When do tarrifs show up in economic data?

jamey

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10:28a, 5/16/25

AG

From everything I've read we won't really see any tariff impact on prices or inflation data until the data comes out in July, which would be June data but even that would be a partial month at best

Understood that tariffs aren't technically inflation because it's a 1 time deal but it would still show up in CPI and PPI data

Also, companies will absorb what they can to stay competitive which would show up in their margins. I'm thinking we would not see that until 3rd or 4th quarter data

Thoughts?

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Sims

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10:51a, 5/16/25

AG

You probably won't see it from the BLS/Fed et al until September fully.

You'd have to look at other metrics like Truflation which I think will pick it up much sooner.

jamey

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In reply to Sims • 12:28p, 5/16/25

AG

Is this what you're talking about

https://truflation.com/marketplace/us-inflation-rate

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Sims

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1:02p, 5/16/25

AG

Yep, exactly.

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2:49p, 5/16/25

AG

Walmart said they will start raising prices in the next few weeks. I'd guess the other big boxes and Amazon will be the same. So July would catch the price increase s for June.

Bur may not really see them until September. Of course since tariffs are changing weekly who knows.

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5:05p, 5/16/25

AG

This won't help

This is set to increase interest rates even further.

We maintain our view that solving deficit spending would end MOST of our economic issues.

Let us know if you’d like a thread explaining the downgrade.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 16, 2025

permabull

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6:28p, 5/16/25

AG

If us debt is aa1 what county has AAA debt? China? Russia?

I guess the world will start using Canada or Australia dollars since they still have AAA rating but no nukes to back them up.

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pocketrockets06

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10:38a, 5/17/25

AG

I'll say you are definitely going to see impact in q2 earnings. I work for a manufacturing company that is a Top 5 exporter in the US depending on the year. Our margins were dropping in April and collapsed going into May.

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pocketrockets06

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10:53a, 5/17/25

AG

I'll say you are definitely going to see impact in q2 earnings. I work for a manufacturing company that is a Top 5 exporter in the US depending on the year. Our margins were dropping in April and collapsed going into May.

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In reply to pocketrockets06 • 11:41a, 5/17/25

AG

pocketrockets06 said:
I'll say you are definitely going to see impact in q2 earnings. I work for a manufacturing company that is a Top 5 exporter in the US depending on the year. Our margins were dropping in April and collapsed going into May.

Is your company trying to absorb all of the tariff costs?

The impact on earnings isn't getting much air time i feel. Everyone is talking about how much it will impact consumers but there's going to be an impact on earnings which could impact 401Ks too

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11:52a, 5/17/25

AG

We're not trying to absorb the costs. We're trying to raise prices but there's a limit to how much you can do that without destroying the demand. So margins are being compressed and volume is being pressured.

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Kenneth_2003

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4:35p, 5/17/25

AG

What country(ies) have we actually seen any new tariffs go into effect?

Haven't most/all been rolled back or suspended once negotiations started? The massive Chinese tariffs went into effect briefly but even they blinked last week and have agreed to massive rollbacks on the retaliatory front while negotiations progress.

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4:37p, 5/17/25

AG

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/17/trump-tariffs-update-active-on-hold

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In reply to jamey • 8:45a, 5/18/25

AG

jamey said:
This won't help

This is set to increase interest rates even further.

We maintain our view that solving deficit spending would end MOST of our economic issues.

Let us know if you’d like a thread explaining the downgrade.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 16, 2025

Our real issue and Washington doesn't care and is going to do nothing about it. Tariffs pretty irrelevant if we were to actually address this, but we aren't planning to.

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Pinochet

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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 9:41a, 5/18/25

Kenneth_2003 said:
What country(ies) have we actually seen any new tariffs go into effect?

Haven't most/all been rolled back or suspended once negotiations started? The massive Chinese tariffs went into effect briefly but even they blinked last week and have agreed to massive rollbacks on the retaliatory front while negotiations progress.

The lead times for shipping and the uncertainty is what has caused companies to start pricing things in or adjusting their imports already. I think that's the wildcard/anticipatory nature. And as I understood it, the lower rate tariffs have already been implemented, just not the insane ones that were published.

jamey

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In reply to YouBet • 9:53a, 5/18/25

AG

YouBet said:
jamey said:
This won't help

This is set to increase interest rates even further.

We maintain our view that solving deficit spending would end MOST of our economic issues.

Let us know if you’d like a thread explaining the downgrade.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 16, 2025

Our real issue and Washington doesn't care and is going to do nothing about it. Tariffs pretty irrelevant if we were to actually address this, but we aren't planning to.

That's because thr voters are unserious people on the whole who think politics is like college football, sip vs A&M for example

Our government csn.be no more serious than that when it comes to basic balancing a budget so we perform that function like we're in Jr high with your momma jokes. F16 is a perfect example. We aren't serious people when it comes to our government.

5

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YouBet

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In reply to jamey • 10:07a, 5/18/25

AG

jamey said:
YouBet said:
jamey said:
This won't help

This is set to increase interest rates even further.

We maintain our view that solving deficit spending would end MOST of our economic issues.

Let us know if you’d like a thread explaining the downgrade.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 16, 2025

Our real issue and Washington doesn't care and is going to do nothing about it. Tariffs pretty irrelevant if we were to actually address this, but we aren't planning to.

That's because thr voters are unserious people on the whole who think politics is like college football, sip vs A&M for example

Our government csn.be no more serious than that when it comes to basic balancing a budget so we perform that function like we're in Jr high with your momma jokes. F16 is a perfect example. We aren't serious people when it comes to our government.

Partially. But I would argue it has more to do with government hubris and corruptness coupled with a completely ignorant and mis-educated populace on the reality of how economics work and what we are up against.

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jamey

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In reply to YouBet • 10:56a, 5/18/25

AG

YouBet said:
jamey said:
YouBet said:
jamey said:
This won't help

This is set to increase interest rates even further.

We maintain our view that solving deficit spending would end MOST of our economic issues.

Let us know if you’d like a thread explaining the downgrade.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 16, 2025

Our real issue and Washington doesn't care and is going to do nothing about it. Tariffs pretty irrelevant if we were to actually address this, but we aren't planning to.

That's because thr voters are unserious people on the whole who think politics is like college football, sip vs A&M for example

Our government csn.be no more serious than that when it comes to basic balancing a budget so we perform that function like we're in Jr high with your momma jokes. F16 is a perfect example. We aren't serious people when it comes to our government.
Partially. But I would argue it has more to do with government hubris and corruptness coupled with a completely ignorant and mis-educated populace on the reality of how economics work and what we are up against.

If voters were serious people different people would be in government

We would also have a 4th estate instead of the likes of CNN and FoxNews if voters on the whole were serious people when it comes to politics

So instead of a 4th estate we have infotainment standing in as a pillar of democracy. Investigative journalism would not be science fiction either, it would actually exist imstead

2

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YouBet

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In reply to jamey • 11:58a, 5/18/25

AG

jamey said:
YouBet said:
jamey said:
YouBet said:
jamey said:
This won't help

This is set to increase interest rates even further.

We maintain our view that solving deficit spending would end MOST of our economic issues.

Let us know if you’d like a thread explaining the downgrade.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 16, 2025

Our real issue and Washington doesn't care and is going to do nothing about it. Tariffs pretty irrelevant if we were to actually address this, but we aren't planning to.

That's because thr voters are unserious people on the whole who think politics is like college football, sip vs A&M for example

Our government csn.be no more serious than that when it comes to basic balancing a budget so we perform that function like we're in Jr high with your momma jokes. F16 is a perfect example. We aren't serious people when it comes to our government.
Partially. But I would argue it has more to do with government hubris and corruptness coupled with a completely ignorant and mis-educated populace on the reality of how economics work and what we are up against.

If voters were serious people different people would be in government

We would also have a 4th estate instead of the likes of CNN and FoxNews if voters on the whole were serious people when it comes to politics

So instead of a 4th estate we have infotainment standing in as a pillar of democracy. Investigative journalism would not be science fiction either, it would actually exist imstead

Yes, but voters aren't serious people largely because of what I posted. They are ignorant and miseducated. And fat and happy.

1

pocketrockets06

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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 12:42p, 5/18/25

AG

The worst tariffs are paused right now but tariffs overall are still significantly higher than they were April 1.

Everyone is making purchasing and investment decisions based on where they think tariffs will be in the future. A 90 day pause on tariffs means you need to pause all your investment for at least 90 days to see what day 91 looks like. And if everyone company is doing that, it has a cascading effect that results in economic contraction.

We've already announced publicly we're pausing multibillion plant investments and we've postponed a lot more stuff privately.

Beyond just the extra costs tariffs induce, uncertainty in what tariff rates will be is the real killer. Part of the reason American growth has crushed the world for the better part of a century has been our large free trade zone (50 states and 300MM people) AND a stable currency and government. Trump is badly undermining the latter two items

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jamey

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12:47p, 5/18/25

AG

Serious voters can change everything in mass whenever they want. Most just want to be entertained instead

Everyone will change when the financial crap hits the fan. Nobody will talk about the weekly stories that titillate the masses any more from that day forward. What passes for political discourse will become serious as if our way of life depends on it. I just hope everyone realizes their error, and pass down the lesson for when good times create weak men again, hopefully, in the distant future

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Jeeper79

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In reply to jamey • 7:43a, 5/19/25

AG

jamey said:
YouBet said:
jamey said:
This won't help

This is set to increase interest rates even further.

We maintain our view that solving deficit spending would end MOST of our economic issues.

Let us know if you’d like a thread explaining the downgrade.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 16, 2025

Our real issue and Washington doesn't care and is going to do nothing about it. Tariffs pretty irrelevant if we were to actually address this, but we aren't planning to.

That's because thr voters are unserious people on the whole who think politics is like college football, sip vs A&M for example

Our government csn.be no more serious than that when it comes to basic balancing a budget so we perform that function like we're in Jr high with your momma jokes. F16 is a perfect example. We aren't serious people when it comes to our government.

Most people can't seem to manage their own personal budgets and they have voting rights. We are what we prioritize, and most people either don't know or don't care.

Dems DEFINITELY don't care. They pretend that money goes into a black hole with no consequence. GOP says they care, but the actions never match the words.

As long as buying votes with tax money (aka "other people's money") keeps winning elections, we'll continue to have this problem.

PeekingDuck

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10:09a, 5/20/25

AG

The problem is that America has had its culture significantly diluted over time and there's no going back. You can't manage a group of people who are so disparate. We're rolling on pure inertia at this point. Europe is having a similar, but more acute problem that some of them are trying to solve and many are trying to ignore. Thankfully, there are a lot of people in America and we are surrounded by two countries who do not matter economically. So, I imagine we'll continue to coast for a good while.