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OpenDoor losses

5,596 Views | 26 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Red Pear Felipe
malenurse
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https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/bloomberg-home-flipper-opendoor-hit.html

Main point: Open door lost money on 42% of all transactions in August
Diggity
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but I hear they made it up on volume
malenurse
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Ahh, the Lawrence Marshall Chevy business plan
Dill-Ag13
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Can't techify and generalize something as nichy, sales focused, and microeconomic such as residential real estate
JBLHAG03
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Every OpenDoor house I've gone into has been awful. They buy houses no one else wants then try to charge a premium. Very dumb.
Ol_Ag_02
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Diggity said:

but I hear they made it up on volume


58% of the time, works every time.
SteveBott
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EDIT: Emoji fail. Not my intent.

In my 22 years I've seen company after another try to change the metrics on the sales cycle. And everyone went gone soon enough. As said there is only so much you can increase efficiency and lower costs with tech solutions or applying other business models. Houses aren't cars or computers.

On site inspections will never go away. It is a people business
Buck Compton
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Cheap money breeds foolish investments. This is nothing more. Misallocation of capital.
Jay@AgsReward.com
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And it seems like the "smart" money is especially dumb in this business. Some of the "tech companies" that are nothing but mortgage companies that have gotten huge valuations is flat out incredible.(and some have other failed less then a year after getting 100 mm) They do nothing that others can not do but were able to impress some clueless private equity firm by calling them self Fintech. After talking with a few PE folks it become very clear that they had zero idea how the business works.
BCG Disciple
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What they don't say is how much they printed in the run up of the last few years. I would gladly "lose" on 42% of transactions if it means I still made money in the month or even that there was a mild clawback of absurd profits from the previous year.
Red Pear Realty
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Nailed it.
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Red Pear Realty
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malenurse said:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/bloomberg-home-flipper-opendoor-hit.html

Main point: Open door lost money on 42% of all transactions in August

Couldn't have happened to a better group of people.
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The Fife
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malenurse said:

Ahh, the Lawrence Marshall Chevy business plan
No wonder there was a loss, they don't have a Clobberline!
Diggity
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BCG Disciple said:

What they don't say is how much they printed in the run up of the last few years. I would gladly "lose" on 42% of transactions if it means I still made money in the month or even that there was a mild clawback of absurd profits from the previous year.
doesn't seem like they ever figured out how to turn a profit

Buck Compton
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Diggity said:

BCG Disciple said:

What they don't say is how much they printed in the run up of the last few years. I would gladly "lose" on 42% of transactions if it means I still made money in the month or even that there was a mild clawback of absurd profits from the previous year.
doesn't seem like they ever figured out how to turn a profit


Yikes. That's rough. 9.1% gross margin is way too low for the risk they take out. That's like what bulk volume distributors get.
Diggity
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If you think about it, besides the 5% "service fee" they charge (and the hope/dream of ancillary service profit) they're counting solely on appreciation to feed the rest of their GM. Not a great place to be.



These charts are all shamelessly stolen from Mike DelPrete's 2022 iBuyer Report
The Fife
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It's a great place to be! Assuming you're one of the original investors and sold out ASAP. Anyone still in needs to look for the nearest exit before it's too late.
TXTransplant
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This thread makes me wonder if Vinod Khosla switched from biofuels to real estate "tech."
Yesterday
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My wife, an analyst, went to work for Opendoor last Fall. She basically appraised houses based on pictures, comps etc etc all online.

She is very type A and an amazing analyst. She currently works for Constellation Brands Beer division and prices beer for their Walmart account. She can spot mistakes in 50k line item pricing spreadsheets etc.

Anyhow, their goal was to evaluate 20 houses a day. A Day! They would take 3 human valuations and compare it to their built algorithm and make offers based off of the averages. She told me she could get a maximum of 10 evaluations done if she actually paid attention and looked for good comps. Most of her peers would turn in 20/day of **** evaluations by rushing through just to meet their quota. She would constantly flag other peoples evaluations because they were so far off. They would use golf course houses to compare busy street houses etc. just terrible. Sometimes they were off 6 figures.

She worked there for 6 months when her old company(left to raise our kids) recruited her back. In the end they were so low on houses to value she said they would get 2-4 houses that Opendoor was actually buying and the rest were just practice evaluations. There was nothing for them to value because Opendoor couldn't get enough people willing to get quotes.

Needless to say I'm not surprised they are tanking. I think they can still make money though. There is lots of value in cutting out the 6% realtor fee, or at least making it appear that you are. They just need to re-evaluate their volume and crank out good comps.
itsyourboypookie
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Just need to stick a renter in place, not sell at a lose.
The Dog Lord
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JBLHAG03 said:

Every OpenDoor house I've gone into has been awful. They buy houses no one else wants then try to charge a premium. Very dumb.

Same here. Photos would look ok, but they were terrible as soon as you walked in, the lot would be in a bad spot, etc.
MS08
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Great insight about their process. Glad she got out of there, too. Seems like a racket.
jh0400
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Opendoor bought a house next door to mine at the end of May, and there hasn't been any activity other than the yard crew that comes by weekly for a couple of months. They've lowered their price by 20% since it initially listed which likely means it is listed underwater.
Red Pear Felipe
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You could probably now get a good deal on an Opendoor house if you we're looking, but beware. I was showing some properties to a client last weekend and we must have seen about five Opendoor properties. I would say only one was move in ready. All the others looked like the seller moved out the day before. Opendoor didn't even bother cleaning it up or making minor repairs. They've also dropped their buyer agent commission to 2%. They are trying to cut costs wherever they can from what it looks like.
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TXAggie4Christ
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Most of the Opendoor homes I've show have been subpar: smoke smell, foundation issues, old hvac systems, busy road behind home, inefficient older floor plans.

6+ years as a realtor and 1 Open Door transaction and they made the VA appraisal process a challenge delaying the closing multiple weeks not fixing appriser required repairs.
Jay@AgsReward.com
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and all those are the issues that an algorithm has a hard time picking up. So, they were more or less buying the worst house on the block but comparing it against the average house when making the offer.
Red Pear Felipe
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Opendoor Lays Off 550 Staffers

Quote:

Opendoor CEO Eric Wu said in a blog post that the online real estate company has laid off 550 staffers a move that shrinks its headcount by 18%. Prior to these job cuts, the company had already "scaled back" its workforce "by over 830 positions."

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