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October Housing Data Across Texas

3,400 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by evan_aggie
Red Pear Realty
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HOUSTON

Quote:

The Houston real estate market continues to be hamstrung by the highest mortgage rates in two decades as consumers take most of their business to the rental sector. October marked the 19th straight month of negative home sales, however there are healthy indicators layered throughout the latest statistics as the final quarter of 2023 began.

"The Houston real estate market had an encore performance of slower home sales and solid rental activity in October and we can probably expect those trends to prevail for the rest of the year," said HAR Chair Cathy Treviño with LPT, Realty. "Housing inventory has grown steadily in recent months and pricing has moderated, so any notable decline in mortgage rates will likely spark renewed interest in homebuying, but only the Fed can control whether that happens."


THE FACTS
  • Inventory jumped from 2.6 months in October to 2.8 months in this latest release.
  • Total sales is continuing to fall and total active listings is continuing to climb.
  • Average pricing is up 0.4% YOY and median pricing is down 0.9% YOY.
  • The 10 year US treasury fell vs. last month (as high as 5.0%) to about 4.45% today.
  • CPI numbers released today came in better than expectations: 3.2% YOY and flat (0.0%) from October.



https://www.har.com/content/department/mls?y=2023&m=11

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm



MY TAKE
  • October and November so far have been slow months. Slower than the average, in my opinion. Is the market starting to break toward buyers?
  • I don't think so, at least not now. With interest rates in the high 7% range, how many people are going to remain in the market looking for homes? In a weird way, it seems where we are in this weird quagmire where everyone loses.
  • I would expect inventory to continue to climb in the next month or so.
  • See the quote above in bold. You know it's bad when the HAR Chair is saying this openly.
  • Markets are up big today on good CPI news. I still hope this is the end of inflation, but I don't think it is.


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Red Pear Luke
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Bryan / College Station Area Statistics:


  • Bryan/College Station's Days on Market has increased 18 days from 91 in September to 109 days for October.
  • Inventory has increased from 2.4 months in October 2022 to 3.6 months (up from 3.5 in September of 2023).
  • Active Listings up 26.5% compared to this time last year
  • Median Prices have now decreased from $318K to $305K, and that $305K is flat from October 2022.
  • Median Income for B-CS is $80,400 per Household (Link to Lookup Map/)


My Take and Transactions:

  • For both sellers and buyers - getting a house under contract and closed is turning into an exotic dance and courting procedure. You never can be sure what to expect from the other party.
  • Price drops are happening across the board and they can bring sudden demand with a couple of offers OR totally fall flat and end up having to eventually price drop again.
  • I will be curious to see if the recent drop in rates will push demand to rise but my expectation is it still won't be much of a catalyst until we get into 2024.

Bryan/College Station:



Bryan:



College Station:



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Red Pear Felipe
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Austin-Round Rock

Central Texas Housing Report

Quote:

"An increase in sales and a jump in pending sales indicates buyers continue to enter the market and are finding more bargaining power throughout the transaction," Ashley Jackson, 2023 ABoR president, said. "The market is still normalizing, and as we look to the end of the year, it's important to remember that working with a REALTOR who can share their expertise and help buyers and sellers alike, is the surest path to success in this market."

Clare Losey, Ph.D., housing economist for ABoR, noted that interest rates from late summer did not prevent buyers from showing a willingness to enter the market in October.

"Despite higher mortgage rates this summer and fall, closed sales across the MSA rose 4.1% year over year in October to 2,337 sales. With the close to original list price ratio hitting 93.1% in October, it is also a reminder that buyers have more negotiating power than at virtually any point since March 2020."


Austin Facts
  • Median sales price continues to trend downward helping many first-time home buyers in the process. Prices are down to $435,000 which is a 7% decrease YOY.
  • Closed sales are up 4% YOY which is very good indicator of the strong Austin housing market. Even with higher interest rates, houses are still be sold.
  • Housing inventory is up to 3.9 months of inventory. It's still considered a seller's market, but as you read above, buyers have more negotiating power since 2020.
  • I'm currently helping some clients purchase a new build in the Del Valle area. They were able to get their rate down to 5.75% using the builder's flex cash and they'll also earn about $4,200 using our Red pear Realty rebate.


Austin-Round Rock


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County


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Red Pear Medina
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Interesting Detailed Data of the MSA:



San Antonio:



New Braunfels:


Gonzales


Fair Oaks Ranch:


Spring Branch:
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Red Pear Luke
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Bryan/College Station Stats are up!
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Red Pear Felipe
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Austin Rental Market
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evan_aggie
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I'd be curious to know how the average sale price vs median is impacted. A lot of articles showing minimal decline in median sales price, but in my neck of the woods every 3/2 is $1M+ and I can see -15-20% declines for houses at the $1.5-1.8M from highs.

Of course the words being used is "stabilize" or "normalize". I remember every realtor 18+ months ago calling the ATH the "new normal".

I appreciate the data you share here!



CS78
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Interesting that it's that flat with sales being what they are. Has population influx stalled?
Red Pear Felipe
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Austin continues to be one of the fastest growing cities in Texas with approximately 184 individuals moving her daily. Closed sales were up 4% YOY so people are still buying homes with higher interest rates. I believe most of these sales are coming from people actually having to buy due to relocation. There's no incentive for me to buy a newer home unless I had the cash to do it. I'm not losing my 2.9% rate.
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TxAG-010
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I always enjoy reading your reports, very insightful. I know it may be out of your area of operation but can you pull similar data for Midland/Odessa?
It would be interesting to compare it to other markets across the state….because it's the Wild West out here! Ha
Red Pear Realty
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Yes! We will get those posted for you. We actually have a residential development lot listed in Midland right now:

7 Lafayette Pl, Midland
$113,900

https://apps.realtor.com/mUAZ/ettizytw
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TxAG-010
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Awesome!

Good luck with the lot/development. I would bet it gets some traction and won't sit long.
Red Pear Medina
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evan_aggie
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https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2023/11/30/austin-home-sellers-losing-money-profit-loss

Quote:

State of play: Nearly 5% of Austin metro homes sold at a loss from August to October up from 0.75% a year ago.
  • The median loss was around $35,000, per Redfin data.
What's happening: Austin's housing market is still normalizing after 2020's hot housing market, when buyers snapped up homes within weeks sometimes for hundreds of thousands of dollars over the asking price.
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