LouisvilleAg said:

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Assuming Oklahoma wins tonight (they are down currently), i have them and Vandy swapped. How in danger is west Virginia? They lost to Colorado today...

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Yes I have OU moving ahead of Vandy, Indiana and Arkansas to grab the last 10 seed.

I already updated WV and moved them down to my 3rd 10 seed. They are still safe. Don't really need to worry about Dayton unless we get a bunch of bid thieves.

LouisvilleAg said:

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I also think you are sleeping on North Carolina. They are better than 45 in every metric except NET (47) and KPI (51). I know their Q1 sucks but so did Xavier's.

And don't hold me on which metrics are worse than 45. Trying to go off memory.

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UNC will move into the field if they win tomorrow. For them to stay there with the inevitable bid thieves they need to beat Duke too on Friday. I'd say it's a very low probability they get an at large without 2 more wins.

OP updated through Wednesday's action.

Oklahoma reaches lock status. Vandy now all the way back to last 4 in. I still consider them a lock but will revisit if we start getting a bunch of bids disappearing.

My rough swag at those outside now and what they probably need to get in starting from the end of the list.

I do not see anyone beyond these teams having any shot whatsoever at an at large. They are all way too far back and you just can't build an at large resume this late with the way this committee looks at things.

UC Irvine- need to win the auto bid. If they lose the championship to UCSD, and no bids are stolen, and the rest of the bubble loses soon...i would give them a very slim chance.

Colorado State - at a minumum needs to beat Nevada and Utah State, that would get them to the final. If they lose that one to UNM or SDSU they could get in depending what others on the list do.

Boise State - similar profile now as CSU but opposite sides of the bracket, if they beat SDSU and New Mexico, they have a pretty good chance to get in, especially if the finals loss is to Utah State

Texas - Needs to beat A&M to be in the conversation. If they do and get ALOT of help, they could sneak in. Otherwise they need to beat A&M and Tennessee. That is likely enough unless there are alot of bids stolen.

Ohio State- out of the Big 10 tournament, keeping them here as they will likely be listed as a first 4 out but there is not a realistic path

UNC - Needs to beat Wake and Duke to get to the final. Do that and they are in. If they just beat Wake and then lose to Duke they could possibly sneak in with help of no bid thieves

Dayton - Almost certainly need the auto bid as they wont get any good wins on their path. If they lose a close one to VCU in the final and they get ALOT of help there is a slim shot.
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Wake- basically identical path as UNC. i give them a slightly better chance to sneak in if they beat UNC and then lose to Duke.

VCU - basically identical chance as Dayton, if then get to the final and then lose a close one to Dayton, they have a slightly higher chance to sneak in than Dayton would vice versa.

Xavier - Possible to get in even if they lose to Marquette if they get tons of help (everyone below them loses quick and only 1 or less bid stolen. Beat Marquette and they have much more breathing room for not needing help but they wont fully punch their ticket unless they beat Marquette AND St. John's.

UCSD - The only path is to get to the final and then lose to UC Irvine, if they do that and not many bids are stolen they have a somewhat decent chance ~40%

San Diego State - Likely in already, win 1 to clinch it. if they lose and their are bids stolen they are in danger

Vandy - a bit of a nervous wait until Selection Sunday, should be ok unless there are bids stolen Dayton a real possibility

Indiana - Win against Oregon to lock themselves in. If they lose they slip behind Vandy and are vulnerable to bids disappearing.


Everyone above these teams should be fine although Arkansas, WV, OU, Utah State, Baylor, Uga, New Mexico would all be in play for Dayton depending how the next couple days go.

Ha ha, i am still being a bit tampered down with how much i move teams over these few days. But obviously if a team like UNC can pick up 3 wins in 3 days by beating Wake and Duke that completely changes the narrative. Note, most of those that are currently out, would need to get to the final and have alot of help - i.e. they really need to get the auto bid if they want to be safe. Those on the inside now, are staying on the inside with the exception of bid thieves.

I don't think a team like Texas is passing up a team like West Virginia or Utah State or even Indiana over the next 3 days regardless of what happens.

Great info. Do we really think this committee is paying attention to conference tournaments this year to lock in the field ? Have the said as much or is the hay in the barn from a making the field scenario? Lots of talking heads believe the conference tournaments matter in regard to who gets in?

They always say they consider every game. This year is no different in that I will believe it when I see it.

I have locked in considerably more teams than I typically do by this time, and my list of those out but under consideration is also considerably shorter. There are still some big opportunities the next 2 days to pick up quality wins. I don't think they are meaningless but I'm also not giving those wins quite full weight.

[Quoting that long post just to make a dumb trolling post made it an easy decision to ban you until the tournament is over. Thank you to all of the posters that used the voting function to alert us to this pointless post. -Staff]

fightintxag13 said:

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Senior VP Dan Gavitt provides @TheAndyKatz with an update on where things stand after Day 1 of selections. The committee has been placing teams on the seed list (in their initial positions before scrubbing) this morning. Enjoy the most underrated days on the sports calendar! https://t.co/jphhXJTqwg

— David Worlock (@DavidWorlock) March 13, 2025

"The conference tournament results are all taken under consideration, but remember these teams have all played likely 31 games coming into this week. So we have to look at these results with how the compliment the teams' body of work over the entire season."

But also...

"We're going to start seeding today." AND "We will likely start bracketing on Saturday."

My takeaway...these games don't make that much of a difference.

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That excerpt certainly seems to indicate that. But I listened to the video and he clearly indicated that while they'll start seeding today, that's only an initial seeding and will be adjusted as needed based on conference tournament games.

Edit: whether they actually do that or not is another story. But as far as what they're saying they'll do, they're saying they'll adjust based on conference tourney games.

fightintxag13 said:

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Senior VP Dan Gavitt provides @TheAndyKatz with an update on where things stand after Day 1 of selections. The committee has been placing teams on the seed list (in their initial positions before scrubbing) this morning. Enjoy the most underrated days on the sports calendar! https://t.co/jphhXJTqwg

— David Worlock (@DavidWorlock) March 13, 2025

"The conference tournament results are all taken under consideration, but remember these teams have all played likely 31 games coming into this week. So we have to look at these results with how the compliment the teams' body of work over the entire season."

But also...

"We're going to start seeding today." AND "We will likely start bracketing on Saturday."

My takeaway...these games don't make that much of a difference.

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It's been pretty clear the last 3-5 years, outside of a bid stealer the conference games mean little to nothing

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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This pdf is 14 years old. The NCAA publishes their updated procedure at their website.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2025-01-16/how-field-68-di-mens-teams-picked-march-madness-each-season

That confusing language (which was referring to the principles of conference teams not playing each other) was reworded.

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Thanks for sharing. Just getting around to watching this. Next year, we should hold our own voting within TexAgs and do this process. Think it would be fun to have 12 people on here run the scenario out and see who we think makes it in.

Colleyville how does Tech's campus being shut down because of chemical fires shooting up through the sewers affect their seed?

bobinator said:

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Colleyville how does Tech's campus being shut down because of chemical fires shooting up through the sewers affect their seed?

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Is this real?

Here is how i have the bracket right now following the rules that Colleyville provided. I hope I am wrong about Kansas' seed.

VIDEO: Chemical-colored flames seen rising up from manholes on Texas Tech campus as evacuation continues. Full story here: https://t.co/he4h3OjKph pic.twitter.com/3641Zdw2rH

— KCBD NewsChannel11 (@KCBD11) March 13, 2025

bobinator said:

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VIDEO: Chemical-colored flames seen rising up from manholes on Texas Tech campus as evacuation continues. Full story here: https://t.co/he4h3OjKph pic.twitter.com/3641Zdw2rH

— KCBD NewsChannel11 (@KCBD11) March 13, 2025

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Early spring break! Glad no one was injured.

Regardless of how the results to follow thus week, I expect UNC to squeeze in, and even probably avoid Dayton. Having Cunningham as the committee chair is probably enough for the suits making these decisions. Lunardi bumping them into the field inexplicably yesterday tells me something

Oh well. Second round exit at best.

Iowa State loses today on the off chance it might help us grab that 2.

BYU with another win possibly moving them up to a 6 seed and a re-match with their least favorite team to see in March...

is this ok to lol @ this?

li find this amusing and appropriate at tech

PJYoung said:

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Iowa State loses today on the off chance it might help us grab that 2.

BYU with another win possibly moving them up to a 6 seed and a re-match with their least favorite team to see in March...

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I think it solidifies them as at best a 3 seed. Could be anywhere between a 3 and 5.

Can you guys learn to spell Wichita ? It's really not that hard and

I too am subscribing to the conspiracy theory of a No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 6 Kansas second round in Wichita.

I need someone to tell me that we're still a 3 seed

BaytownAg13 said:

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I need someone to tell me that we're still a 3 seed

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I'm just praying that Wade gets 4 (or 5 ((or 6))) more games to add to the record books. Damn tough game to lose today, but we've bounced back from worse.

BaytownAg13 said:

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I need someone to tell me that we're still a 3 seed

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We're still a 3 seed. Outside chance we're a 2.

Pretty sure Tech's win just guaranteed that we're going to Denver now.

PJYoung said:

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BaytownAg13 said:

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I need someone to tell me that we're still a 3 seed

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We're still a 3 seed. Outside chance we're a 2.

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Pretty sure StJohns wrapped up the last 2 with Tech holding a maybe chance if they win the B12 tourney

OP Updated through 3/4 of Thursday's action.

A&M still solidly a 3 in my estimation, will continue to assess as the Big 10 teams on the 4 line are in action tomorrow.

Texas moves to first team out.

fatdad84ag said:

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PJYoung said:

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BaytownAg13 said:

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I need someone to tell me that we're still a 3 seed

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We're still a 3 seed. Outside chance we're a 2.

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Pretty sure StJohns wrapped up the last 2 with Tech holding a maybe chance if they win the B12 tourney

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Kentucky still has a shot too.