I only have 20% of my assets in a company profit sharing plan that I can't contribute to. They literally just started last month offering a 401k, so I set it up to start contributing some, but otherwise they just give me 15% of salary, up to 8 full year contributions at this point, so I was fine with not contributing to 401k since I've been here.

That plan is roughly 1/3 each of;
Global Aggressive Allocation
Mid-Cap Blend
Small Growth

My other 80% is rollover & roth ira for me and rollover ira for wife, and those 3 are 75% stock and 25% mutual funds.

Age 45, teetering on $1mm in these investments.

Largest holdings (not including shares in mutual funds);
aapl - 16%
nflx - 10%
amzn - 7.5%
cost - 7%

I have no idea what I'm doing, other than I buy and hold.

EliteZags said:

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AggiEE said:

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You can cherry pick any time period for any asset and show outperformance.

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a period where the S&P500 went nowhere for 13 years but Value compounded at 10% annually.

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subject to poor periods like 1967-1982 or 2000-2013

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Well this year my foreign funds are "obliterating" the S&P500.

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My developed small cap value fund has returned over 3X the S&P500's fund YTD on price alone, and delivers 3X the dividends to boot.

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wait so who's doing the cherry-picking?

and so to b clear you've only been in that allocation 2000-2013 and this year? thus how it has served you well

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Serving well does not mean that it had the best possible outcome for any specific period of time.

I'm not cherry picking at all, I've acknowledged that the S&P500 has been hard to beat the last decade. My point is that we should not expect it to outperform perpetually against all asset classes all the time.

Here's the results for the last 25 years:

https://testfol.io/?s=b1eLs70fBpJ

50% Fidelity 500
50% Fidelity target date retirement fund 2045 which is 5 years longer than my actual 65 yo target date , just because I wanted to stay slightly more aggressive


As I get around 60 years old than I will slowly covert over 5 years all of my fidelity 500 to target date retirement fund

No cash flows isn't a very accurate representation of real results. Cash flows included the S&P is still superior over that period.

hph6203 said:

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No cash flows isn't a very accurate representation of real results. Cash flows included the S&P is still superior over that period.

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Of course it's relevant and accurate for someone with the majority of their wealth built up already, where contributions are insignificant in comparison.

Cash flows looking better is a reflection of the duration the S&P500 has outperformed recently. That doesn't disprove my overall point of diversification.

AggiEE said:

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Of course it's relevant and accurate for someone with the majority of their wealth built up already, where contributions are insignificant in comparison.

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so it's a cherrypicked time period and retirement date, cool

EliteZags said:

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AggiEE said:

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Of course it's relevant and accurate for someone with the majority of their wealth built up already, where contributions are insignificant in comparison.

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so it's a cherrypicked time period and retirement date, cool

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And what exactly are you trying to argue?

You provided absolutely no substance to your initial post other than an assumptive comment that my portfolio was "obliterated" by the S&P500.

I'm pointing out that each asset class type will have its day in the sun. I'm happy to own the S&P when it does outperform, and also happy to not exclusively own it when it does not. But there should not be any expectation that it will have higher returns over a long enough horizon, relative to alternatives with similar or greater risk profiles, particularly with such a high valuation gap at the present moment.

jamey said:

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I know some have other investments which I suppose could change how 401K is allocated so share that of it changed your 401K allocation

For me
Large caps - 44%
Global - 22% (includes mag 7 @40% of S&P and a total of 36% international funds)
Broad Market Bonds - 20%
Stable value - 9.5%
Crypto - 4.5%

Thoughts welcome. I'm 56 yrs old

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OP. This is tough to answer in a vacuum. What is the status of your taxable portfolio? If you have a combined (taxable versus tax-deferred) portfolio that is balanced (60/40, per se), the wise move for lower taxes and greater long term wealth is put the fixed income portion of your portfolio in the tax-deferred accounts and equities in your taxable accounts. Your ongoing annual tax bill will be lower, and your capital gains from stock appreciation will be taxed at cap gains rates instead of normal income tax rates when you ultimately are forced to take the money out.

If you are merely in equity and cash, then this obviously doesn't make sense. But if you are conservatively running a balanced portfolio, it is something to consider.

northeastag said:

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jamey said:

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I know some have other investments which I suppose could change how 401K is allocated so share that of it changed your 401K allocation

For me
Large caps - 44%
Global - 22% (includes mag 7 @40% of S&P and a total of 36% international funds)
Broad Market Bonds - 20%
Stable value - 9.5%
Crypto - 4.5%

Thoughts welcome. I'm 56 yrs old

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OP. This is tough to answer in a vacuum. What is the status of your taxable portfolio? If you have a combined (taxable versus tax-deferred) portfolio that is balanced (60/40, per se), the wise move for lower taxes and greater long term wealth is put the fixed income portion of your portfolio in the tax-deferred accounts and equities in your taxable accounts. Your ongoing annual tax bill will be lower, and your capital gains from stock appreciation will be taxed at cap gains rates instead of normal income tax rates when you ultimately are forced to take the money out.

If you are merely in equity and cash, then this obviously doesn't make sense. But if you are conservatively running a balanced portfolio, it is something to consider.

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That's a good point. Im 80/20 stocks to bonds in both my 401K and taxable account.

I'm not sure I'll ever go to 60/40 in the modern bond landscape. It doesn't feel like the safe haven it once was. Perhaps once I'm retired, assuming rates aren't near zero. Everything I have in bonds right now has rates above 4% range

one MEEN Ag said:

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If you are not on your deathbed you should be in 100% stocks or risk similar assets. Even if you are on your deathbed, after 30+ years of growth you'll be able to manage a draw down well.

Stocks are realistically the only vehicle that can swallow inflation.

It doesn't take many years of good stock exchange returns to basically launch your portfolio on a trajectory that even a run of bad years can't weigh it down to equal a bag full of bonds and 3rd world country names.

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I am not 100% in stocks but I agree with your overall thesis

even being 54 now, and three 3 years from early retirement at age 57 I still think it makes most financial sense to continue to be overweight in equities.

$90,000 in CDs, back door Roth, cash

$700,000 in corporate 401K exchange traded funds (international, big cap, small cap, SP tracker, bond funds)

$20,000 government bonds

$635,000 fidelity private brokerage mostly individual stocks, ETFs and GOLD.

$100,000 BTC

37
65% VIGAX
35% VTSAX

LMCane said:

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even being 54 now, and three 3 years from early retirement at age 57 I still think it makes most financial sense to continue to be overweight in equities.

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I'm not sure this adds up. This close to retirement and a market that many are describing as possibly having multiple bubbles, it seems like it's time for a little more caution.

I cashed the whole thing out and bought physical silver.

lobopride said:

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I cashed the whole thing out and bought physical silver.

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Recently?

I thought about converting some bond money into silver or gold but feel like I missed the bus

jamey said:

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lobopride said:

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I cashed the whole thing out and bought physical silver.

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Recently?

I thought about converting some bond money into silver or gold but feel like I missed the bus

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Yes. I think spot price was $38 when I did it.

Fidelity Brokeragelink (actively trade in this one):
25% QQQM
25% BRKU
21% VTI
6% BBAI
Rest in cash

Current employer 401k (much smaller account):
100% BRKB

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Fidelity Brokeragelink (actively trade in this one):
25% QQQM
25% BRKU
21% VTI
6% BBAI
Rest in cash

Current employer 401k (much smaller account):
100% BRKB

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No TQQQ? I am a little disappointed!