As for what I predicted on Feb 7..Quote:
All in all, the reason I keep posting my SPY chart, is because I don't know exactly which term of the structure is ending. But I know it's at least the shorter term. Not only do I want to protect myself, but I want dry powder should $500 merely be a bottom leading to another year or two of bull. Calling a top is hard, nearly impossible. That's why you see people who try often mocked. They are either perma bear or just early. Sometimes YEARS early. I've been there. I thought 2021 was it and this large-scale fall had started. Top callers who can't pivot when wrong get left behind. As I did at first, before finally jumping on the wagon. But there are times when its just not worth it to chase the last piece of meat on the bone. As the ones who fail to get out will end up holding the bag. The ones who try to buy the dip after the top will be exit liquidity for others and will be holding a bag. I personally see this market as too risky to stay aggressively long in. But I'm not even 50% cash. That's because I'm invested in setups that I believe are probable. Some of them would do really well in a declining market. Some will do well in a strong market. I know where each one will fail and will get out accordingly once those levels break. But again, this market needs a significant correction just to resume a healthy look. There is far more to lose up here, in my opinion, than to gain. And with the reverse repo approaching late 2019 levels, it's getting close to time that a selloff won't have any liquidity to buy it.
Quote:
The upper $641 target is also the trendline target, and the 161.8% extension, of the move off the 2022 lows. That kind of confluence between short term and medium-term targets can tend to be a magnet. This 2-3 year move could ALSO be an ending diagonal, though it's hard to tell because it never overlapped. Non-overlapping diagonals ARE possible, but I don't count them as reliable for playing any sort of reversal. Still, it's possible. And if it IS an ending diagonal, then the reversal would target $350-$410 range within 2-3 years. If it's not, I still think it's likely that the $500 level that I expect to see by late this year is merely the first wave of a bigger correction. The only thing that would change my mind is if it dropped RIGHT NOW to $500. That would actually be the best-case scenario, as getting there without making a new high first would point to a bottom that could lead to $667-$700 as the next move into next year. It would be a healthy drop within the larger structure. No matter what, that $500 range will have to hold once the market approaches it for any chance at future highs.
My business is as busy as ever. Mostly cash pay healthcare.Quo Vadis? said:
I've heard rumblings from buddies in various industries that business is SLOW slow. Not "we had a down month" but "this is the worst month since Covid" slow.
Anecdotally my US business unit (manufacturer of drilling equipment for mining, water-well, o&g) had its slowest month in 4 years, it was just offset by a boom internationally and in construction.
This isn't just industry either, a buddy who brokers aircraft's said he didn't book a deal all June, and that's never happened to him outside of '22. Same with a buddy who is the GM of a car dealership and a friend who is a Regional Manager for a supermarket chain. They all said it's super-slow, and their finger is hovering over the "layoff" button.
Anyone else seeing this?
Hoyt Ag said:
Elk/deer hunting guide in the fall;
furniture flipping and custom builds
Rent basement out to seasonal workers for Forest Service/BLM
3D printing
Can you find the quote?Captain Winky said:
Well, you also said that the drop in the stock market because of that Japan currency thing was just the beginning of a huge and sustained drop. You told people to buckle up because this was the real one. I think that drop lasted a few days and now we don't hear anything about it.
Nothing spooks markets like a squeeze in the Yen carry trade. When that trade goes south, it impacts everything. We got a taste of that last August. Pass and no thank you.Captain Winky said:
Well, you also said that the drop in the stock market because of that Japan currency thing was just the beginning of a huge and sustained drop. You told people to buckle up because this was the real one. I think that drop lasted a few days and now we don't hear anything about it.
Read again. The 2022 drop had all the looks of the beginning of something more bearish. Once it invalidated, I pivoted. Have I not been posting stock picks for years now? Weird for a bear..Mr.Milkshake said:
Am I wrong in pointing out that you have been and are a long term bear looking for the big one? I think you called yourself out that this has been the case since at least 2021.
Also, I don't think you were a buyer on this dip nor after it bounced and not until we were back near ATHs. So while if you sift through pa spider web of multiple what ifs, we can find that one of your what ifs played out, you yourself didn't take the trade.
Not really the point though. Point is that the fear porn is fun but never accurate and it's certainly not tradable. I doubt you're going to exit and go to gold after we get to 6,600-7,000.
I like your analysis to be frank, just think you're way too hell bent on the wold collapse coming
Seeing this up here on the South Plains. Some of the residential and commercial real estate projects have slowed a little - especially residential, but its crazy how electrical and mechanical prices have stayed high. As mentioned, tons of school and medical projects keeping them plenty busy.AgShaun00 said:
electrical construction is full blast! nothing stopping that for a long time. Commercial buildings are down, but schools, hospitals, and data centers, you can't keep up.
MaroonStain said:
That's it. I'm selling everything on Monday and going all-in on $FBTC. The end is nigh.
Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:MaroonStain said:
That's it. I'm selling everything on Monday and going all-in on $FBTC. The end is nigh.
Not a terrible move if you can hold for at least 4 years.
MaroonStain said:Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:MaroonStain said:
That's it. I'm selling everything on Monday and going all-in on $FBTC. The end is nigh.
Not a terrible move if you can hold for at least 4 years.
IMO, not now. Definitely April 2025 or October 2024 but I am late to the BTC roller coaster.
Right now I am up about 35% YTD overall on my portfolio and put 12% trailing stop losses on most everything just in case we do have a significant reversaljgw02 said:
So how do we prepare for the potential of large black swan event decline? Currently I am 75% equities, 15% alternatives and 10% bonds. Should we just be ready when it starts happening to sell out and move to cash? Gold?
What's your plan on CORZ, now? I have some, and not sure how I want to proceed at this point?Heineken-Ashi said:
I'm very very long on CORZ. I'm doing quite well since the Aprils
I need to read up on the Coreweave acquisition. Very busy this morning. Holding support for now.I bleed maroon said:What's your plan on CORZ, now? I have some, and not sure how I want to proceed at this point?Heineken-Ashi said:
I'm very very long on CORZ. I'm doing quite well since the Aprils
Shoot me an email with y'alls capabilites. Most of the outsourcing we do is structural skids and cut plate parts. We'll sub out some pipe work and smaller vessels from time to time as well.BCG Disciple said:
We're kind of slow. In the steel fab business. Available for outsourcing if you need help with that big order!
So the offers is essentially $20 per share from what I've read. But here's the thing.. is that just accounting for CORZ shares? Because I would think they have to buy the CORZ warrants which eventually convert 1:1 to shares by 2029. If the $9B price includes the warrants, then you have to add the total number or warrants to total shares outstanding and divide that into $9B to get the per share fair price.I bleed maroon said:What's your plan on CORZ, now? I have some, and not sure how I want to proceed at this point?Heineken-Ashi said:
I'm very very long on CORZ. I'm doing quite well since the Aprils
Don't let anyone give you any sheet. Your posts and insights are some of the best on the board.Heineken-Ashi said:Read again. The 2022 drop had all the looks of the beginning of something more bearish. Once it invalidated, I pivoted. Have I not been posting stock picks for years now? Weird for a bear..Mr.Milkshake said:
Am I wrong in pointing out that you have been and are a long term bear looking for the big one? I think you called yourself out that this has been the case since at least 2021.
Also, I don't think you were a buyer on this dip nor after it bounced and not until we were back near ATHs. So while if you sift through pa spider web of multiple what ifs, we can find that one of your what ifs played out, you yourself didn't take the trade.
Not really the point though. Point is that the fear porn is fun but never accurate and it's certainly not tradable. I doubt you're going to exit and go to gold after we get to 6,600-7,000.
I like your analysis to be frank, just think you're way too hell bent on the wold collapse coming
And this is where people like you don't understand the difference between youtube top callers and people like me. I'm looking for a specific pattern that will warn of a larger decline. When I get one close enough, I go risk off until it invalidates, like 2023 did to the 2022 pattern. You also fail to mention that under my previous username I was calling for SPX 5500+ back in 2021 before 2022 sold deeper than expected. I'm neither bear nor bull. I take the market as I see it and try to remove emotion. My longer-term outlook has been that I'm looking for a generational top. I am not wavering from that position. It's just a matter of when the euphoria ends, because it will. And the bear market that ensues will destroy people haven't managed their risk. Like I've said many times, I don't think I care if I catch the next 20% rise in SPX, if it even happens. I'm more concerned with my money being safe when we get a 50% or more decline. Because the only account value that matters is cash. Everything else is dependent on where the bid meets the ask and can disappear faster than it appeared. But even though I think the longer-term is bleak and worrisome, I've continued to stay invested and provide bullish trade ideas. Because I take every chart on its own and look for quality setups while providing risk management advice for stops. I've been in metals significantly while waiting for a generational top, and those gains have outpaced SPX over the same term.
As for the bolded paragraph, you are wrong. I'm not like you. I don't just buy the S&P. But I was long sector specific since April. Mostly on options in XLY, XLU, and DIA. I had NVDA calls that I was right about on price and didnt assign enough time. I made a lot of money on AMD calls. I'm currently up 40% on a CLSK position I advised just two weeks ago. I'm very very long on CORZ. I'm doing quite well since the Aprils lows. And speaking of those lows, by going to mostly cash in January outside of metals plays, and buying strategic puts on good setups, I made 20% during the March/April decline. How did you do when the market sold off?
One more time, show me where you advised something actionable.
Our family has a steel fab business as well (in DFW); the data center guys haven't come knocking down your door yet?BCG Disciple said:
We're kind of slow. In the steel fab business. Available for outsourcing if you need help with that big order!
Covid was expansion of money supply and direct stimulus, for the first time ever, directly into bank accounts of people and businesses.Jason_Roofer said:
Investments are up and doing really well. Roofing is ok and my other businesses are ok but a bit reserved. Business is steady but there is definitely an overall sense of stagnation. People just don't seem to be willing to spend money like in previous years. Covid years were among the most profitable and I guess I figured they shouldn't have been. From the economic pros here, what do you think is the driver to business that is slow? Is there some doom we aren't aware of that people are sensing? Fortunately for me, roofing and insurance is a requirement so people either come up with the money or they don't do it. Certain sectors that I used to work with a lot have tightened up a so I started focusing on higher end residential and commercial.
But what is causing the tightening of budgets?
AgOutsideAustin said:
So basically one shoe has dropped and we are just waiting on the other.
MaroonStain said:AgOutsideAustin said:
So basically one shoe has dropped and we are just waiting on the other.
OP is a doom and gloom griefer on every board
