Will be interesting to see how much the bubble expands or shrinks as it gets closer to March. There's so much basketball to be played; when you think of "locks" and teams that should be in, there's a chance that some of those teams drop down a level or go up a level. This conference is so competitive and you can't have a night off even against winless SC.

It will be really interesting if the committee hard caps the league or if they rely on Kenpom/NET ratings to allow as many teams as the computers dictate.

If 11 is the record, is 14 too many SEC teams in the tournament and then how do you seed them so that they don't potentially play each other in the 2nd round?

I personally love it, I am really enjoying watching all the competitive and even the WTF games during this season.

I think vandy needs to get to 8 league wins to get in and Georgia has a tough road cause they can't seem to play on the road. I think it ends up being 11 easily but maybe I'm wrong on vandy and Georgia cause there's not a lot of teams in other conferences with bigger wins

For me I think 12. I think Texas, Oklahoma and Georgia get in.

Oklahoma put some mildly good wins into oak barrels in the fall and man did those things age nicely. They've got an undefeated non-con that suddenly looks a little better than it used to with Arizona, Louisville and Michigan all climbing into the top 30 of the NET and even their win over Georgia Tech looks better than we gave it credit for at the time. They just have to find their way to 7 conference wins, it doesn't matter how they get there.

Texas is probably fine after beating us and Missouri, but probably caught a bad break by having both Arkansas games on the back half of their league slate. Unlike Oklahoma, Texas does not have a single quad 1 non-con win to bank on. Still, they probably just need 4 more wins to feel good heading into the SEC Tournament and they'll likely find them.

College basketball is a funny sport. While Georgia fans were probably at brunch at 10 AM on November 24th trying to convince themselves there was anything worth talking about from the football game against UMASS the day before, the Bulldogs basketball team took down St. John's in a converted ballroom in the Bahamas. A game that is now a life raft the Bulldog's resume is clinging to. They've already faced one SEC gauntlet and failed it, even losing the one "easy" game in the stretch by losing to Arkansas. And they've got another one coming. I think they find a way to get 4 wins and upset either Missouri or Florida at home and sneak in.

I don't think Arkansas is going to make it, but teams need to beware the Razorbacks. If they can get hot, they do have a nice combination of relatively winnable games (Home games against Texas, Vandy and Missouri) and chances to grab big resume boosters. Again, I don't think they're going to get there, but I also think they have the potential to ruin some people's chances. Especially Texas.

And I just don't see the wins for Vandy. They have to have the hardest remaining schedule in college basketball.

FWIW Lunardi predicts 13 SEC teams in. Seed lines have been pretty consistent with NET at least to the late 20s from what I recall. And now we are seeing polling mostly reflect that, too.

Disclaimer: I don't think NET itself perfect, but the process that uses NET to place in quads is rational. That leaves less wiggle room for the committee until you hit true bubble teams. But let's just say Texas is in unless the committee can't shoehorn them in.

based on how amazing the sec is this year it might be easier to discuss the teams that won't get in.

i don't think south carolina, lsu, or arky will get in.

i think one of georgia or ou will get in

i think both texas and vandy will make it.

so i see the sec getting 12 teams.

They're not going to cap the teams. I think the wildcard is going to be what did the teams do (or even attempt to do) in non-con if they're close to the cut line.

Texas and Vandy would be in trouble if they end up close to the cut line and the committee starts taking a harder look at what they did out of conference. (They did nothing.)

Of the two Texas draws eyeballs so all of the committees over the years shoehorned them in. The tournament funds the NCAA itself after all…

greg.w.h said:

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FWIW Lunardi predicts 13 SEC teams in. Seed lines have been pretty consistent with NET at least to the late 20s from what I recall. And now we are seeing polling mostly reflect that, too.

Disclaimer: I don't think NET itself perfect, but the process that uses NET to place in quads is rational. That leaves less wiggle room for the committee until you hit true bubble teams. But let's just say Texas is in unless the committee can't shoehorn them in.

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I've always been unclear on what exactly the Lunardi updates are - his prediction of who will actually be in the tournament, or who would be in if the teams were selected today. I think it's the latter, so I'm not sure if his current bracket is a true "prediction."

I don't see how Vandy gets in. They did beat Kentucky and Tennessee at home, so they'll have to prove they can win on the road. That being said, what team do you have them beating on the road: @Fla, @Tenn, @Kentucky, @Mizz or even @Reed? Their best win opportunity is @Georgia, but that's not a gimme by any measure.

Their best finish in my mind is about 8-10/7-11, but their non-con is trash so I don't see them going to the tournament unless they start beating top 10 teams on the road.

I think it's a mix. Like I think he's predicting where things are going to land, but he's not getting granular with what team's future schedules look like.

Lunardi has Texas up to the 9 seed. 5 games left at home, and a road sked of Arkansas, SC, Miss St., and Vandy.

Cautiously optimistic, although not as high on the Horns as Bubble Watch, which has them with a better chance of making the Dance than Mizzou, OU, Georgia, Miss St., Vandy, and Ole Miss based on the remaining games.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/43275822/bubble-watch-2025-mens-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-bracket-predictions
($)

Of the bubble teams, I think Texas, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma get in.

I don't buy Georgia's resume as much. Yes, they beat St John's which looks great now, but let's see how good that win is after SJ plays the top big East teams this month. Outside of them, they have no impressive wins away from home and not many more opportunities to get those wins. Non-conference is super important, but I think road/neutral wins are being emphasized a lot this year amongst bracketologists.

Vanderbilt has a similar problem, however I believe they have more opportunities down the stretch than Georgia has. That being said, I would be shocked if the Vandy @ Georgia game is essentially a play in game to end the regular season.

So I think 12 in total make the dance

So happy we took care of business non conference so we aren't a bubble team
Would be thrilled if we maintained a2 or 3 seed and edge KU out of the Wichita regional

Nobody is edging ku out of the Wichita regionalHTH

Beg to differ. Cougar High as a 1 seed is coming to Wichita. If A&M is a 2 or 3 and Ku is a 4 seed KU will be sent to Denver. NCAA tries to send the highest ranked teams to the closest regional. I think they would reward A&M over KU but we will see. I'll be at the Wichita regional so I want the Aggies here

Could also come down to whether Iowa State prefers to play in Wichita or Milwaukee. I think Milwaukee is probably technically closer.

bobinator said:

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Could also come down to whether Iowa State prefers to play in Wichita or Milwaukee. I think Milwaukee is probably technically closer.

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Milwaukee is about an hour closer. But flying who cares…

If Arkansas & Georgia both win here I will have 14 SEC teams in the field

— T3 Bracketology™️🏀 (@T3Bracketology) February 6, 2025

Not sure I'm buying the Hogs already being that close to the cut line. They have plenty of opportunities on their schedule, but the metrics, both resume and predictive, just aren't there yet if you ask me.

Topher17 said:

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Not sure I'm buying the Hogs already being that close to the cut line. They have plenty of opportunities on their schedule, but the metrics, both resume and predictive, just aren't there yet if you ask me.

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10 days ago, Arkansas was 12-8 (1-6) and on the precipice of being eliminated from at-large contention.

Two Quad 1A road wins later over Kentucky and Texas and the Hogs may have just entered the NCAA Tournament field in an otherwise weak bubble. Absolutely insane back to back… https://t.co/LTQXiZAg8z

— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) February 6, 2025

Because teams will beat each other down the stretch and the ncaa likes to reward conference champs I think the SEC gets
2-1's
1-2
2-3's
6 th place team ends up on the 4/5 line