"The housing market continues to cool as increasing mortgage interest rates quickly diminish housing affordability. In September, home sales fell more than 15 percent over the year. Under the aggressive monetary policies, housing demand will not recover any time before the central banks see significant progress on inflation. Home prices had been depreciating, and Austin the metro that inflated the most during 2021saw the largest depreciation during the market's abrupt slowdown."

Texas Housing Insight

Dallas

Based on observations in the Dallas market, Sellers are still reluctant to lower pricing even with the increases in interest rates. If Sellers are not needing to sell, they are happy either renting or waiting to see were things shake out. Reverse prospecting emails are at an all time high and Realtors are getting creative and pulling out all the stops to ensure their listings are getting visibility, however, no amount of marketing is gonna bridge the gap between the sustained higher prices and reduced buyer affordability.

On the other hand, Builders with completed spec inventory are pushing specials (higher commissions/closing cost credits) in order to move inventory. Some builders will even offer to buy the rate down into the high 4s low 5s and do everything necessary before lowering price.

The ironic thing is that sellers don't want to lower prices, but the Fed isn't going to stop raising rates until housing prices fall. I guess we will see who bends first.

Houston

• October was one of my busiest months of all time.
• Overall, sales numbers are down YOY (remember 2021 was a watermark year), but inventory is still at 2.8 months. It's a sellers market still, and they know it. Prices are still up YOY.
• It seems that the under $400,000 and over $1M are the hottest markets. Just like all other recessions, it seems like the middle class is going to get hosed once again.
• Rentals are VERY in demand right now. If you are priced out, or don't like your options at current rates, why not rent until some time in the future, right? So says everyone else.
• In my opinion, prices are not really going to adjust until either the government is unable to service its debt, or folks start losing their jobs en masse.
• Breanne, Luke, Felipe, and Jack are all outpacing me in their respective markets compared to my first year with Red Pear. I'm really proud of the work they've done and that they've been able to help so many good Ags already, with more to follow.
• Astros are WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!

https://www.har.com/content/department/mls?y=2022&m=11

ABOR finally release it's data so here it goes...

October Housing Data

Quote:

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"Austin's housing market is still growing, just at a different pace," Cord Shiflet, 2022 ABoR president, said. "We're entering the time of year that is historically a quieter time for home sales. With more available inventory than our area has seen in a decade and price growth stabilizing, buyers have more options today than ever before. Now is the time for homebuyers to sit down with their REALTOR and walk through all possible financing and down payment options."

Dr. Jim Gaines, an economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center, stated that the normalization of the Austin housing market was to be expected and is a similar trend happening across the nation.
"The desire to live in Central Texas remains high compared to other metropolitan areas in the state. The continued creation of jobs and influx of people moving to Austin coupled with companies relocating to the region place Austin in a unique position to weather any potential downturn."

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I had a poster in a previous thread ask if there's a chance that there could be a housing correction in Austin. While that's always a possibility, the scenario is highly unlikely. The Austin area has too many cool factors going for it. We still have a strong economy and people still want to come and move here. I read an article by the Austin Business Journal where they interviewed the head of JPMorgan Chase bank. He raved about the job market and the vibrant Austin culture. Red Pear Luke and I recently helped a client buy a home in Round Rock. He was able to save about $93K off the original listing price. That house sat on the market for about 90 days and the sellers were very excited to sell. Buyers can get deals here even though we are technically in a seller's market. What I really like to see from the data is the 4% rise in median sales price. 4% is considered a healthy rise in home prices.


Austin-Round Rock


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County

evestor1 said:

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Serotonin said:

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evestor1 said:

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I am not advocating a 2% rate with a +/= .5 or anything.


I just feel that it would stabilize the most important investment for regular people. If it was set at lets stay 5% and it was not allowed to go outside of that 4-6% for a long duration I believe we would see more stability in the values of dwellings.



As for commercial and investment SFH ... variable no limit interest rates are all good.

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How would this work? If institutional investors can support a 3% mortgage rate then...it wouldn't be allowed under this scheme?

And if rates float above that band what happens then? There would be 0 demand from investors for lower rates so who steps in to fill the void?

Also this would totally F the Fed who is trying to suck money out of the economy and beat inflation with higher rates. Hard to pull that off when the mortgage market would be exempt.

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sorry i didnt post my complete thesis on smoothed mortgage rates for primary single family homes.


Please pile on my opinion and call me stupid!

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So you have no idea. Thanks for clarifying