Yeah sorry I was drunk posting that
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1) pay close attention to the betas. Don't be tempted to invest in straight 2+
A "beta" is an indexed risk profile against the S&P 500. The S&P has a risk of "1". That means that when the S&P goes up 1%, the S&P goes up 1%, and vice versa. Every fund/stock has a beta (derived by running a regression of it's returns vs. the S&P 500). A stock with a beta of 2.0, for example, would be considered twice as risky as the S&P. When the market goes up 1, this stock can be expected to go up 2. When the market goes down 1, this stock can be expected to go down 2. High-beta stocks are usually things like emerging technology, investment banks, etc. Low-beta stocks, like Walmart, don't move as rapidly up or down because they are not as subjected to financial winds. No matter how crappy the economy is, people still shop at Walmart. You can rake money in a bull market with 2.0s and higher, but you should balance your portfolio with some low-beta stocks that can buffer any sharp declines.
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2) Cash matters more than NI at filing time
Analysts and investors get wrapped around the axles at reporting (10K) time about Net Income. For high performing stocks, Cash Flow from Operations and Cash Available is more often more important, because investors understand that accountants can make Net Income appear or disappear through changing investments, delaying capital expenditures, etc
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3) hedge your high performers with some secondary goods (beer, walmart)
See #1. When the economy tanks, people still shop at Walmart and buy more beer.
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4) don't bet naked
This is mostly for gamblers. It is extremely risky to make a 6-month bet on a stock/fund you don't own. If you're wrong, you'll not only lose what you thought you were going to make, you'll also have to buy the asset you wanted to make a profit on in the first place. Avoid naked (I don't have the asset right now) bets
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5) if you bet, make a collar spread
If you like betting, you can create a "collar" that provides downside insurance if you bet wrong. The initial outlay will lower your returns, but it prevents catastrophic loss.
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6) EPS is the trump multiple
In the "multiples" on the reports, Earnings Per Share is the one key statistic you should look at if you don't have time to look at anything else. It will tell you how the company is performing at its key job - earning money - per stock outstanding. The higher it is earning per share outstanding the better.
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7) take dividend stocks, even though it may be leveraged or diluted
Dividends paid out reduce the value of the stock, but they provide cash flow to the shareholder. Many companies that pay regular dividends will actually take on debt (leverage) to meet dividend expectations if their earnings/cash have fallen short. While this also reduces the value of the share, it is still cash in your pocket. Boeing, for example, took on a lot of debt a few years ago to make its quarterly dividend payment. Even though it reduces book value, it provides marekt value because the shareholders know the company is looking out for them.
[This message has been edited by Tango Mike (edited 6/30/2014 2:29p).]