Terk said:
Isn't supply not keeping up with demand a shortage? It's excess demand based on whatever you want to call it, but it's still a shortage.
Say that on average, people fill up once a week when they get to empty, which means that 14% of total tank capacity is filled on any given day.
Now say that for no good reason, everyone fills up in one day. On average they were half full, which means that 50% of total tank capacity is filled on that day. They aren't necessarily using more gasoline (yet), they are just buying it on a different day.
The fuel distribution industry is set up to fulfill 14% per day. The rate the terminals can fill trucks, the pipeline capacity to the terminals, and the number of trucks and truck drivers.
So on this unusual day, volume more than triples. There's some slack in the system, but it's designed to handle things like holiday weekends... for example, labor day weekend. Which means that not only is everyone pulling their normal demand forward, they also have more demand from the holiday weekend, AND they are filling extra containers, AND they are burning a bunch more gasoline driving around town looking for gas and idling in long lines.
The gasoline exists, and in fact inventory levels have been high for years. The problem is purely one of a self-fulfilling prophecy temporarily outstripping the ability to move that gasoline from storage to gas stations.
So yeah, you could say that there's a shortage, but the shortage only exists because people are behaving abnormally in reaction to something that wouldn't be a problem if they went about their normal routines.