Not 100% in tune with the Evergrande details and exactly what cuased it but I read that another Chinese Real Estate Firm failed to pay a $200M loan payment this week. The article had some chatter about underlying problems within the Chinese real estate market and potential economic ramifications.

Anybody think this can happen over here?

southernskies said:

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Not 100% in tune with the Evergrande details and exactly what cuased it but I read that another Chinese Real Estate Firm failed to pay a $200M loan payment this week. The article had some chatter about underlying problems within the Chinese real estate market and potential economic ramifications.

Anybody think this can happen over here?

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I think it would be tough. Biggest concern would be the Chinese market falling and causing a global liquidity crisis. Ultimately, I think that would be pushing more capital to safe havens like the US and our Bond/Treasury market alongside the real estate market. Another concern would be inflation getting worse than expected and could impact real estate prices since debt would get more expensive, but inflation would have to be pretty high for it to have the drastic effect you'd expect.

Overall, I think we will see events that are going to cause flight to more value orientated ownership bases, including real estate because its real and tangible. So long as there isn't a ton of widespread job losses stateside, I think we are going to be ok. I'd be more worried about on-going affordability crisis and the threat of gooberment legislation derailing. Liquidity crisis would also widen the gap between the haves and the have-nots (who would have more issues obtaining debt to buy).

Of course, I am someone who slings real estate deals for a living so I would have rose tinted glasses and I am not an economist or expert. There is a large chance that I am totally wrong.

^^^^^
This is a really good example of what I mean when I post that Luke can run circles around the average real estate agent. Oh, and we rebate buyers 2%.

China has a much bigger problem with energy shortages. Their production is having lots of disruptions. I'd watch that more.

The govt can bail out the realty problem not so much energy

What's the affect, if any on other Chinese companies/stocks...like BABA, JD...?

SteveBott said:

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China has a much bigger problem with energy shortages. Their production is having lots of disruptions. I'd watch that more.

The govt can bail out the realty problem not so much energy

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And they can't do anything to help solve the energy problems since they shot themselves in the foot with boycotting Australia's Coal due them asking about COVID 19 Origins. They quickly discovered their alternative sources they were to rely upon can't deliver enough coal. And that doesn't factor in any preparations for Winter and the expected energy usage then.

Long story short - start your Christmas shopping now and expect there to be much less items coming if factories normally running 7 days a week, only being told to run 4-days for 8 hours a day or best case 3 days off after 7 continuous days of running. They have not many supplies and they will need to make some tough decisions ahead of the cold weather.

2% rebate you say....that is tempting

southernskies said:

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2% rebate you say....that is tempting

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We cover all Texas markets and on top of that, several of our agents (including Luke and myself), have Masters Degrees in Real Estate from A&M, which is a top 5 program worldwide, so you know we know our business. We'd love to help you. Contact info is in my profile.

Jamie