Three possibilities from measuring AI roi in my opinion
1. AI isn't ready, the cost benefit curve with energy doesn't warrant the investment, etc. In each of these cases, across publicly traded companies you might see an uptick in opex but little else. This will lead to a very large market correction
2. AI roi converges around automation. Across public companies, we see a reduction in SG&A. Corresponding uptick in unemployment. I think this still leads to a market correction. I would remain worried about market fundamentals because I think pricing models for token consumption today are unlikely to remain consistent or even within an order of magnitude from a pricing perspective so headcount reduction today creates more problems in the future. I hate the message around AI replaces 90% of jobs. I think the people stating that I have a very dim view of humanity.
3. AI continues to evolve around domain specific architecture and models. This has the effect of increasing organizational maturity. Across any business function it's not just that people are moving faster. It's that they are more effective because AI is delivering insights from deep pattern recognition that low to mid-level performers would otherwise miss. This will reflect all across the income statement and balance sheet, but most notably on the top line. All else held constant, if we see top line growth over the next 12 months while sg&a/cogs remain controlled, that's your ROI for AI. same story on the balance sheet with things like your cash conversion cycle and inventory levels.
