Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos

November 2024 Central Texas Housing Report

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Clare Knapp, Ph.D., housing economist for Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of REALTORS, noted that November's data reflects continued stability in Austin's housing market.

"November's sales increase is largely tied to the activity we saw in September and October, when mortgage rates inched down to 6.08% and prospective buyers felt encouraged to move towards buying a home. What's really driving behavior in the market is where mortgage rates land. Moving forward, despite higher mortgage rates, sales activity should remain relatively consistent year-over-year."

Kent Redding, 2024 Unlock MLS and ABoR president, highlighted the current momentum in the market, emphasizing both the opportunities for buyers and sellers as the market continues to stabilize heading into the new year.
"With solid pending sales activity and steady inventory levels, Austin's housing market is positioned for a steady close to the year. Buyers who locked in lower rates earlier this fall are now finalizing purchases, while sellers are finding promising opportunities as the market stabilizes with the guidance of REALTORS. Whether you're ready to build equity through homeownership or have your sights set on a specific neighborhood, now is the time to take action and make your move."

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This year has been a remarkable one for my clients! Together, we saved an impressive $80,806 through reduced listing fees and earned buyer rebates. In addition, as part of my #FelipeGivesBack campaign, I donated over $1,750 on behalf of my clients to incredible organizations such as Foster Village, PAWS of Central Texas, and The Dripping Springs Education Fund.

Looking ahead, I currently have one deal in escrow set to close on January 7th. My clients secured this property for nearly $7,000 below the list price, showcasing the opportunities still available in this shifting market. For buyers, 2023 presented unique savings opportunities, particularly for those leveraging the market conditions caused by sellers who purchased at peak prices in 2022. I've had two standout deals this year where my clients achieved significant savings due to motivated sellers.


In terms of the Greater Austin real estate market, here's an overview of the latest trends:

• Median Sales Prices: Increased by 2.4% year-over-year (YOY) to $435,000, marking the first rise in prices this year despite high mortgage rates.
• Closed Sales: Dropped 4.6% YOY to 2,130.
• Active Listings: Increased by 5.2% YOY to 10,845.
• Pending Sales: Rose 16.7% YOY to 2,255.
• Months of Inventory: Currently at 4.8 months, down 0.3 months from last month but up 1.1 months YOY, reflecting a more balanced market.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos


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HOUSTON

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While the temperatures cooled in November, the Houston housing market remained temperate, with homebuyers seemingly undeterred by rising mortgage rates. Home sales surpassed 2023 levels for the third consecutive month, while inventory continued to expand. - HAR President

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THE FACTS

• Months inventory is continuing to hang out at 4.4 months (up 0.9 months YOY, but flat the last two months at least). I know I sound like a broken record, but usually, inventory falls from March to September, and then rises from October to February with a reprieve in December. That hasn't been happening the last two months, and this could mean that inventory will start to decline this Spring if something doesn't interject in the meanwhile.
• Mean and Median prices are up 4.1% and 1.5%, respectively, YOY.
• Total Property Sales (3.3%), Pending Sales (22.2%) and Dollar Volume (11.1%) were all up YOY.
• The Fed dropped its target rate yesterday by 25 bps, but the real news (IMO) was that it decreased its predicted rate decreases in 2025 from 100 bps to 50 bps.
• The 10 year Treasury yield has jumped roughly 20 bps from the start of the Fed meeting yesterday. This is a great reminder that the Fed does not control interest rates on mortgages, just the overnight window for banks who borrow from it.
• The market is not betting on another Fed rate cut until May of 2025 (based on a majority of positions being placed on rates being at least 25 bps lower at that meeting).

MY TAKE

• This last month was BUSY for me with brokerage activities, and it seems to be culminating with Houston traffic going berserk in the last week or so. People are still looking to buy/sell in this market, despite rising interest rates and some uncertainty in the overall US economy.
• I placed several offers on homes in the last months for buyer clients who did not get their offers accepted in multiple offer situations, including one last week that was $20,000 over asking price. I also placed cash offers on three different lots for development in Oak Forest last month (after not seeing anything good for sale for months) and didn't get a single one. Not a fun feeling at all. I've got several clients (including myself) who want to buy right now, but feel that the offerings available are not attractive based on pricing. An example would be that a home that needs $50,000 to $100,000 worth of work to comp appropriately should not sell (be listed) for the same price as a similar home next door that has been updated. But that is what's out there.
• I did close a deal recently where I thought the seller had underpriced the home and we were getting a great deal, and couldn't figure out why anyone hadn't taken it down yet. Then I realized that the seller was offering less than a 3% commission, and can only reason that that was the reason for that! I hate overblown commissions as much as anyone else, but you've got to play the game!
• We are framed up on a couple of our Earl Rudder Way homes and just poured our slabs for our six pack on Lou Ellen Ln in Oak Forest this week. Hoping to deliver both projects by late spring/early summer 2025.
• Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!

https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2134
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-121924/card/why-the-2-year-treasury-yield-is-falling-but-the-10-year-is-rising-7RqLlVVOiH92w9TJdHI8

I assume with the 10 year at 4.60% today that's a drag on the market.