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Dumbfounded (housing cost)

9,622 Views | 61 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by South Platte
agracer
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River Bass said:

We just bought because it's the first time in a couple years that you could actually look at homes and negotiate. We got our new home at 6% below lender appraisal.

We had been in our current home long enough to experience significant appreciation and this equity increased our buying power.
I'll refinance if / when rates come down.

Increased wages are going to help some home buyers keep up. New positions at my company are commanding double what they were 5 years ago. I'm baffled at todays salaries for young professionals.
My son keeps complaining about the same issues as the OP, but the math is not that different when my wife and I bought our first home in 1994.

We paid 7.5% interest and combined made less money than he does 2-years out of college.

Until the recent rate increase, he could have afforded a $300k home at 3% with 10% down. The payment relative to income was a little higher than when we bought in 1994, but not killer. The rate increases have for sure made it harder.
jja79
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The rates today have been the norm for most of the past 50 years and even low for some periods. This past 12-15 years has been the exception. People can buy homes but they may have to adjust to the home they can afford and quit looking at the home they want. Another alternative is for young, entry level buyers to stop buying 3,5,7 or even 10 year houses with the highest rates in the market - the 30 year fixed.
Diggity
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the main issue is affordability. "Starter" homes that used to be in the 200K's are in the mid 300's or 400's.

Housing costs have outpaced inflation by a steady clip.



mwp02ag
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That's if you trust the CPI. I suspect your graph says more about CPI than housing and that it's much more probable that inflation continues to rise. What's more likely, that CPI is a lie or housing is going to correct to CPI?
Diggity
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I don't think there's any doubt that housing costs are growing faster than wages in any case. That's the point I'm making.

mwp02ag
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Agreed.
pocketrockets06
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The chart you posted (and most of the reactions on this thread) are people experiencing the same pricing shocks for similar reasons that the rest of the country already is experiencing. When you start running out of cheap land, the house price goes up. California just ran out of land faster than Houston so they saw the price increases first. It's not some magical California Dems vs Texas Repubs thing.

I mentioned it another thread but we need to be actively aiming for house price appreciation to match CPI with our policies. Anything above that starts pricing out new families and homebuyers. The way you get there is you relax or eliminate single family zoning rules, allow higher density construction (especially near transit hubs), eliminate or reduce environmental permitting, etc.

This also means that people need to expect that if they buy a home for $200K and sell 5 years later, it should be for $220, not $300. Too many people think 7--10% appreciation is normal and bank on it as a source of wealth.
Diggity
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pocketrockets06 said:

The chart you posted (and most of the reactions on this thread) are people experiencing the same pricing shocks for similar reasons that the rest of the country already is experiencing. When you start running out of cheap land, the house price goes up. California just ran out of land faster than Houston so they saw the price increases first. It's not some magical California Dems vs Texas Repubs thing.

I mentioned it another thread but we need to be actively aiming for house price appreciation to match CPI with our policies. Anything above that starts pricing out new families and homebuyers. The way you get there is you relax or eliminate single family zoning rules, allow higher density construction (especially near transit hubs), eliminate or reduce environmental permitting, etc.

This also means that people need to expect that if they buy a home for $200K and sell 5 years later, it should be for $220, not $300. Too many people think 7--10% appreciation is normal and bank on it as a source of wealth.
well, that's not totally true. The entitlements/regulations needed to build in many CA cities can add a good 50-100% to building costs, outside of land value.

Texas still has lots of relatively "cheap" land, but the infrastructure/building costs have gone bonkers over the past few years.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Houses in Pebble Creek in College Station are going for $340/sqft. That is crazy.
AggieKatie2
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

Houses in Pebble Creek in College Station are going for $340/sqft. That is crazy.


There's a 7000 sqft house on Riverstone in Bryan listed for $530/sqft.
BenFiasco14
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mwp02ag said:

It's more fuel for my hypothesis that buying work force housing, even at higher cost today, will make sense over the next 10 years.


You're advocating for company towns as the answer?
CNN is an enemy of the state and should be treated as such.
Chipotlemonger
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I believe that inventory since 1994 has been an issue, there aren't many options out there for starters now. I think this was discussed at length recently on another thread on this same board.
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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https://www.instagram.com/reel/CiWTJaWpbOh/?igshid=Zjc2ZTc4Nzk=

It's cool just not $4mm cool. Unless she came with it
Red Pear Luke
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PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CiWTJaWpbOh/?igshid=Zjc2ZTc4Nzk=

It's cool just not $4mm cool. Unless she came with it
Wait till you see the workout room that's decked out in all pink....

https://photos.zillowstatic.com/fp/e0d1d24fc60156060dcfd06a4048631d-uncropped_scaled_within_1536_1152.webp
Sea Speed
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PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CiWTJaWpbOh/?igshid=Zjc2ZTc4Nzk=

It's cool just not $4mm cool. Unless she came with it


I hope you're not talking about the blonde. Wooof
mwp02ag
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BenFiasco14 said:

mwp02ag said:

It's more fuel for my hypothesis that buying work force housing, even at higher cost today, will make sense over the next 10 years.


You're advocating for company towns as the answer?


Not at all. I mean that buying a 3/2 single story home or duplex/triplex, in a blue collar neighborhood as a rental property is about as safe a bet as you can make in this environment.
Diggity
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mwp02ag said:

BenFiasco14 said:

mwp02ag said:

It's more fuel for my hypothesis that buying work force housing, even at higher cost today, will make sense over the next 10 years.


You're advocating for company towns as the answer?


Not at all. I mean that buying a 3/2 single story home or duplex/triplex, in a blue collar neighborhood as a rental property is about as safe a bet as you can make in this environment.
yep...it's the same formula that's been espoused forever but applies now even more so.

my only (somewhat cynical) worry in the future - as more and more people can't afford "market rent", the powers that be might start to put some caps on what landlords can charge.

You saw some of this during Covid, where they basically made it illegal to evict tenants for a substantial period of time, under the auspices that they "couldn't work" in one of the best job markets in history.

Seeing some of elimination of landlord rights discussed in Europe now as well.

I wouldn't say it's super likely but I would quantify it as a risk.
mwp02ag
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Ah yes, I forgot to add the "in landlord friendly states" caveat. I totally agree property rights are under attack, even here in Texas in major metros like SA where they adopted the exact same renters rights document that Seattle uses. I mean word for word. They say it's "just a guide and not enforceable" but what government stops there?

Also, how many of us guessed the FED would take the rate hike action they did on their radar before 2022? How many deals were unwritten with rent growth that is not going to happen now? How are you guys underwriting rents for new deals going forward?
MAS444
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So maybe this is question for a seperate thread...but where are good areas in Houston to buy decent 3/2s for rentals.
Sea Speed
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South shore league city.
Diggity
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you'll want to focus on suburban areas with good schools. If you can find something built in the past 20 years, all the better.

Just know that everyone else is chasing the same thing.
MAS444
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Seriously? That may be too rich for my slumlord blood. I'm thinking cheaper than where you guys previously bought (if I remember correctly).
Sea Speed
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We have 2 homes in South shore. If we werent looking for land id be on number 3 this year. Shoot me a text or PM and I will send you a couple hood names. There's something for every budget in the area.
MAS444
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Sent you a PM
mwp02ag
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I have a nice long list of absentee owner homes in San Antonio I'm going to start cold calling tomorrow morning. Should be fun!
mwp02ag
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Hey oh! I've made about 25 calls off an absentee owner list and have three motivated sellers I am working on seller financing offers with. Long way to go yet but I am cautiously optimistic.
South Platte
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MAS444 said:

So maybe this is question for a seperate thread...but where are good areas in Houston to buy decent 3/2s for rentals.
I was chewing on the same concept. It might warrant a separate thread. I'm in NE Houston, so looking for a 3/2 or 4/2.5 close by. I'm having a little trouble finding monthly rental figures. I see a few homes for rent that look decent, asking ~ $2,000 - $2,200/month for rent and have been available for over a month. That's concerning.
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