Well that settles it then.

I am selling when it gets to $91 and will hopefully get back at low 70s. Its a tech bros ponzi scheme but it sure is fun....

If Oct was this cycles peak, and previous cycles still have predictive value, the price will bottom out around midterms next year. Somewhere between $20-40k.

Pro Tip: If this guy could accurately predict which way Bitcoin is going to go with high confidence, he wouldn't be posting on Yahoo finance.

Probably does grind lower in the absence of a macro market squeeze up to new ATHs above 7K on ES. If there is a major macro breakdown, then crypto gets hit hard. In that case, MSTR and to lesser degree BMNR get crushed, possibly forced liquidation....then we have FTX 2.0.

I could see bears getting trapped next couple weeks, then bulls getting trapped into Jan. Violent moves both ways.

OP. Bitcoin isn't likely to "crash". There are too many fools and ignoramus that believe it has infinite value and will buy on the dips. So it will be propped up over the near term by its true believers. Longer term, maybe a slow drift down as larger players gradually pull out for better opportunities.

northeastag said:

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OP. Bitcoin isn't likely to "crash". There are too many fools and ignoramus that believe it has infinite value and will buy on the dips. So it will be propped up over the near term by its true believers. Longer term, maybe a slow drift down as larger players gradually pull out for better opportunities.

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Or every major country un the world continues to spend like teenagers handed a credit card and no rules and bitcoin continues up long term regardless of the short term

Obligatory

Man I sure hope there's no illicit activity tied to USD, that would be really bad

USD is for Starbucks, big screen TVs, and 50 year mortgages.
Bitcoin is for fentanyl, three legged escorts, and money laundering.

Anyone who says differently is obviously up to no good.

To start this is my own personal hypothesis, I could be wrong.

Bitcoin is a pure speculative asset. The four year cycles have been fueled by reduced supply (Halving) and increase liquidity in the general market. People buy post halving speculating the price will increase due to a supply and demand ratio playing out in their favor. So far that has played out very well. So it's become a self fulfilling prophecy to a degree. Easy money really. However on the backend of those cycles have been brutal bear year. Which I don't think we have this time.

What I predict is going to happen is as we approach the next halving, April 2028, we will see the historical post halving pump get front ran so hard. When the halving occurs combined with the front running I believe we will see a brutal crash instead of a pump breaking the historic trend. The combination of the liquidity entering in before the halving and the diminished halving effect the post halving pump won't occur. Once the market sniffs out the cycle is broken it'll be a brutal race toward the exit because the fundamental value of Bitcoin is this: "pumps after halving". If that's invalidated it'll be nasty.

And what gives me conviction this is the most likely scenario is we saw btc actually break its ATH and massive run up PRIOR to the last halving. Most of that was explained by the ETF but I think it was just the halving getting front ran. And since we still had a really good post halving rally next halving will be front ran to extreme levels the liquidity will be spent before the halving.

Again I could be wrong but if we see a big time rally in the late2027 or early 2028 I'll short the crap out of ibit. Especially if we see an influx of people saying it's easy money etc to buy btc right before the halving

I can't believe this gif hasn't been posted yet.



This seems like pretty normal behavior for BTC. If it really does drop into the $20k range again that is a good buying opportunity.

LMCane said:

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Ducks4brkfast said:

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LMCane said:

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the point no one discusses is that as the old people die off, they leave their money to kids and grandkids

are the kids and grandkids in 2027 going to buy IBM or crypto?

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These "kids" are likely in their 60s.

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so you don't think wealthy grandparents leave any of their estate to their grandkids?

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I don't think a super niche segment of the population is going to move the needle much on bitcoin.