I think people need to remember the committee is exclusively athletic directors and conference commissioners, not a bunch of basketball data nerds.
*****ColleyvilleAg06 Bubble Watch*****
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Last: 1 min ago by bobinator
bobinator said:
I think people need to remember the committee is exclusively athletic directors and conference commissioners, not a bunch of basketball data nerds.
Yes, and ones that are going to be prone to thinking the conferences are more equal than they really are.
OP updated to reflect the late night in the WCC tournament,
San Francisco has been eliminated, they were a fringe bubble contender that if they had beaten Gonzaga would possibly have gotten some consideration but they will end the year 0-5 in their quad 1A opportunities, a NET of 64 and resume numbers in the 50s. Should get a chance for a home game in the NIT.
San Francisco has been eliminated, they were a fringe bubble contender that if they had beaten Gonzaga would possibly have gotten some consideration but they will end the year 0-5 in their quad 1A opportunities, a NET of 64 and resume numbers in the 50s. Should get a chance for a home game in the NIT.
1 member each representing the Big 10, ACC, SEC and Big 12.bobinator said:
Yes, and ones that are going to be prone to thinking the conferences are more equal than they really are.
The other 8 of 12 represent mid and low majors.
You left the ACC in your major list by accident.
Bracketology must have been hacked. We get a home game next week as do all the other top 4 seeds!!!
OP updated with some more auto bid tickets punched
ACC / Big 12 games today did not have any bubble teams in action
St. Mary's slips one seed line to a 6 and Gonzaga up 1 to a 7 mainly because the teams are so closely bunched together where they are.
Finally a full day of bubble action on tap tomorrow where we should see some more locks and eliminations.
ACC / Big 12 games today did not have any bubble teams in action
St. Mary's slips one seed line to a 6 and Gonzaga up 1 to a 7 mainly because the teams are so closely bunched together where they are.
Finally a full day of bubble action on tap tomorrow where we should see some more locks and eliminations.
bobinator said:
Yes, and ones that are going to be prone to thinking the conferences are more equal than they really are.
And ones who are prone to remembering Buzz trashing them 3 years back.
The only holdovers from the 2022 committee are Bubba Cunningham (UNC), Greg Byrne (Alabama and son of Bill), Mark Coyle (Minnesota), and Keith Gill (Sun Belt).
Also, people conveniently forget that A&M was seeded at least 1-2 entire seed lines ahead of where all conventional wisdom suggested they would land last year.
The fact that there are only 4 remaining members from 3 years ago highlights the other issue with the committee - it is nearly impossible to correctly predict what factors will be most important to them given there may have been someone on the committee last year that really valued non conf sos or record away from home or quad 1a wins and now that person is no longer on the committee.
That's also why I put a little more stock into the February top 16 reveal because it gives a little insight into what factors may be important this go around (looks like WAB and ooc schedule play a bigger factor than KenPom)
Also, people conveniently forget that A&M was seeded at least 1-2 entire seed lines ahead of where all conventional wisdom suggested they would land last year.
The fact that there are only 4 remaining members from 3 years ago highlights the other issue with the committee - it is nearly impossible to correctly predict what factors will be most important to them given there may have been someone on the committee last year that really valued non conf sos or record away from home or quad 1a wins and now that person is no longer on the committee.
That's also why I put a little more stock into the February top 16 reveal because it gives a little insight into what factors may be important this go around (looks like WAB and ooc schedule play a bigger factor than KenPom)
I'm not so sure Memphis' ceiling is a 7. Their profile looks extraordinarily similar to South Carolina last year. Their Net, Resume, and Quality (per Torvik team sheets) are eerily similar. South Carolina got a 6 seed.
Maybe the major conference is what boosted South Carolina to a 6, and Memphis doesn't have that advantage. But sure seems to me like a conference championship would get them a 6 with resume numbers in the teens.
You know this stuff way better than me. Just postulating over here
Edit: I went back to 2023, and Memphis had the same resume as this year, but also had way better Net and Quality metrics in 2023, yet got an 8 seed that year. So maybe their ceiling truly is 7/8. Seems very difficult to assess what actually matters for seeding.
Maybe the major conference is what boosted South Carolina to a 6, and Memphis doesn't have that advantage. But sure seems to me like a conference championship would get them a 6 with resume numbers in the teens.
You know this stuff way better than me. Just postulating over here
Edit: I went back to 2023, and Memphis had the same resume as this year, but also had way better Net and Quality metrics in 2023, yet got an 8 seed that year. So maybe their ceiling truly is 7/8. Seems very difficult to assess what actually matters for seeding.
I think it's gotten a lot easier in the last decade, but one thing I always say this time of year, and now with the CFP, is never underestimate what people in a locked room together can convince themselves of.
Also why I hope I'm never accused of a major crime.
Also why I hope I'm never accused of a major crime.
Gigemags382 said:
I'm not so sure Memphis' ceiling is a 7. Their profile looks extraordinarily similar to South Carolina last year. Their Net, Resume, and Quality (per Torvik team sheets) are eerily similar. South Carolina got a 6 seed.
Maybe the major conference is what boosted South Carolina to a 6, and Memphis doesn't have that advantage. But sure seems to me like a conference championship would get them a 6 with resume numbers in the teens.
You know this stuff way better than me. Just postulating over here
Edit: I went back to 2023, and Memphis had the same resume as this year, but also had way better Net and Quality metrics in 2023, yet got an 8 seed that year. So maybe their ceiling truly is 7/8. Seems very difficult to assess what actually matters for seeding.
It's different every year with different committee members and also depends on what everyone else around that team has done as well
And I do think there is some major conference bias and bias towards teams with a strong history
Arkansas & South Carolina facing off right now. I know you have Arky as a lock, but if I were them I'd feel like we'd need this game to feel safe. And certainly to stay out of the play-in game.
Jerry Palm is ColleyvilleAg06.
ColleyvilleAg06 is Jerry Palm.
JERRY PALM IS AN AG?!?!?!
ColleyvilleAg06 is Jerry Palm.
JERRY PALM IS AN AG?!?!?!
Except Palm sucks at it
Someone tell me who I need to root for in all of these conference tourneys, please.
Arkansas looks like they'll run away with it. They're a 10 seed I wouldn't want to face in the ncaa tourney. Had a rough start to conference play, but other than the recent loss to South Carolina, they've had a strong finish.
It's pretty simple this year, we're against everyone close to us on the seed list
AgEng06 said:
Someone tell me who I need to root for in all of these conference tourneys, please.
Would've been nice for Iowa St to lose to Cincy, but looks like they've got it.
Fair enough. I'm not a die-hard enough basketball fan (other than the Aggies) to know ahead of time, but I definitely like following the games if I know who to root for.
Yeah it's more complicated when we're on the bubble but we're basically against Tech, St. John's, Iowa State, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Clemson, Oregon and Arizona.
I don't think anyone above or below that matters to us.
I don't think anyone above or below that matters to us.
It's great that Arky gets a mulligan against South Carolina in their first SECT matchup. They get to make up for that bad loss.
I'm at the Big XII tournament now and will be pulling hard against tceh ( and KU , ISU and Cougar High for that matter )
"I didn't come here to lose!" Charley Moran
Gigemags382 said:
Arkansas looks like they'll run away with it. They're a 10 seed I wouldn't want to face in the ncaa tourney. Had a rough start to conference play, but other than the recent loss to South Carolina, they've had a strong finish.
Welp this is not aging well at all haha. Arky hasn't scored a FG in nearly 10 minutes of game time
Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:
It's great that Arky gets a mulligan against South Carolina in their first SECT matchup. They get to make up for that bad loss.
Yeah. Just had to come back and confess that I also might've jinxed Arky! Would be something if South Carolina puts them back on the bubble after many felt comfortable that they were likely in the NCAAT.
They can seal it here but not making a good showing for the committee
I don't see the Buckeyes dancing now with that 17-15 record.
I know Scar made Ark sweat a bit but Scar is not a bad team and any win away from home in this league is a good win. I feel comfortable Arkansas was safe even if they lost this one, now with this win I feel pretty comfortable they will avoid Dayton. I have them over Vanderbilt at this point.
With what MSU is doing to LSU, Texas is now clearly the worst team left in the tournament, hopefully we can take care of business and end the Horns season.
With what MSU is doing to LSU, Texas is now clearly the worst team left in the tournament, hopefully we can take care of business and end the Horns season.
miller0926 said:
I don't see the Buckeyes dancing now with that 17-15 record.
Agree. They are now out for me. Full update coming late tonight.
Gigemags382 said:
I'm not so sure Memphis' ceiling is a 7. Their profile looks extraordinarily similar to South Carolina last year. Their Net, Resume, and Quality (per Torvik team sheets) are eerily similar. South Carolina got a 6 seed.
Maybe the major conference is what boosted South Carolina to a 6, and Memphis doesn't have that advantage. But sure seems to me like a conference championship would get them a 6 with resume numbers in the teens.
You know this stuff way better than me. Just postulating over here
Edit: I went back to 2023, and Memphis had the same resume as this year, but also had way better Net and Quality metrics in 2023, yet got an 8 seed that year. So maybe their ceiling truly is 7/8. Seems very difficult to assess what actually matters for seeding.
2024 South Carolina is a good comparison for 2025 Memphis. I do think that South Carolina profile was a bit better (SOR was 10, Memphis SOR is 16), Memphis also has a 3rd quad 3 loss, South Carolina "only" had 2.
The other big difference is each year there are certain seed lines that are stronger than others. This year the 1 line through the first 7 teams is insanely strong. #8 will be one of the weakest 2 seeds in a long time. The 5,6,7, and 8 seeds are maybe the strongest I have ever seen. UConn and Mizzou as an 8 is absurd but that's where we are. 9-11 are incredibly weak seed lines.
Memphis may have been able to get a 6 with last years field but there are too many holes in their profile to crack the first 6 seed lines imo.
OP is updated through 3/4 of Wednesday's action. Still a few late night games to go including Uga/Oklahoma and Kansas in action.
Assuming Oklahoma wins tonight (they are down currently), i have them and Vandy swapped. How in danger is west Virginia? They lost to Colorado today...
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson
I also think you are sleeping on North Carolina. They are better than 45 in every metric except NET (47) and KPI (51). I know their Q1 sucks but so did Xavier's.
And don't hold me on which metrics are worse than 45. Trying to go off memory.
And don't hold me on which metrics are worse than 45. Trying to go off memory.
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson
I'm leaning towards mostly preferring to face the 6s day two over the 7s, let's just rest up
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