At first I thought I was, but as I've read/watched more of the internet, I'm less convinced.
I plan to retire within the next 18 months at age 50 and my wife will continue to work for another 5 years because she wants to.
I expect a significant market correction in the next year, probably sooner than later. Our assets are in good shape right now, such that we don't *need* more than we already have to execute our retirement plan.
We were pretty aggressively invested at nearly 100% in equities...mostly using index funds, until this week. I just pulled all of our retirement money out of the market and plan to put it all in more "defensive" positions once I figure out how I want to do it. For now, it is all in inexpensive bond index ETFs. The plan is to preserve what we have and probably get back in via DCA down the road.
So I've convinced myself I'm not trying to time the market, I'm just getting more conservatively invested. Deciding when to get back in? That's probably timing the market.

What do you think?
Anyone else not timing the market like me?
Thoughts on defensive positions?

Well, I ran through this mental exercise as I just retired at 51. We ultimately did not pull everything out of equities but I did de-risk down to 75/25 equities/fixed income. Currently in the process of moving down to 70/30.

I question every day if I shouldn't go at least 50/50.

To answer your question, I think you are timing the market, but you also are doing it against a major life event that would warrant a significant change in your allocation mix based on historical strategy and precedent.

I've been listening to a lot of episodes of Risk Parity Radio podcast. It talks about portfolio diversification once you move past the accumulation phase.

I think your position would be prime for the Golden Ratio Portfolio.



https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

The Risk Parity Radio podcast has a lot of audio drops that can make it hard to follow, but the hosts appearance on Bigger Pockets Money seemed much more "normal".

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/biggerpockets-money-podcast/id1330225136?i=1000717350182

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/biggerpockets-money-podcast/id1330225136?i=1000717950633

I've recently started parking some money in a few funds that I think will have less exposure to a big market drop.

AQR Long Short - QLENX
AQR Trend Total Return - QNZNX (I'm a little less confident on this one)
Bridgewaters All Weather etf - ALLW

And some bonds via AGG. (Think I need to shift that to something else actually)

Interesting. Thanks for posting.

How are they holding gold if this is all at Fidelity? A gold fund?

What sort of assets are you getting income from to bridge the gap between 50 and 55 when you can start doing 401k withdrawals without penalties?

You didn't ask me but I'll answer since I'm in same spot.

We have 2 years of cash we will burn first and then we get $50k per year spun off a bond ladder. Beyond that I can sell equities from our taxable accounts. We have an inherited Roth we will have to take RMDs from in a few years as well.

In addition, my wife started her own business and our goal for her is to make $40-50k per year as a conservative annual income. She's going to hit $20k in year one which is more than I anticipated so that's a great start.

I really just want her to make enough to cover all of our housing costs which are high.

"expect a significant market correction"


How much percent wise ?

Thanks for the thoughts so far. I expected to be treated more harshly.
The golden ratio portfolio looks interesting. Thanks Chris.

Our retirement accounts represent about 2/3 of our savings and I haven't touched the taxable stuff, so we continue to have market exposure there.

YouBet said:

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Interesting. Thanks for posting.

How are they holding gold if this is all at Fidelity? A gold fund?

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Yes, Gold etf.

GLDM

Thunderstruck xx said:

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What sort of assets are you getting income from to bridge the gap between 50 and 55 when you can start doing 401k withdrawals without penalties?

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My wife will still be working for those years. She likes work, has a good income and has great benefits.

JP76 said:

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"expect a significant market correction"


How much percent wise ?

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I have no idea, nor does anyone. Totally guessing, 20-30%.
For the money I just took conservative, if I miss out on 20% more gains and then there is a 20% correction, I'm still ahead.
These are the things you tell yourself when you are making a questionable decision.

This is a channel on the tv?

So old school…

Open ChatGPT and google …

Whenever the feds talk, it gets f'ing crazy.

You see this big green candle but then the feds talk.

Omg it gets better every time you watch it.

I retired 7 years ago, had to begin RMD's a year later (it was 72 then). 3 years savings in a cash account, one IRA in stocks I picked, another in stocks picked by 3 management teams, another is in about 10 different sector ETF's. 100% equity. Paying about 50 BP's for the management of that one account. Despite the RMD's the account has managed to double and then some in those 7 years. A 20% hit will annoy me, that's about it. Most of my "losses" came from the account I pick stocks in, not losses per se but opportunity losses in that they came from selling because I got tired of watching them go down, and then they rebounded. FB, ELF are 2 examples. Passive management has done me a pretty good job.

Thunderstruck xx said:

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What sort of assets are you getting income from to bridge the gap between 50 and 55 when you can start doing 401k withdrawals without penalties?

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From my understanding in order to be eligible for the rule of 55, you have to leave your current employer after the age of 55, and can only withdraw 401k money from that employer's 401k plan. Since the OP is retiring at the age of 50, they wont be able to access their 401k at age 55 without the standard penalties.

My company offers in service 401k rollovers to a self directed brokerage. I finally decided to take advantage of that this week, which is how my money left the market. Moving to the self directed brokerage rules out the Rule of 55.

Typical advice is to de risk(if at 100% equities) 3-5 years before retirement date. So fine there but also fine not to do that. Tons of factors but especially if you're already at your $. I'm semi retired at age 36. But check out 42 Macro it's been great for me. Another is Root financial(I don't use them). Also Grok is really good at Monte Carlo simulations if you want to play with some scenarios.

Quote:

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Our assets are in good shape right now, such that we don't *need* more than we already have to execute our retirement plan.

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Then ask yourself if the upside of having more money in retirement is worth the downside of potentially not having enough to retire.

If it's not, then stick what figure you previously decided on you needed into something safe that keeps pace with inflation, keep the rest invested aggressively, and enjoy retirement.

You've won the game - no sense in continuing to play it unless you actually yearn for more "things".

I wouldn't retire until the effects of whatever QE they implement flush through the market and your retirement assets.

MEENag said:

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My company offers in service 401k rollovers to a self directed brokerage. I finally decided to take advantage of that this week, which is how my money left the market. Moving to the self directed brokerage rules out the Rule of 55.

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For the entire 401k or just the piece thats in self directed?

The self directed funds go to an IRA/Roth IRA. Whatever you send there can't use the rule of 55. We can move whatever % to self directed we want.

MEENag said:

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The self directed funds go to an IRA/Roth IRA. Whatever you send there can't use the rule of 55. We can move whatever % to self directed we want.

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And self directed is still tax deferred like the regular 401K?

Whatever was in the tax deferred 401k goes to a regular IRA and whatever was in the Roth 401k goes to the Roth IRA. You can move either or both to self directed. New contributions still go into the 401k and you have to move it over to the self directed account.
I'm not sure how it would work, but there are buttons to move the self directed funds back to the 401k as well.

Ok, sounds like self directed is still taxed the same way money in a regular 401K works, whether its Non Roth or Roth.

Its just an extension of thr 401K, whether its Non Roth or Roth

You know different companies have different rules on 401K withdrawals and transfers. Instead of asking a message board what to do why not just query your 40iK administrator?

Who is asking what to do? Jamey just seems interested in how my self directed plan works. From what I understand, they are quite rare except for after you turn 59.5.

Without knowing what percentage of your account you pulled out of the market it's hard to say.

It makes sense to diversify as you get closer to retirement and when equities are near all time high that is a good time to diversify out.

If you are going to a higher bond allocation now with the expectation to get back into equities later at a lower price then yes that is textbook market timing.

permabull said:

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If you are going to a higher bond allocation now with the expectation to get back into equities later at a lower price then yes that is textbook market timing.

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When I first posted this I had convinced myself I wasn't timing the market, I was just reducing risk, but also limiting gains. I've continued to read and watch interviews with various financial "experts" and I'm even more convinced that I'm not timing the market. I feel like every expert I've seen says that we should be reducing our exposure to this oversold market to varying degrees. They all expect a downturn in the next year-ish.
I'm also getting the impression that the widespread adoption of the Boglehead and buy and hold philosophies, amongst others, has oversimplified investing for casual investors like me to the exclusion of situational logic. I think a lot of money is going to be lost as a result.
Being close to retirement might be skewing my opinion, or I might be an investing-dummy.

What about keeping 5 to 10% cash on hand to buy dips


Is that timing the market?

MEENag said:

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permabull said:

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If you are going to a higher bond allocation now with the expectation to get back into equities later at a lower price then yes that is textbook market timing.

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When I first posted this I had convinced myself I wasn't timing the market, I was just reducing risk, but also limiting gains. I've continued to read and watch interviews with various financial "experts" and I'm even more convinced that I'm not timing the market. I feel like every expert I've seen says that we should be reducing our exposure to this oversold market to varying degrees. They all expect a downturn in the next year-ish.
I'm also getting the impression that the widespread adoption of the Boglehead and buy and hold philosophies, amongst others, has oversimplified investing for casual investors like me to the exclusion of situational logic. I think a lot of money is going to be lost as a result.
Being close to retirement might be skewing my opinion, or I might be an investing-dummy.

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Of course you are timing the market. That doesn't make it a bad thing.

If I understand you correctly, you want to exit equities because you feel there will be a market downturn. That's the dictionary definition of timing the market. If you had instead set up a reallocation toward a higher % of bonds or something less exposed to market volatility (say 1/12 each month over the next year), that's a simple de-risking, and a portfolio reallocation. Doing it all at once with your stated goal of re-entering later is absolutely trying to time the market.

Bottom line, if it makes you feel safer, and more comfortable in avoiding losses near-term, there's absolutely nothing wrong with timing the market.

I'll point out what permabull and I said with his statement here:

Quote:

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It makes sense to diversify as you get closer to retirement and when equities are near all time high that is a good time to diversify out.

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You are exiting/diversifying equities because you plan to retire soon. Every expert out there will tell you that de-risking your portfolio to preserve your balance ahead of retirement is what you do. Very few people are going to tell you to be all-in on equities. Thus, the reason everyone puts out risk profiles where you get less risky as you get older.

If you are already have enough to retire on and have hit your number, then maintaining a high risk profile is frankly negligence against yourself. And this is regardless of what your personal opinion might be on the state of the market in the coming year.

EliteZags said:

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if anyone was looking for a top signal

This might be the most unintentionally hilarious video I have ever seen pic.twitter.com/G5wjMv0EOE

— rain (@redactedrain) September 23, 2025

"what channel did you say?"

"CBC... CNBC, C.N.B.C... News"

-takes notes




the impressive Lunchables charcuterie board

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I would like to analyze that channel to understand a few more concepts including braless belly shirts

I bleed maroon said what I mean much better than I did. I know I really am timing the market, I've just come to realize it isn't as frowned upon in certain forms as I was lead to believe.