The 10-year Treasury closed last week at 2.70% up from the previous week's 2.38%.

The Bankrate forecast is about rates over the next few months:

Trend: Higher. Three things are driving rates higher: inflation, inflation and inflation. Inflation is being
driven, in part, by a too-high money supply. Correction of the too-high money supply necessitates
that the Fed sell MBS which will drive rates up. QE made for low rates and lots of refi business.
The waiter is now coming to the table with the bill.

As the Fed tries to raise rates and lower money supply in order to reduce inflation keep in mind
that the Fed has never been able to successfully do this. Fear of recession stops the process.

One of the foremost economists specializing in fixed income securities is Lacy Hunt. Hunt
believes that a high ratio of debt/GDP will lead to an extended period of low GDP growth
and low rates. This video is 36 minutes long
Hunt's point is that collective debt burden (government, corporate, and individual) is so large that
an entity cannot take on additional debt to finance future projects. This includes entities which are
profitable enough to be able to reduce indebtedness over time. Google "Debt overhang."

Home Prices

This is a piece on Bankrate about how home prices may be affected by higher mortgage rates:

https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/will-the-rise-in-mortgage-rates-hurt-home-prices/

Last Week:

The important number in the BLS Jobs Report may have been the Average Hourly Wage moving up
to 5.6% year/year. Unlike inflation in the price of goods, increases in wages do not go away unless
there is recession.

This week:

Tuesday: CPI. Since expectation is about 6.5% year/year ex-food/energy this could help rates move a
bit lower if the print is less than that.

Thursday: Retail Sales