Updated Saturday Morning
1 Seeds
1) Auburn (Lock) I thought coming into the home stretch that Auburn had such a dominant lead in the resume department that the only way they could lose it would be Duke winning out and Auburn losing 2. Well even after that has happened, just taking a fresh look at the numbers, I still think Auburn is the overall #1, although it is much closer than before and it would not shock me to see Duke #1 overall (especially given that Duke owns the H2H). Auburn is still a 100% lock as a 1 seed even after the 0-2 week. (Saturday SEC Semis Tennessee)
2) Duke (Lock) Number 1 in all the quality metrics but lack the elite wins to surpass Auburn for #1 overall. Locked into the 1 seed line and perhaps an outside shot at #1 overall. (Saturday ACC Final Louisville)
3) Houston (Lock) Locked in as a 1 seed, and locked in at #3 overall. (Saturday Big 12 Final Arizona)
4) Florida (Lock) Strong finish to the year #3 in all resume counts and #4 in all quality metrics. Limited damage in the non-conference so if they fall to a 2 seed, that's why. Sure would be fun if it came down to the matchup with Alabama on Saturday and that's what the committee went with. (Saturday SEC Semis Alabama)
2 Seeds
5) Alabama (Lock) Bama makes it interesting for the last 1 seed spot by winning at Auburn to get the best win of anyone all season. It feels strange that it wouldn't move them up a single spot and it feels downright absurd that a team with 11 Quad 1A wins would not be a 1 seed. No doubt it will be a heated debate Alabama vs. Florida for the last spot on the 1 line. It sure would be fun if it came down to Saturday night at the SEC Semis but I'm not sure I have that much faith in the committee. (Saturday SEC Semis Alabama)
6) Tennessee (Lock) Vols are truly deserving of a 1 seed also, having beaten both Florida and Alabama, but the profile from a numbers standpoint is clearly a step behind. Locked in as a 2 seed. (Saturday SEC Semis Auburn)
7) Michigan State (Lock) MSU is as locked into the 2 seed line regardless of the Big 10 tournament. Anything else would be truly shocking. (Saturday Big 10 Semis Wisconsin)
8) St. John's (Lock) I have had St. John's as the last 2 seed for going on close to 3 weeks now and they just keep winning to justify it. Won 8 in a row including beating Creighton, UConn and Marquette twice both away from home. They don't have the quantity of elite wins but 17-4 vs. Quad 1 +2 is better than anyone else below them. (Saturday BE Final Creighton)
3 Seeds
9) Texas Tech (Lock) Great quality metrics, better than St. Joeseph's . They can be elite when healthy. 9-4 vs. Quad 1 is eye opening. (Regular Season Over)
10) Kentucky (Lock) Elite resume numbers 8 quad 1A wins, 11 quad 1. #9 in WAB should keep them as a 3 seed with an outside chance at a 2. (Regular Season Over)
11) Texas A&M (Lock) A&M was pretty much locked into the 3 line before the SECT and I don't think Thursday changes that. 16 quad 1 and quad 2 wins . 5 quad 1A wins, top 10 in the resume ranks, all the numbers indicate they are still a step ahead of the Big 10 teams but with Maryland and Wisconsin still alive in the Big 10 tournament, its possible to get passed depending on how much the committee considers wins over the weekend. 2 seed feels like an extreme long shot the way St. John's has taken command, wouldn't be entirely out of the question but probably >1% chance. 80% 3 seed, 19% 4 seed. Would go back up to over 90% chance for a 3 if Maryland and Wisconsin both lose. (Regular Season Over)
12) Iowa State (Lock) Only 2 quad 1A wins, and down to #25 in KPI so being a 4 seed would not be a shocker. They also have some injury concerns the committee may be factoring in. They will be watching the Big 10 tournament closely to protect their seed. (Regular Season Over)
4 Seeds
13) Maryland (Lock) Great quality numbers, big win at Michigan to close the year and then pounded Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament to cement their spot on the 4 line and represent the conference's best chance to get to a 3 seed (not counting MSU locked in as a 2. (Saturday Big 10 Semis Michigan)
14) Wisconsin (Lock) Not much separates the 2nd tier Big 10 teams. Wisconsin will have a great argument to be the 2nd highest Big 10 team with a win on Saturday. (Saturday Big 10 Semis Michigan State)
15) Oregon (Lock) Predictive metrics still stink but they have racked up some great wins this year 8 quad 1. #12 in WAB but quality #s in the mid 30s. 11th best pure resume numbers. (Regular Season Over)
16) Clemson (Lock) lack of high-end wins (4 quad 1) and a Q3 loss cap the ceiling for this profile. That quad 3 loss to Georgia Tech in 3OT is their only loss since January 7th before falling in the ACCT. That may speak more to how weak the ACC is than anything though. Losing to Louisville puts their spot as the last 4 a bit in jeopardy especially with Arizona coming on. (Regular Season Over)
5 Seeds
17) Arizona (Lock) Faded a bit down the stretch with 5 losses in the last 9 games but a strong performance in the Big 12 tournament. Might be too late to push them back up to a 4 depending on if they get full consideration from the committee for the wins. (Saturday Big Final Houston)
18) Purdue (Lock) Resume slipped a bit down the stretch, and looks a step behind the Wisconsin/ Maryland/Oregon trio. (Regular Season Over)
19) Ole Miss (Lock) 6 Quad1A wins, only Alabama, Auburn and UK have more. Only 1 loss outside of Quad 1. Quality numbers lack a bit but there is enough here to be a 6 seed or perhaps even a 5. (Regular Season Over)
20) Michigan (Lock) Lost the last 3 games of the regular season and the quality numbers took a huge tumble (now sitting at 30+ across the board) (Saturday Big 10 Semis Maryland)
6 Seeds
21) Louisville (Lock) I am a bit higher on Louisville than others and could easily see them as high as a 5 Their resume avg is 16.3 which is higher than Maryland, Arizona, and everyone below a 5. That is a bit surprising given they are 0-3 vs. Quad 1A. They do have 4 quad 1 wins and no bad losses though. Only 1 loss since December 14th. (Saturday ACC Final Duke)
22) BYU (Lock) The hottest team in college basketball, racking up elite wins lately after they had started the season 0-7 vs. quad 1. Made that 6-7 before losing in the Big 12 semis to Houston. (Regular Season Over)
23) UCLA (Lock) Impressive 5-3 vs. quad 1A and 9 Quad 1 wins. All of the resume numbers are in the 20s so there isn't too much of a compelling case to go higher than a 6. (Regular Season Over)
24) St. Mary's (Lock) A loss in the WCC final to Gonzaga wouldn't normally be one that would hurt but #19-30 is so close that I do think this allows a few profiles to slip ahead of them and drops the Gaels back to a 6 seed. (Regular Season Over)
7 Seeds
25) Illinois (Lock) Impressive close to the year blowing out Michigan in Ann Arbor and then beating Purdue. Illinois should be a 6 or 7. (Regular Season Over)
26) Kansas (Lock) 6 quad 1 wins, #18 in the quality metrics, 7 feels like an underseed but with the quality of the 5 and 6 lines I am not sure who you displace. (Regular Season Over)
27) Gonzaga (Lock) Gonzaga had 1 quad 1 win 2 weeks ago but pick up 3 quad 1 wins in their last 4 games to go along with elite (top 10) quality metrics. Their resume will still lag, and you have to wonder if they will get full credit for the tournament wins, but I also believe the committee doesn't want to make a 1 seed play Gonzaga in the 1st weekend. (Regular Season Over)
28) Memphis (Lock) Quality numbers (Avg. 49.7) and 3 quad 3 losses cap this profile as a 7 seed. (Saturday AAC Semis Tulane)
8 Seeds
29) Missouri (Lock) They probably wish they didn't play 8 quad 4 games (more than anyone else in the top 9 seed lines other than St. Mary's. That really hurts their overall profile. Under .500 vs quad 1+2 also pushes them down a bit. There is still so much good on this resume but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them land as low as an 8 seed given how strong the 6 and 7 lines are. (Regular Season Over)
30) Marquette (Lock) Lose the last 2 to UConn and St. John's to end the year. Should be a 7 or 8 on Selection Sunday. (Regular Season Over)
31) Mississippi State (Lock) It doesn't feel right to put Mississippi State this low but the 5, 6, 7 seed lines are just so competitive this year and this resume feels a touch behind right now. (Regular Season Over)
32) UConn (Lock) From a pure numbers standpoint this resume is no better than an 8 seed. Will they get any kind of bump for their recent tournament success? Several metrics in the mid 30s (Regular Season Over)
9 Seeds
33) Creighton (Lock) Solidly an 8 or 9 seed. 6-5 vs. quad 1 with no bad losses. A little too much of the resume is built on quad 3 and 4 success to be more than an 8. (Saturday Big East Final St. John's)
34) New Mexico (Lock) The win over UCLA and winning the MWC regular season will earn the Lobos a 9 seed. (Regular Season Over)
35) Georgia (Lock) 4 straight big wins to end the year including beating Florida sent the Bulldogs soaring up the seed lines. An early exit in the SECT shouldn't hurt too much. I am a bit higher on Uga but I think a lot of that is folks waking up to see how much the numbers improved over the last 2 weeks. (Regular Season over)
36) Baylor (Lock) Baylor should be breathing a bit easier after beating K State in the Big 12 tournament and probably has done enough to avoid Dayton. With a KPI of 48 though don't be surprised to see them seeded a bit lower though. (Regular Season Over)
10 Seeds
37) Utah State (Lock) - Quality metrics around 50 are a bit scary for an at large team but 9-7 vs. quad 1 + 2 and no bad losses means they are a lock and should be safe enough to avoid Dayton. (Regular Season Over)
38) Oklahoma (Lock) A roller coaster ride for Sooner fans after starting 13-0 non-conference, then 4-12 in conference, felt like they needed to win each of their last 2 conference games vs. Mizzou and Texas and they did just that. 7 Q1 wins with non-conference wins over Michigan, Arizona and Louisville feels like it will be enough. (Regular Season Over)
39) Drake (Missouri Valley Auto bid Secured) Drake avoids all drama associated with Selection Sunday and clinches the auto bid. Should be near the 10 line. 2-0 vs. Quad 1 beating Vanderbilt on a neutral court and winning at Kansas State. Only 3 losses all year and they are all quad 3 losses. Terrible quality numbers in the mid-60's (Regular Season Over)
40) West Virginia (Lock) 4 quad 1A wins, 6 quad 1, and no bad losses. Always a great recipe for avoiding Dayton. Quality metrics in the mid 40s will keep WVU in the 10 seed range even after the early exit to the Big 12 tournament. (Regular Season Over)
11 Seeds
41) Arkansas (Lock) Back-to-back big wins over Vanderbilt and Miss State to end the year moves the Hogs to lock status. 4 Quad 1A wins @Michigan, @Kentucky, @Texas and vs. Mizzou. (Regular Season Over)
42) Vanderbilt (Lock) The loss to Texas in the 1st round of the SECT means that Vandy may be an 11 seed and potentially could wind up in Dayton. Quality numbers into the 40s look very Daytonesque. I am still confident their 5 quad 1 wins and no bad losses have them dancing. (Regular Season Over)
Last 4 at large In
43) Indiana Fairly safe coming into tournament week but a first round exit leaves the Hoosiers vulnerable to bid thieves. (Regular Season Over)
44) San Diego State - Struggled in conference play including an early exit to the MWC tournament. If they ultimately get in it feels like they can thank that November win vs. Houston as the difference. (Regular Season Over)
45) UC San Diego Big West Placeholder Only played 5 games all year above quad 3, splitting with UC Irvine, winning at Utah State and losing at San Diego State and beating CSUN on the road. They also picked up 2 quad 3 losses along the way. They have continued to take care of business winning 13 straight to give themselves a legitimate at large chance. It remains to be seen if they could absorb a loss in the conference tournament…if it was in the finals to UC Irvine, it wouldn't do much damage. (Saturday Big West Final UC Irvine
12 seeds
46) Boise State 2 good wins in the non-conference over St. Mary's and Clemson. 2 quad 3 losses and only a 8-6 record vs. quad 1 and 2 means that they will have a nervous wait if they don't secure the auto bid. Bouncing both San Diego State and New Mexico from the MWC tournament is a nice feather in the cap will they get full credit for the wins? (Saturday MWC Final Colorado State)
47) VCU (Atlantic 10 placeholder) Rams fall 1 win short of being able to enter tournament week with wiggle room. Quality metrics in the high 20s but they don't have a quad 1 win so unless they get the auto bid it is going to be a nervous wait on Selection Sunday. If they don't win the A10 tournament I give them about a 50% chance to sneak in. (Saturday A10 Semis Loyola-Chicago)
48) Xavier Winners of 7 straight to end the year to be on the right side of the bubble going into the conference tournament but they went 0-1 there to leave them very vulnerable to other teams jumping over them and/or a bid thief or 2. (Regular Season Over)
Projecting 20 one bid leagues regardless of conference tournaments, for spots 49-68 (will be adjusted for stolen bids and some at large bids above this line will go away)
One bid leagues, with approximate seed range, will reorder exact seed line close to selection Sunday
49) Southland McNeese 12 seed
50) Big South High Point Dangerous 12/13 seed that I want no part of terrible matchup
51) Atlantic Sun Lipscomb 13 seed
52) Sun Belt Troy 14 seed
53) Coastal UNCW 14 seed
54) Horizon - Robert Morris 14/15 seed
55) Big Sky Montana 15 seed
56) Summit Omaha 15 seed
57) Southern Wofford 15/16 seed
58) OVC SIUE 16 seed (Possibly in Dayton)
59) Patriot League American 16 seed in Dayton
60) NEC St. Francis (PA) 16 seed in Dayton
61) America East Saturday Maine vs. Bryant 15/16 seed
62) Conference USA Saturday Liberty vs. Jax State seed (Liberty a possible 12)
63) MAAC Saturday 15/16 seed Mt. St Mary's vs. Iona
64) MAC Saturday 13/14 seed Akron vs. Miami (OH)
65) MEAC Saturday 16 seed, possible in Dayton SC State vs. Norfolk State
66) SWAC Saturday 16 seed in Dayton Alabama State vs. Jackson State
67) WAC Saturday 13/14 seed Utah Valley vs. Grand Canyon
68) Ivy Sunday likely 13 seed
Possible Bid Thieves (Teams that are not already in and would take away a spot from a team in now by getting an at large)
A year after 5 true bid thieves, it looks increasingly likely we have the opposite this year with as few as 1 if Memphis gets the auto bid.
American: Tulane, North Texas, UAB
Mountain West: Guaranteed bid thief - Boise State, Colorado State
A10 likely a 1 bid league no matter what, VCU has a slim shot to get an at large to make it a 2 bid league:
St. Joseph's, Loyola-Chicago, George Mason
Big West: UC Irvine (will likely be a 1 bid league anyways but this was always the exact scenario that would potentially put 2 BW teams in.
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69) Colorado State Colorado State has stayed on the very fringe of this bubble watch for a month now working their way up from #100 to just 1 spot out. The problem is that their side of the MWC bracket was the weak side so they didn't do much in terms of needle moving wins. And if they lose to Boise State in the final that means CSU would need to rely on being the 5th MWC team in, which seems like it is asking a lot with a 3 bid ACC. (Saturday MWC Final Boise State)
70) North Carolina What a way to lose and potentially end the season. Getting blown out by 24, come all the way back with a chance to win it at the line, clank one and a lane violation on the 2nd. Absolutely brutal. Fall to 1-12 vs. quad 1. They also have a quad 3 loss. I think ultimately UNC will be in the first 5 out Feels like they probably need to beat Duke to stay in. We will see how the rest of the bubble does the next 2 days to see how many spots are still available but looks like ultimately the Tar Heels will be just out. (Regular Season Over)
71) Texas Horns had the #285 non conference and took 2 losses. Then they went 6-12 in the SEC. With those 6 wins and the 2 in the tournament they did get to 7 quad 1 wins which is clearly the highlight of the resume. Minnesota also has 7 quad 1 wins and they won't make the NIT though. Ultimately this just feels like a resume that would typically be a first four out resume, but someone needs to play their way in to get those last spot or 2. (Regular Season Over)
72) Ohio State Lose the first game of the Big 10 Tournament to Iowa to fall to 17-15 on the season. I think had they won that game they would have snuck into Dayton but just 11-15 vs. quad 1 + 2 + 3, Even with 6 quad 1 wins typically you don't get an at large if you can't go .500 vs the top 3 quads. Buckeyes likely headed to the NIT. (Regular Season Over)
73) UC Irvine Well we made it to the exact scenario that could possibly lead to 2 Big West bids. The much more realistic path is UCI beating UCSD, as the UCI at large case will be thin - the quality metrics stink (94h in the BPI and 80 in Torvik) but the resume numbers will at least make it a conversation 39th in KPI. The win at UC San Diego counts as a quad 1A win. (Saturday Big West Final UCSD)
74) Wake Forest Faded badly down the stretch with the resume numbers falling to near 50 and the quality numbers near 70. The neutral court win over Michigan carried them for a bit but with Michigan also fading this looks like a NIT resume. (Regular Season Over)
Eliminated in the last week:
Nebraska (Sunday 3/9)
San Francisco (Monday 3/10)
Dayton (Friday 3/14)
1 Seeds
1) Auburn (Lock) I thought coming into the home stretch that Auburn had such a dominant lead in the resume department that the only way they could lose it would be Duke winning out and Auburn losing 2. Well even after that has happened, just taking a fresh look at the numbers, I still think Auburn is the overall #1, although it is much closer than before and it would not shock me to see Duke #1 overall (especially given that Duke owns the H2H). Auburn is still a 100% lock as a 1 seed even after the 0-2 week. (Saturday SEC Semis Tennessee)
2) Duke (Lock) Number 1 in all the quality metrics but lack the elite wins to surpass Auburn for #1 overall. Locked into the 1 seed line and perhaps an outside shot at #1 overall. (Saturday ACC Final Louisville)
3) Houston (Lock) Locked in as a 1 seed, and locked in at #3 overall. (Saturday Big 12 Final Arizona)
4) Florida (Lock) Strong finish to the year #3 in all resume counts and #4 in all quality metrics. Limited damage in the non-conference so if they fall to a 2 seed, that's why. Sure would be fun if it came down to the matchup with Alabama on Saturday and that's what the committee went with. (Saturday SEC Semis Alabama)
2 Seeds
5) Alabama (Lock) Bama makes it interesting for the last 1 seed spot by winning at Auburn to get the best win of anyone all season. It feels strange that it wouldn't move them up a single spot and it feels downright absurd that a team with 11 Quad 1A wins would not be a 1 seed. No doubt it will be a heated debate Alabama vs. Florida for the last spot on the 1 line. It sure would be fun if it came down to Saturday night at the SEC Semis but I'm not sure I have that much faith in the committee. (Saturday SEC Semis Alabama)
6) Tennessee (Lock) Vols are truly deserving of a 1 seed also, having beaten both Florida and Alabama, but the profile from a numbers standpoint is clearly a step behind. Locked in as a 2 seed. (Saturday SEC Semis Auburn)
7) Michigan State (Lock) MSU is as locked into the 2 seed line regardless of the Big 10 tournament. Anything else would be truly shocking. (Saturday Big 10 Semis Wisconsin)
8) St. John's (Lock) I have had St. John's as the last 2 seed for going on close to 3 weeks now and they just keep winning to justify it. Won 8 in a row including beating Creighton, UConn and Marquette twice both away from home. They don't have the quantity of elite wins but 17-4 vs. Quad 1 +2 is better than anyone else below them. (Saturday BE Final Creighton)
3 Seeds
9) Texas Tech (Lock) Great quality metrics, better than St. Joeseph's . They can be elite when healthy. 9-4 vs. Quad 1 is eye opening. (Regular Season Over)
10) Kentucky (Lock) Elite resume numbers 8 quad 1A wins, 11 quad 1. #9 in WAB should keep them as a 3 seed with an outside chance at a 2. (Regular Season Over)
11) Texas A&M (Lock) A&M was pretty much locked into the 3 line before the SECT and I don't think Thursday changes that. 16 quad 1 and quad 2 wins . 5 quad 1A wins, top 10 in the resume ranks, all the numbers indicate they are still a step ahead of the Big 10 teams but with Maryland and Wisconsin still alive in the Big 10 tournament, its possible to get passed depending on how much the committee considers wins over the weekend. 2 seed feels like an extreme long shot the way St. John's has taken command, wouldn't be entirely out of the question but probably >1% chance. 80% 3 seed, 19% 4 seed. Would go back up to over 90% chance for a 3 if Maryland and Wisconsin both lose. (Regular Season Over)
12) Iowa State (Lock) Only 2 quad 1A wins, and down to #25 in KPI so being a 4 seed would not be a shocker. They also have some injury concerns the committee may be factoring in. They will be watching the Big 10 tournament closely to protect their seed. (Regular Season Over)
4 Seeds
13) Maryland (Lock) Great quality numbers, big win at Michigan to close the year and then pounded Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament to cement their spot on the 4 line and represent the conference's best chance to get to a 3 seed (not counting MSU locked in as a 2. (Saturday Big 10 Semis Michigan)
14) Wisconsin (Lock) Not much separates the 2nd tier Big 10 teams. Wisconsin will have a great argument to be the 2nd highest Big 10 team with a win on Saturday. (Saturday Big 10 Semis Michigan State)
15) Oregon (Lock) Predictive metrics still stink but they have racked up some great wins this year 8 quad 1. #12 in WAB but quality #s in the mid 30s. 11th best pure resume numbers. (Regular Season Over)
16) Clemson (Lock) lack of high-end wins (4 quad 1) and a Q3 loss cap the ceiling for this profile. That quad 3 loss to Georgia Tech in 3OT is their only loss since January 7th before falling in the ACCT. That may speak more to how weak the ACC is than anything though. Losing to Louisville puts their spot as the last 4 a bit in jeopardy especially with Arizona coming on. (Regular Season Over)
5 Seeds
17) Arizona (Lock) Faded a bit down the stretch with 5 losses in the last 9 games but a strong performance in the Big 12 tournament. Might be too late to push them back up to a 4 depending on if they get full consideration from the committee for the wins. (Saturday Big Final Houston)
18) Purdue (Lock) Resume slipped a bit down the stretch, and looks a step behind the Wisconsin/ Maryland/Oregon trio. (Regular Season Over)
19) Ole Miss (Lock) 6 Quad1A wins, only Alabama, Auburn and UK have more. Only 1 loss outside of Quad 1. Quality numbers lack a bit but there is enough here to be a 6 seed or perhaps even a 5. (Regular Season Over)
20) Michigan (Lock) Lost the last 3 games of the regular season and the quality numbers took a huge tumble (now sitting at 30+ across the board) (Saturday Big 10 Semis Maryland)
6 Seeds
21) Louisville (Lock) I am a bit higher on Louisville than others and could easily see them as high as a 5 Their resume avg is 16.3 which is higher than Maryland, Arizona, and everyone below a 5. That is a bit surprising given they are 0-3 vs. Quad 1A. They do have 4 quad 1 wins and no bad losses though. Only 1 loss since December 14th. (Saturday ACC Final Duke)
22) BYU (Lock) The hottest team in college basketball, racking up elite wins lately after they had started the season 0-7 vs. quad 1. Made that 6-7 before losing in the Big 12 semis to Houston. (Regular Season Over)
23) UCLA (Lock) Impressive 5-3 vs. quad 1A and 9 Quad 1 wins. All of the resume numbers are in the 20s so there isn't too much of a compelling case to go higher than a 6. (Regular Season Over)
24) St. Mary's (Lock) A loss in the WCC final to Gonzaga wouldn't normally be one that would hurt but #19-30 is so close that I do think this allows a few profiles to slip ahead of them and drops the Gaels back to a 6 seed. (Regular Season Over)
7 Seeds
25) Illinois (Lock) Impressive close to the year blowing out Michigan in Ann Arbor and then beating Purdue. Illinois should be a 6 or 7. (Regular Season Over)
26) Kansas (Lock) 6 quad 1 wins, #18 in the quality metrics, 7 feels like an underseed but with the quality of the 5 and 6 lines I am not sure who you displace. (Regular Season Over)
27) Gonzaga (Lock) Gonzaga had 1 quad 1 win 2 weeks ago but pick up 3 quad 1 wins in their last 4 games to go along with elite (top 10) quality metrics. Their resume will still lag, and you have to wonder if they will get full credit for the tournament wins, but I also believe the committee doesn't want to make a 1 seed play Gonzaga in the 1st weekend. (Regular Season Over)
28) Memphis (Lock) Quality numbers (Avg. 49.7) and 3 quad 3 losses cap this profile as a 7 seed. (Saturday AAC Semis Tulane)
8 Seeds
29) Missouri (Lock) They probably wish they didn't play 8 quad 4 games (more than anyone else in the top 9 seed lines other than St. Mary's. That really hurts their overall profile. Under .500 vs quad 1+2 also pushes them down a bit. There is still so much good on this resume but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them land as low as an 8 seed given how strong the 6 and 7 lines are. (Regular Season Over)
30) Marquette (Lock) Lose the last 2 to UConn and St. John's to end the year. Should be a 7 or 8 on Selection Sunday. (Regular Season Over)
31) Mississippi State (Lock) It doesn't feel right to put Mississippi State this low but the 5, 6, 7 seed lines are just so competitive this year and this resume feels a touch behind right now. (Regular Season Over)
32) UConn (Lock) From a pure numbers standpoint this resume is no better than an 8 seed. Will they get any kind of bump for their recent tournament success? Several metrics in the mid 30s (Regular Season Over)
9 Seeds
33) Creighton (Lock) Solidly an 8 or 9 seed. 6-5 vs. quad 1 with no bad losses. A little too much of the resume is built on quad 3 and 4 success to be more than an 8. (Saturday Big East Final St. John's)
34) New Mexico (Lock) The win over UCLA and winning the MWC regular season will earn the Lobos a 9 seed. (Regular Season Over)
35) Georgia (Lock) 4 straight big wins to end the year including beating Florida sent the Bulldogs soaring up the seed lines. An early exit in the SECT shouldn't hurt too much. I am a bit higher on Uga but I think a lot of that is folks waking up to see how much the numbers improved over the last 2 weeks. (Regular Season over)
36) Baylor (Lock) Baylor should be breathing a bit easier after beating K State in the Big 12 tournament and probably has done enough to avoid Dayton. With a KPI of 48 though don't be surprised to see them seeded a bit lower though. (Regular Season Over)
10 Seeds
37) Utah State (Lock) - Quality metrics around 50 are a bit scary for an at large team but 9-7 vs. quad 1 + 2 and no bad losses means they are a lock and should be safe enough to avoid Dayton. (Regular Season Over)
38) Oklahoma (Lock) A roller coaster ride for Sooner fans after starting 13-0 non-conference, then 4-12 in conference, felt like they needed to win each of their last 2 conference games vs. Mizzou and Texas and they did just that. 7 Q1 wins with non-conference wins over Michigan, Arizona and Louisville feels like it will be enough. (Regular Season Over)
39) Drake (Missouri Valley Auto bid Secured) Drake avoids all drama associated with Selection Sunday and clinches the auto bid. Should be near the 10 line. 2-0 vs. Quad 1 beating Vanderbilt on a neutral court and winning at Kansas State. Only 3 losses all year and they are all quad 3 losses. Terrible quality numbers in the mid-60's (Regular Season Over)
40) West Virginia (Lock) 4 quad 1A wins, 6 quad 1, and no bad losses. Always a great recipe for avoiding Dayton. Quality metrics in the mid 40s will keep WVU in the 10 seed range even after the early exit to the Big 12 tournament. (Regular Season Over)
11 Seeds
41) Arkansas (Lock) Back-to-back big wins over Vanderbilt and Miss State to end the year moves the Hogs to lock status. 4 Quad 1A wins @Michigan, @Kentucky, @Texas and vs. Mizzou. (Regular Season Over)
42) Vanderbilt (Lock) The loss to Texas in the 1st round of the SECT means that Vandy may be an 11 seed and potentially could wind up in Dayton. Quality numbers into the 40s look very Daytonesque. I am still confident their 5 quad 1 wins and no bad losses have them dancing. (Regular Season Over)
Last 4 at large In
43) Indiana Fairly safe coming into tournament week but a first round exit leaves the Hoosiers vulnerable to bid thieves. (Regular Season Over)
44) San Diego State - Struggled in conference play including an early exit to the MWC tournament. If they ultimately get in it feels like they can thank that November win vs. Houston as the difference. (Regular Season Over)
45) UC San Diego Big West Placeholder Only played 5 games all year above quad 3, splitting with UC Irvine, winning at Utah State and losing at San Diego State and beating CSUN on the road. They also picked up 2 quad 3 losses along the way. They have continued to take care of business winning 13 straight to give themselves a legitimate at large chance. It remains to be seen if they could absorb a loss in the conference tournament…if it was in the finals to UC Irvine, it wouldn't do much damage. (Saturday Big West Final UC Irvine
12 seeds
46) Boise State 2 good wins in the non-conference over St. Mary's and Clemson. 2 quad 3 losses and only a 8-6 record vs. quad 1 and 2 means that they will have a nervous wait if they don't secure the auto bid. Bouncing both San Diego State and New Mexico from the MWC tournament is a nice feather in the cap will they get full credit for the wins? (Saturday MWC Final Colorado State)
47) VCU (Atlantic 10 placeholder) Rams fall 1 win short of being able to enter tournament week with wiggle room. Quality metrics in the high 20s but they don't have a quad 1 win so unless they get the auto bid it is going to be a nervous wait on Selection Sunday. If they don't win the A10 tournament I give them about a 50% chance to sneak in. (Saturday A10 Semis Loyola-Chicago)
48) Xavier Winners of 7 straight to end the year to be on the right side of the bubble going into the conference tournament but they went 0-1 there to leave them very vulnerable to other teams jumping over them and/or a bid thief or 2. (Regular Season Over)
Projecting 20 one bid leagues regardless of conference tournaments, for spots 49-68 (will be adjusted for stolen bids and some at large bids above this line will go away)
One bid leagues, with approximate seed range, will reorder exact seed line close to selection Sunday
49) Southland McNeese 12 seed
50) Big South High Point Dangerous 12/13 seed that I want no part of terrible matchup
51) Atlantic Sun Lipscomb 13 seed
52) Sun Belt Troy 14 seed
53) Coastal UNCW 14 seed
54) Horizon - Robert Morris 14/15 seed
55) Big Sky Montana 15 seed
56) Summit Omaha 15 seed
57) Southern Wofford 15/16 seed
58) OVC SIUE 16 seed (Possibly in Dayton)
59) Patriot League American 16 seed in Dayton
60) NEC St. Francis (PA) 16 seed in Dayton
61) America East Saturday Maine vs. Bryant 15/16 seed
62) Conference USA Saturday Liberty vs. Jax State seed (Liberty a possible 12)
63) MAAC Saturday 15/16 seed Mt. St Mary's vs. Iona
64) MAC Saturday 13/14 seed Akron vs. Miami (OH)
65) MEAC Saturday 16 seed, possible in Dayton SC State vs. Norfolk State
66) SWAC Saturday 16 seed in Dayton Alabama State vs. Jackson State
67) WAC Saturday 13/14 seed Utah Valley vs. Grand Canyon
68) Ivy Sunday likely 13 seed
Possible Bid Thieves (Teams that are not already in and would take away a spot from a team in now by getting an at large)
A year after 5 true bid thieves, it looks increasingly likely we have the opposite this year with as few as 1 if Memphis gets the auto bid.
American: Tulane, North Texas, UAB
Mountain West: Guaranteed bid thief - Boise State, Colorado State
A10 likely a 1 bid league no matter what, VCU has a slim shot to get an at large to make it a 2 bid league:
St. Joseph's, Loyola-Chicago, George Mason
Big West: UC Irvine (will likely be a 1 bid league anyways but this was always the exact scenario that would potentially put 2 BW teams in.
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69) Colorado State Colorado State has stayed on the very fringe of this bubble watch for a month now working their way up from #100 to just 1 spot out. The problem is that their side of the MWC bracket was the weak side so they didn't do much in terms of needle moving wins. And if they lose to Boise State in the final that means CSU would need to rely on being the 5th MWC team in, which seems like it is asking a lot with a 3 bid ACC. (Saturday MWC Final Boise State)
70) North Carolina What a way to lose and potentially end the season. Getting blown out by 24, come all the way back with a chance to win it at the line, clank one and a lane violation on the 2nd. Absolutely brutal. Fall to 1-12 vs. quad 1. They also have a quad 3 loss. I think ultimately UNC will be in the first 5 out Feels like they probably need to beat Duke to stay in. We will see how the rest of the bubble does the next 2 days to see how many spots are still available but looks like ultimately the Tar Heels will be just out. (Regular Season Over)
71) Texas Horns had the #285 non conference and took 2 losses. Then they went 6-12 in the SEC. With those 6 wins and the 2 in the tournament they did get to 7 quad 1 wins which is clearly the highlight of the resume. Minnesota also has 7 quad 1 wins and they won't make the NIT though. Ultimately this just feels like a resume that would typically be a first four out resume, but someone needs to play their way in to get those last spot or 2. (Regular Season Over)
72) Ohio State Lose the first game of the Big 10 Tournament to Iowa to fall to 17-15 on the season. I think had they won that game they would have snuck into Dayton but just 11-15 vs. quad 1 + 2 + 3, Even with 6 quad 1 wins typically you don't get an at large if you can't go .500 vs the top 3 quads. Buckeyes likely headed to the NIT. (Regular Season Over)
73) UC Irvine Well we made it to the exact scenario that could possibly lead to 2 Big West bids. The much more realistic path is UCI beating UCSD, as the UCI at large case will be thin - the quality metrics stink (94h in the BPI and 80 in Torvik) but the resume numbers will at least make it a conversation 39th in KPI. The win at UC San Diego counts as a quad 1A win. (Saturday Big West Final UCSD)
74) Wake Forest Faded badly down the stretch with the resume numbers falling to near 50 and the quality numbers near 70. The neutral court win over Michigan carried them for a bit but with Michigan also fading this looks like a NIT resume. (Regular Season Over)
Eliminated in the last week:
Nebraska (Sunday 3/9)
San Francisco (Monday 3/10)
Dayton (Friday 3/14)
