aren't alone. Quite a few talking heads agree with you.
knoxtom said:
On my regular trading account I just sold every stock and went to cash. I may switch the entire 401k to bond funds as well.
Simple as this... I do not see how the stock market will be higher in 6 months or a year than it is now. Hope I am wrong, but I doubt it will happen
One of the greatest runs in Wall Street history for the stocks making up QQQ over the last six months along with quantums, energy powering data centers and AI.
this OP is in history along with the guy 3 years ago who stated "inflation is under control"
I haven't read this thread in a while. I am the OP.
I posted in here a while back that I bought back into VOO. Wish I had gone for less traditional pick, but as I said, I am generally risk averse. VOO has been fine but everything else has blown it away.
I bought a lot more Bitcoin and I started a thread about buying a bunch of Soundhound and NVidia. Right now I am not sitting on much cash at all as I put a lot into Sound which is up a cool 63.12%.
My YTD is 43.2%. Lastb year was slightly higher. VOO has been the least profitable since I bought back in, up around 13%. NVIDIA is up 21%.
Overall, selling everything and buying back wasn't much either direction. I ended up with a lot more bitcoin. I have made a ton on Soundhound as I bought a lot at $4, sold at $18, got back in at around $11, and it is now $18 again. I am not going to repeat my Robinhood mistake again and am holding Soundhound for a few more years. I also won't sell the BTC and actually would like more.
AS for my only regret the past year, it was selling the Robinhood. I had a lot of it at $8 to $12 a share. When it rose I sold it all and almost tripled my money. I thought it had risen too fast and I could buy back in cheaper. It is now $125 or so. I f'ed that up... but on the other hand I used that money for BTC, Sound, and VOO. I still did fine, I just didn't hit the grand slam.
I posted in here a while back that I bought back into VOO. Wish I had gone for less traditional pick, but as I said, I am generally risk averse. VOO has been fine but everything else has blown it away.
I bought a lot more Bitcoin and I started a thread about buying a bunch of Soundhound and NVidia. Right now I am not sitting on much cash at all as I put a lot into Sound which is up a cool 63.12%.
My YTD is 43.2%. Lastb year was slightly higher. VOO has been the least profitable since I bought back in, up around 13%. NVIDIA is up 21%.
Overall, selling everything and buying back wasn't much either direction. I ended up with a lot more bitcoin. I have made a ton on Soundhound as I bought a lot at $4, sold at $18, got back in at around $11, and it is now $18 again. I am not going to repeat my Robinhood mistake again and am holding Soundhound for a few more years. I also won't sell the BTC and actually would like more.
AS for my only regret the past year, it was selling the Robinhood. I had a lot of it at $8 to $12 a share. When it rose I sold it all and almost tripled my money. I thought it had risen too fast and I could buy back in cheaper. It is now $125 or so. I f'ed that up... but on the other hand I used that money for BTC, Sound, and VOO. I still did fine, I just didn't hit the grand slam.
wessimo said:
I ragged on the OP earlier in this thread, but I'm here with my "top is in" prediction. The AI exuberance has gotten completely ridiculous and I think we see a 25%+ correction within the next 6-12 months.
Unlike the OP, I'm not selling everything and going to cash/bonds, but will be reducing exposure to tech funds and setting aside cash to buy back in at lower valuations.
I've been wrong before (and will be again) so feel free to quote this post in a few months when the market is 20% higher
Historically, U.S. bear markets (20%+ dips) occur about once every 6 years on average. Since 2020, we have had three separate 20% drops (2020, 2022, and April-2025). I dont disagree that the markets seem overvalued and the tech/AI boom has been crazy, but I think it would be far fetched to experience another 20%+ drop so soon after having one 5-6 months ago, and having 3 in the past 5 years, given the history of the markets.
But lets see what happens, only time will tell!
YouBet said:wessimo said:
I ragged on the OP earlier in this thread, but I'm here with my "top is in" prediction. The AI exuberance has gotten completely ridiculous and I think we see a 25%+ correction within the next 6-12 months.
Unlike the OP, I'm not selling everything and going to cash/bonds, but will be reducing exposure to tech funds and setting aside cash to buy back in at lower valuations.
I've been wrong before (and will be again) so feel free to quote this post in a few months when the market is 20% higher
You aren't alone. Quite a few talking heads agree with you.
There is NEVER a time where quite a few talking heads are predicting a crash.
I've been overly conservative/bearish/nervous in my investing life...probably cost me retiring at 45.
well at least you had total conviction in your OP and stuck with it.
knoxtom said:
I haven't read this thread in a while. I am the OP.
I posted in here a while back that I bought back into VOO. Wish I had gone for less traditional pick, but as I said, I am generally risk averse. VOO has been fine but everything else has blown it away.
I bought a lot more Bitcoin and I started a thread about buying a bunch of Soundhound and NVidia. Right now I am not sitting on much cash at all as I put a lot into Sound which is up a cool 63.12%.
My YTD is 43.2%. Lastb year was slightly higher. VOO has been the least profitable since I bought back in, up around 13%. NVIDIA is up 21%.
Overall, selling everything and buying back wasn't much either direction. I ended up with a lot more bitcoin. I have made a ton on Soundhound as I bought a lot at $4, sold at $18, got back in at around $11, and it is now $18 again. I am not going to repeat my Robinhood mistake again and am holding Soundhound for a few more years. I also won't sell the BTC and actually would like more.
AS for my only regret the past year, it was selling the Robinhood. I had a lot of it at $8 to $12 a share. When it rose I sold it all and almost tripled my money. I thought it had risen too fast and I could buy back in cheaper. It is now $125 or so. I f'ed that up... but on the other hand I used that money for BTC, Sound, and VOO. I still did fine, I just didn't hit the grand slam.
Holding VOO from beginning of year to now has been a good return, but nothing crazy. If you sold near the top and bought back on the way up, you are still outperforming passive investors. So kudos on that. Active management will always beat passive when you don't let ego get in the way. But it does require balls of steel and the ability to shake off wrong assumptions and adapt when things change.
knoxtom said:
I haven't read this thread in a while. I am the OP.
I posted in here a while back that I bought back into VOO. Wish I had gone for less traditional pick, but as I said, I am generally risk averse. VOO has been fine but everything else has blown it away.
I bought a lot more Bitcoin and I started a thread about buying a bunch of Soundhound and NVidia. Right now I am not sitting on much cash at all as I put a lot into Sound which is up a cool 63.12%.
My YTD is 43.2%. Lastb year was slightly higher. VOO has been the least profitable since I bought back in, up around 13%. NVIDIA is up 21%.
Overall, selling everything and buying back wasn't much either direction. I ended up with a lot more bitcoin. I have made a ton on Soundhound as I bought a lot at $4, sold at $18, got back in at around $11, and it is now $18 again. I am not going to repeat my Robinhood mistake again and am holding Soundhound for a few more years. I also won't sell the BTC and actually would like more.
AS for my only regret the past year, it was selling the Robinhood. I had a lot of it at $8 to $12 a share. When it rose I sold it all and almost tripled my money. I thought it had risen too fast and I could buy back in cheaper. It is now $125 or so. I f'ed that up... but on the other hand I used that money for BTC, Sound, and VOO. I still did fine, I just didn't hit the grand slam.
Knoxtom, you posted on this thread in April that you were 56 years old, and wanted to derisk some of your investments, which makes sense. But then you proceeded to buy a lot of Bitcoin and Soundhound, which is basically the opposite of derisking your investments lol. Im glad you made some money and everything worked out ok, but that couldve gone sideways for you as well.
I hope what newer investors can learn from this thread is to just stay the course, ignore the noise, and keep buying through the ups and the downs.
No idea what Soundhound is but I'm not sure we can count BTC as overly risky anymore. It's pretty normalized at this point and most diversified investors have it in their portfolio to some degree.
10 year chart on BTC looks quite alright to me.
10 year chart on BTC looks quite alright to me.
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