I like the direct seemingly unbiased take from this guy. I wish his data didn't come with Redfin logos on it but the data didn't seem loaded. I feel like there's always a dozen new YouTube takes saying the sky is falling. My wife is an EXP realtor in Houston. She agrees with his takes. I'm very interested in yalls takes, without this becoming a politics board post.

We are...12yr homeowners, 2yr Airbnb Superhosts (1 location), with leverage to purchase 7-12more homes in the next 24mo( cash or not, think small coastal rentals) - Skeptical of the market. 2008 was painful for my family.

I'm not really sure I follow his logic.

• Inventory really tight right now due to reduced selling activity
• Buying power lower due to high rates and low inventory
• investors have been purchasing homes at a higher % than normal over past several years
• investor activity slowing down
• large spike in unemployment rate (no explanation as to why here)
• housing market crashes?

I would argue that reduced investor activity is a good thing and could help get home back into more "affordable" territory. I disagree that this will result in a "crash", but rather get things back more towards a normal equilibrium.

If his argument is that it might be prudent to wait for a bit, I could see that, but I don't know what major forces are going to change in the next 6-9 months that will cause everything to go in the toilet.

As an aside, in Houston at least, the luxury market has been on fire, due to low inventory. I'm not up to date on the rest of the country, but that definitely conflicts with his general theme

and speaking of Redfin

Homes Are Selling Near Highs as Supply Falls to New Low, Redfin says

A record low number of homes for sale, combined with an uptick in homebuyer demand propped up housing prices in June, even as elevated mortgage rates kept many buyers on the sidelines, Redfin says. The median…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) July 17, 2023

Top reply is kind of my fear/pain point when thinking about being too early on multiple property acquisitions

"When rates fall"

Everybody is in a rush to liquidate their home

— NickGweezy.GPT (@nxgweezy) July 17, 2023

would like to see that source data...not what we're seeing in Houston.

why would people be in a rush to liquidate if/when rates fall?

they might be interested in looking at "move up" housing, but rational seller's aren't going to take a bath on their homes just because rates are down a bit. You have to look at the whole picture.

Diggity said:

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would like to see that source data...not what we're seeing in Houston.

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https://texags.com/forums/59/topics/3387395

Diggity said:

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would like to see that source data...not what we're seeing in Houston.

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Also
https://texags.com/forums/59/topics/3382329

Hill Country area is about the only spot where you're consistently seeing those kinds of drops.

Definitely needed to happen there.

Diggity said:

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Hill Country area is about the only spot where you're consistently seeing those kinds of drops.

Definitely needed to happen there.

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Dallas and surrounding showing 5-10 percent decrease.

I'm not seeing that and neither is the market. June had to breathe because April and May were so crazy but I think the report I saw said like 3 or 4 year over year. July kicked right back up and August will be smoking. The biggest issue we are facing in NTX is finding places to put people. I think if we had a decent supply, it would be cooking.
April and my biggest challenge to adding listings is convincing folks that we can find somewhere to go.

Premium said:

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Diggity said:

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Hill Country area is about the only spot where you're consistently seeing those kinds of drops.

Definitely needed to happen there.

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Dallas and surrounding showing 5-10 percent decrease.

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Make sure the data & analysis you read are segmented Month by Month, and the property types are truly comparable with respect to a certain range of age/size/quality etc. Do not ever trust some generic analysis a realtor pulled off the MLS which auto generated a 'chart' for them.

Allot of analysis out there just collects all single family residences on less than an acre regardless of size, age/year built, location, and quality. It's even worse when they start lumping in acreage with subacreage properties in the data. The results are not credible.

Just to elaborate a bit more: analysis generated from bulk MLS data are garbage. Realtors will say homes have 6 car garages when it has a 2 car/tandem for a total of 4 parking spaces - sizes, year built etc. Are often wrong, and I could spend half my life just cleaning MLS datasets.

I'm about to walk into a home that is selling in the lower 7 fig range, probability distribution indicates it is -0.03 standard deviations from the mean, with respect to size, so it's total ft^2 are 'average'. The Median sale price for homes with total ft^2 +/- 1kft^2 of this home is 1MM. This home is listed significantly higher. Note that square footage correlates the strongest with value for subacreage properties...so this home better have something that similar sized & similar age homes that have sold in the area don't have...it doesn't. This realtor is about to get a very rude wakeup call, and pricing history shows it has already undergone a 100k reduction.

Do-not-trust-realtors, unless you truly know they are competent individuals.

I don't even think you could make generic TX market comments. Right now Austin, Dallas, Houston, the hill country, and B/CS are all doing their own thing.