Yeah, home prices skyrocketed during the pandemic and haven't returned despite interest rate increases. I wouldn't expect them to return to pre-pandemic price points, but there will be pull back if interest rates remain high and we keep going into recession.

Red Pear BCS Luke said:

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Craziest thing to me is there are still houses flying off the shelves around BCS. Houses in my neighborhood in South College Station have been barely listed a few hours to few days before they go under contract with an offer.

And in Bryan - one of the houses I listed still got multiple offers within a week of listing. Points to evidence of lots of interest if the property is priced right.

But with rates at 6.4% + plus property taxes = still incredibly high monthly payments. That combined with elevated prices is tough to make sense. Then I read an article today talking about the average car purchase price is $50K and average monthly payment is over $1000 a month. How are some people making it?

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These people aren't paying for daycare

Nomenclature said:

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QBCade said:

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Yeah, home prices skyrocketed during the pandemic and haven't returned despite interest rate increases. I wouldn't expect them to return to pre-pandemic price points, but there will be pull back if interest rates remain high and we keep going into recession.

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Low inventory is confounding things.

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This is most of what I've noticed. I'm in the market and have been watching for 3+ months, but there just isn't anything meeting our criteria. Maybe one a month pops up, but it's just not quite right. We've only even walked a house once since we've been shopping.

There's an alternative to that 6.4% you know.

Point buydowns are getting very popular now. I'm seeing large concessions showing up on purchases ($7k - $15k). That may keep new construction loans going for some time, but no idea how long.

This is all just weird....can we go back to 2018, and start over? Anyone have a time machine?

mwp02ag said:

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The question I have is when will the developers stop construction cold. I drive new communities all the time and they all still have dozers breaking ground. I understand we're still undersupplied for needs and I get that builders have to finish things already started but it feels like a ticking time bomb to me. It's more fuel for my hypothesis that buying work force housing, even at higher cost today, will make sense over the next 10 years.

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It's a crazy time. I had a earnest money contract to sell a piece of land to a developer. It had been in place since July 2021. They had recently completed the engineering studies/plans, resolved all of the sticky issues, reached tentative agreement with the city, etc. Right after they submitted their final plans to the city in October 2022 (but before the city zoning vote), they walked. My realtor said that this is happening a lot around the greater Austin area. So, maybe we will see slow down on the new construction side in the future, once the developers burn through their supply of vacant lots. However, I think it is going to take a while for that to happen. As long as people are still buying, they will keep building.

We just bought because it's the first time in a couple years that you could actually look at homes and negotiate. We got our new home at 6% below lender appraisal.

We had been in our current home long enough to experience significant appreciation and this equity increased our buying power.
I'll refinance if / when rates come down.

Increased wages are going to help some home buyers keep up. New positions at my company are commanding double what they were 5 years ago. I'm baffled at todays salaries for young professionals.

Only reason we could buy our home in this market was because of inheriting my father-in-law's fully paid off home a few years ago. Allowed us to be more competitive with a cash offer, and we don't have a mortgage (it's a smaller place than his was). We would've otherwise been royally screwed trying to (A) have a competitive offer and (B) afford close to what we wanted.

Our cars are about to be paid off, and we're thankfully driving way less than we did due to remote/hybrid jobs. We're going to keep making our "monthly payments" to ourselves to save for our next vehicles, but it feels like it won't even be that much of a down payment for what prices will be in 5-7 years (or even if they stayed the same as today).

The Dog Lord said:

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Only reason we could buy our home in this market was because of inheriting my father-in-law's fully paid off home a few years ago. Allowed us to be more competitive with a cash offer, and we don't have a mortgage (it's a smaller place than his was). We would've otherwise been royally screwed trying to (A) have a competitive offer and (B) afford close to what we wanted.

Our cars are about to be paid off, and we're thankfully driving way less than we did due to remote/hybrid jobs. We're going to keep making our "monthly payments" to ourselves to save for our next vehicles, but it feels like it won't even be that much of a down payment for what prices will be in 5-7 years (or even if they stayed the same as today).

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And then they will all be EVs and there will be another supply crunch.

Jinx said:

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It's rough. We've been trying to go from rental to owning for a couple years now and it just feels like having a carrot dangled in front of you constantly being yanked away. If you're diligent and have some luck, you might be able to build up a downpayment despite the rise in rent cost (we were graciously offered only a $200 rent increase on account of great history, comparable houses in our area are going for 1700+ and they are not new houses. 3/2 1250sqft) Maybe you'll even scrape together enough for closing costs and fees!

Oh right, you also have to compete with out of state cash buyers in a very limited market of overpriced homes.

Pulling yourself up by your bootstraps, working hard, and budgeting doesnt mean anything anymore, for the time being at least.

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Yeah it's even worse now too because the stock market is awful. We got a bunch of help on our down payment from reasonable investing before we bought in 2021, but the markets been awful since a little before we bought.

I honestly don't know how some are surviving. 18 eggs is now over $7; it's absolutely insane.

I bought 18 eggs in New Mexico for $12.99

Red Pear BCS Luke said:

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Then I read an article today talking about the average car purchase price is $50K and average monthly payment is over $1000 a month.

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Tell me about it. My wife mentioned to me just last week that it had been 'a while' since she last had a new car.

Knowing the current market, I groaned under my breath.

It won't help for me to mention that I've never had a new car in my life, but then, that's by choice.

I imagine she'll beat the drum until I break. Rinse and repeat.

It seems that a man makes decisions when he's young and naive and he ends up paying for them the rest of his natural life.

Tell her you've been doing some research and you'll buy her a Buick since they have the highest inventory by far and they are makin deals. You'll either not hear about it again or get out about as cheap as you can.

dudeabides said:

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Live Video Feed from Ribeye's:

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I'd say Al's my hero but I honestly feel Jefferson D'Arcy had the better gig!

Quote:

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A lazy, narcissistic "pretty boy" who wants to skate through life on his good looks alone, Jefferson will do just about anything to avoid having a job, including putting up with his demanding (though affluent) wife Marcy.

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River Bass said:

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We just bought because it's the first time in a couple years that you could actually look at homes and negotiate. We got our new home at 6% below lender appraisal.

We had been in our current home long enough to experience significant appreciation and this equity increased our buying power.
I'll refinance if / when rates come down.

Increased wages are going to help some home buyers keep up. New positions at my company are commanding double what they were 5 years ago. I'm baffled at todays salaries for young professionals.

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You hiring?

K_P said:

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How much demand in the BCS area is folks who work from home most days, but need to go into Houston or the Woodlands 1-2x/wk? I'm sure it's a lot.

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This is me, Energy Corridor twice a week on average. Company is trying to get me to move closer to Houston, which I would be ok with if not for the current housing market. Not really eager to trade my 2.75% for 6%+

I am getting ready to sell my 2020 Townhouse in Maryland in March

my thought is to sell now before the market completely drops out.. then buy in Florida in late fall 2023 when I am back in the USA from working overseas

of course, it could be that even with small supply I still can't make much when selling now this spring- so then I would have to rent it out.

not great but could work.

It's tough for sure. I am one of those looking to buy first time and honestly, on paper, it would be damn stupid of me to do so. All of those sage rules of finances and homes are pretty much out the door at the moment. But it is either that or be stuck in yet another year of renting some sheety apartment. It has its place of course and for short term, it is fine. But I am transitioning off of a gypsy lifestyle of contract working and chose pretty much the worst time to do so it appears like in terms of owning a home. I am just so damn tired of burning cash on rent for close to 20 years.

Housing prices are starting to come down slowly though. It is no longer impossible to find sub $200 SF housing in my area now. The problem is that people selling right now missed the peak and I know some are mad about it and just taking their houses off the market. Which I get. I am the other side of that coin. So inventories are pretty low. And some are sitting for months with zero budge in pricing. Things will equal out of course but we are in that weird transition phase I think. It is no longer a sellers market for most areas I believe, but it is also not a buyers market yet either. Not an overnight swap from my understanding and perceptions