Yeah but we beat them (it was technically in Lexington, not Louisville, but same difference). Law blew the layup in the next game against Memphis in San Antonio in the Sweet 16.

Looking back, it wasn't even on my radar that game was in San Antonio … why didn't we go??

TjgtAg08 said:

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Yeah but we beat them (it was technically in Lexington, not Louisville, but same difference). Law blew the layup in the next game against Memphis in San Antonio in the Sweet 16.

Looking back, it wasn't even on my radar that game was in San Antonio … why didn't we go??

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Cause we were broke college kids? I dunno, seems dumb looking back at it

I'm sure someone has already posted who we are rooting for to win and lose today. I can't seem to find it. I think we want(ed) UK to lose? That's unlikely at this point. What are the other teams that we want to lose?

It's on the seed watch thread

Drake tied with Belmont with 4 minutes remaining

Colleyville, bobinator,

Who do you see as the last 2 seed? Doubt Texas Tech gets it since we have the head to head. Wisconsin lost today at home. St. John's had the buzzer beater win at Marquette.

I am leaning towards us based off the non conference. I think we are a no doubt 3 seed if we don't get that last 2.

Not really a huge reason for it other than the SEC having so many spots on the first two lines already. If it weren't for that, we'd probably be the last two seed.

As it stands, I don't think the committee would put us on the 2 at all but they might if we win the SEC tourney.

They did absolutely wreck the Big East, which theoretically doesn't matter but sometimes seems to.

I have been saying St. John's for 2 weeks and been alone on an island. 15-4 vs quad 1+2 is better than anyone else in the conversation. Only Duke and st.John's were in the first top 16 reveal and then went undefeated, and in that span St. John's beat UConn, Creighton and won at Marquette. They are ahead of A&M in all 3 quality metrics and Strength of record.

"Only" 5-4 vs quad 1 but everything points to they would have just as many Ws as A&M got if they had as many opportunities.

The argument against them is that they didn't go out of conference and do anything special - like beating Purdue, tech, Creighton, Ohio state, wake forest etc.

It's close and it won't be a unanimous decision in the room but I would give it to St. John's

Great to hear!! Thanks for doing this!

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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Full update will be late tonight but spoiler alert…. I will have us as a 3 tonight and we will be a 3 on selection Sunday. I think the only thing that would make me think twice is if St. John's loses to providence in the BE tourney and we go on a little run. Otherwise I think it's baked. I don't really foresee any scenario where we drop to a 4 based on past committee behavior.

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I greatly appreciate the amazing and level headed insight you and bobinator bring to the basketball board each year. Thanks for doing this again this year.

Agree. I think we're good to go for a 3 seed. I don't think it would be egregious if we're a 4, it's within the cone of uncertainty, but I think we're a strong 3.

When was the last time UNC did not make the NCAA tournament? They are within 1 of Duke right now and guarantee they would get in if they win today.

If not, well...

We have a lot of quad 2A wins. Are they valued at all? We'll have 4 wins against teams who will be in the 30s at day's end. (sips, Georgia, Ohio State, and Arkansas).

PascalsWager said:

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We have a lot of quad 2A wins. Are they valued at all? We'll have 4 wins against teams who will be in the 30s at day's end. (sips, Georgia, Ohio State, and Arkansas).

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Also to follow up my own question we have SO many wins close to the 1 cutline, and none on close to dropping to quad 2. There's a realistic scenario that by conference tournament's end we could have 10 quad 1 wins without lifting a finger compared to our current moment 7. Does that move the needle?

If so, shouldn't we be rooting for Ohio State, Arkansas, and Georgia?

Not really. I think fans and media overvalue the quad specifics compared to the committee.

Yall think if Tech loses to ASU we have a chance to jump to the 2 seed line?

stoneca said:

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Yall think if Tech loses to ASU we have a chance to jump to the 2 seed line?

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I think that was the recent conversation. It is between St. John's and us in my eyes. Agree that i think St. John's has a slight edge.

If UNC gets to play Duke again it might be good test for the tournaments don't matter theory.

bobinator said:

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Not really. I think fans and media overvalue the quad specifics compared to the committee.

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Agreed. It is a sorting tool to make it easier to talk about at a glance. I do think the committee digs in and takes a closer look and yes it does matter beating #45 net on the road vs. #72 even though both are quad 1B.

LouisvilleAg said:

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stoneca said:

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Yall think if Tech loses to ASU we have a chance to jump to the 2 seed line?

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I think that was the recent conversation. It is between St. John's and us in my eyes. Agree that i think St. John's has a slight edge.

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Just curious what made you jump on the St. Johns train since you had them at 16 coming into today and seems like you had them below Kansas for a while?

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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LouisvilleAg said:

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stoneca said:

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Yall think if Tech loses to ASU we have a chance to jump to the 2 seed line?

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I think that was the recent conversation. It is between St. John's and us in my eyes. Agree that i think St. John's has a slight edge.

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Just curious what made you jump on the St. Johns train since you had them at 16 coming into today and seems like you had them below Kansas for a while?

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Well.... you. You made some good points in the WAB. I made some adjustments to my model and valued that more. I had St. John's right behind A&M with Wisconsin above A&M. Tech was right behind St. John's. Wisconsin lost today and SJ had that buzzer batter. A&M played a Q2. No matter what Tech does, I don't think they will be put above A&M.

OP Updated

Locks: West Virginia, Baylor (competitive enough and enough losses at the bubble), Utah State, Arkansas,
Eliminated: SMU, Cincinnati

Moving Up: Indiana, Kansas, UCLA
Moving Down: Wisconsin, Mizzou, Vanderbilt


As expected, a very busy day and lots of updates throughout the BW.

Don't expect major movements over the final 8 days from this picture until Selection Sunday.

After the win over LSU, it looks like a 3 seed projection is the strong consensus based on most of the recent bracket updates. In fact, on Bracket Matrix, 37 brackets have been updated since 3/8:

2-seed - 1 bracket
3-seed - 27 brackets
4-seed - 9 brackets

If we do end up as a 3-seed, which of the projected 6-seeds do you want in our region (information copied from ColleyvilleAg06 original post):

Ole Miss - 6 Quad1A wins, only Alabama, Auburn and UK have more. Only 1 loss outside of Quad 1. Quality numbers lack a bit but there is enough here to be a 6 seed.

UCLA - Dominant 27 point win on Saturday to close the year. Impressive 5-3 vs. quad 1A and 9 Quad 1 wins.

Louisville - Their resume avg is 17.7 which is higher than Maryland, Arizona, and everyone below a 5. That is a bit surprising given they are 0-3 vs. Quad 1A. They do have 4 quad 1 wins and no bad losses though. Only 1 loss since December 14th.

Illinois - Impressive close to the year blowing out Michigan in Ann Arbor and then beating Purdue.

Of those I would prefer Louisville.

Also, in perusing bracket matrix most of the ones that we are a 4 in are 100% formulas and most of them heavily weight NET and KenPom as the basis for their ranking. Not saying those aren't valid inputs into the final output but I would say they are overvalued in their formulas.

Thank you for the update Colleyville, here is mine. We start to differentiate around the 4 seed.

1 seeds:
Auburn - South
Houston - Midwest
Duke - East
Alabama - West

2 seeds:
Florida
Tennessee
Michigan State
Texas A&M or St. John's

3 seeds:
Texas A&M or St. John's
Texas Tech
Kentucky
Iowa State

4 seeds:
Wisconsin
Louisville
Oregon
Clemson

5 seeds:
Purdue
Maryland
Michigan
Ole Miss

6 seeds:
Arizona
Kansas
Saint Mary's
BYU

7 seeds:
Illinois
UCLA
Memphis
Marquette

8 seeds:
Mississippi State
Creighton
Missouri
New Mexico

9 seeds:
UConn
Georgia
Gonzaga
West Virginia

10 seeds:
Baylor
Utah State
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma

11 seeds:
Arkansas
Drake
VCU

Last 4 in:
San Diego State
Indiana
Ohio State
Xavier or North Carolina

Last 2 seed
St. John's Resume - 15 (KenPom), 16 (BPI), 22 (T-Rank), 7 (SOR), 8 (WAB), 14 (KPI), 17 (NET) 4-4 (Q1), 10-0 (Q2)
Texas A&M Resume - 17 (KenPom), 20 (BPI), 25 (T-Rank), 10 (SOR), 9 (WAB), 10 (KPI), 16 (NET), 8-7 (Q1), 8-2 (Q2)

Last Bubble Spot
Xavier Resume - 42 (KenPom), 39 (BPI), 36 (T-Rank), 40 (SOR), 48 (WAB), 60 (KPI), 44 (NET), 1-8 (Q1), 8-2 (Q2), 5-0 (Q3), 7-0 (Q4)
UNC Resume - 37 (KenPom), 28 (BPI), 41 (T-Rank), 42 (SOR), 45 (WAB), 55 (KPI), 40 (NET), 1-11 (Q1), 7-0 (Q2), 6-1 (Q3), 6-0 (Q4)

Drake was probably getting in anyway so that's one bid stealer avoided in the MVC.

Bubble picture continuing to get much clearer.

Seems the last week everyone just barely out (Texas, SMU, Nebraska) have taken losses that take them essentially completely out of the picture and those that are just in (Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Drake, OU) have won to take the drama out of next Sunday for them. VCU/Dayton being the exception to this rule.

Still a few right on the cutline but we have a pretty good picture of who is in the field. Of course it seems every year there is one surprise that the committee is just way different than the general consensus on.

Every time I think I've got a feel for it I remember 2022 Rutgers

I kind of wonder that might be Wake Forest this year.

Will be very interesting to see who gets that last 2seed (if it's between us and St Johns). Overall it looks like they should have the edge, but if the committee goes harder on a few specific things, it might flip to us.

A wildcard could be NCSOS. Theirs is a lot worse than ours according to KenPom, but less worse according to some others (not sure exactly how the committee calculates NCSOS). We've heard the committee be very vocal in the recent past about non-conference schedules, but who knows if that's more of a "comparing bubble teams" thing or "comparing any 2 teams" thing.