Group Analysis Project: BOXABL

1,166 Views | 4 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by I bleed maroon
I bleed maroon
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I have watched these guys struggle along for several years. I feel like they or something like them are a partial solution to our future housing needs, but I have not been convinced they are "the ones" that will do for affordable housing what Elon Musk did for electric vehicles. Their leaders have a strong vision, and seem energetic and likable enough, but with an extra layer of "sleaze factor" than is usually present. The best I can say is that it's truly a ground-floor opportunity.

Their latest round of direct equity raising closes in a few weeks, and I have briefly considered throwing a small bit of mad money toward their moonshot. Their offering circular (and website) are here:

www.boxabl.com

https://invest.boxabl.com/?utm_campaign=email05_29_25&utm_medium=marketinglistfull&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_D7fGWEPE290yt_XYgH3DK3t4HP5uO-WC71vc5lZC9GDtlsbJ4sMcKArDfE87EHh6TP1gL04Zcy9h27ryHIbEIcpG9YA&_hsmi=363921014&utm_source=email&tnames=referral&utm_content=none&utm_term=&utm_page=home

As a general rule, offering circulars are gloomier and more scary than a graveyard on Halloween, but I think this one might take the cake. Given all this, does anyone see anything investable, here? I kind of want to, but ... just ... can't. Convince me?
agnerd
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I don't like the execution of the product. Flat roofs with hinges seem like a guaranteed future leak. And if I'm looking for something that small, I want it to have wheels under it so it can be moved. If I am unwilling to buy/patronize the product, I usually won't invest in it either (apple excluded).

But I'm also a long-term investor. If you're looking for good returns short-term, my advice is not applicable.
I bleed maroon
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Thanks! I happened across these guys when looking at backyard ADUs.

On the roof issue, they recommend having someone produce a regular roof to mimic a main house, or to top it with something decorative. I don't think they expect many to have a flat roof in finished form.

I thought of reaching out to them to create a small AirBnB property (3-4 units) in the Texas Hill Country (glad I didn't). I figured they would partially subsidize them if I would allow investors or future homeowners to do periodic walk-throughs. Since the rental market has softened, I no longer have interest in this project.

If they truly can achieve scale, I can see them getting good bids with FEMA, low income housing, additional structures for a ranch/compound, and maybe some fringe of city limited subdivision type developments where land cost is still attainable (Conroe, Denton, Taylor, Boerne, etc.?).

As far as wheels, I know they don't want to have these looked at as mobile home alternatives (they're "permanently" attached to a regular slab foundation), but I do think relocation is possible, with some significant pain, I'd imagine.

At 80 cents a share, I figured throwing a few thousand at them on the off chance it actually succeeds might be worth the risk. I planned on visiting their factory on a future Vegas trip, but it looks like this subscription closes soon.

Still not convinced, but open to other ideas, if anyone cares to share?
Troglodyte
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Have you tried to buy a home from them? Every time I look for pricing or anything, everything points to investing in their business vs selling you a home. You can go on Amazon and find several companies that sell homes that unfold for $10,000. I don't think they can execute.
I bleed maroon
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Troglodyte said:

Have you tried to buy a home from them? Every time I look for pricing or anything, everything points to investing in their business vs selling you a home. You can go on Amazon and find several companies that sell homes that unfold for $10,000. I don't think they can execute.
Well, they've only produced 600 units (likely all handbuilt, including prototypes?) in their existence, so I tend to agree with you. It always seems to be about the next "bigger factory" with them.

They used to have a more robust quoting system on their website, but it's clear that their focus is on raising as much cash as possible to stay afloat.
Refresh
Page 1 of 1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.