94chem said:

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AggieNattie said:

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Isn't it baffling to anyone else that UNC can still probably get in the field with only ONE Quad 1 win? If I'm a Texas fan and they got in over me, I'd be livid.

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If the committee is actually watching games, they would know that both teams should be in.

Texas has been erratic, but has really nice wins. UNC is playing tourney level basketball, beating up bubble teams and lower. UNC is hurt by all of their Q1 opportunities being against top 10 teams...
Duke 3x
Clemson
Louisville
Kansas (when ranked #1)
Florida
Auburn
Alabama
Michigan State

They've not had any Vanderbilt/UGA/OU type games.

The committee should go pick on the Mountain West and not hold the ACC to 3 bids.

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All three of Vandy, OU, and UGA are Quad 1 away games and Quad 2 home games. That's exactly how these (much weaker) ACC teams are scored in the Net rankings: SMU, Pitt, and Wake Forest. It's just the ACC's version are rated much lower but give the same benefit to UNC.

Texas also had 5 more Quad 1 games than UNC, which the Tar Heels made up by having 5 more Quad 3-4 games than Texas.

It could happen that the Tar Heels get in in front of Texas since some of the advanced metrics favor them, but I think the 1-12 thing while making hay in Quads 3-4 will favor the Horns.

I wouldn't to surprised to see them both out though (as well as Indiana). I think Texas is in front of both though. I think there's a decent chance Texas is in front of Xavier too.

PJYoung said:

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Charlie Moran said:

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The fact that the 1-8 selection lines are already decided shows how little the end of conference tournaments impact their process. Sure they hold out hope for the miracle bid stealers but for teams like A&M of the past who hope a "deep run " will make a difference, it's just Fools folly. It ain't gonna happen. I'm just happy we aren't in that situation for a change and despite all the Chicken Little's on here with our tu loss, it probably had minimal effect on our seeding

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I am guessing we are locked in as a 3 seed. The Big 10 tourney runs by Maryland and Wisconsin will end up not mattering.

Even if they seeded the top 4 seed lines last night (I personally think they did those on Thursday and maybe even Wednesday) then this is what they were looking at:

We still have the best WAB and our OOC SOS (and record in those games) shines.

https://bracketologists.com/compare/iowa-state-cyclones;arizona-wildcats;maryland-terrapins;wisconsin-badgers;texas-am-aggies

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IMHO, I think they have the protected seeds locked in as soon as the regular season ends because those high end teams are pretty much cemented in what they've built up over 31 games or so due to the high number of quality wins and metrics

It's hard to create movement there so they don't even bother. That's why you see potential 1 seeds lose their opening conf tourney game and stay a 1

Quote:

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As stated before, we can't play Texas until the Elite Eight. We've played them three times already.

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Has anybody actually done the math on, with the record shattering number of teams from the SEC in this year, this is mathematically possible?

The committee has never had to deal with 13-14 teams from the same conference before.

You start to look at undeserved seeding/locations to keep that rule in tact.

They're relaxing the rules already for teams that have played once and possibly twice, but not three times.

Guessing that's enough for Wisconsin.

I think Wisconsin just stole our 3 seed.

t - cam said:

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Guessing that's enough for Wisconsin.

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Fox has us and Wisconsin as a 3 with Iowa St as a 4. Seems most likely a 4, but still a shot at a 3

BADGERS! You are headed to the Big Ten title game!

You are also headed, at least for me, to the 3 seed line! Huge win over Michigan State to advance to the title game. Fun one to watch!

Either A&M or Iowa State will drop to a 4 seed for me, TBD. Will decide tonight.

— T3 Bracketology™️🏀 (@T3Bracketology) March 15, 2025

Part of me thinks committee will punish the team with a Quad 3 loss. That would be Iowa State.

I think we're going to see how much the committee takes into account the conference tourney games for non-bubble teams. If they do, we're probably in trouble. But who knows, maybe the don't like past seasons and we stay a 3.

OP updated. Wisconsin leaps A&M pushing us down to #12. I am still very confident we are ahead of Iowa State. I am less convinced we would be ahead of Maryland if Maryland picks up another win today.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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OP updated. Wisconsin leaps A&M pushing us down to #12. I am still very confident we are ahead of Iowa State. I am less convinced we would be ahead of Maryland if Maryland picks up another win today.

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Games that i think still matter:

Alabama / Florida - winner will be my last #1 seed, loser is my 1st 2 seed.

Memphis today and tomorrow, A win today keeps them a 7, a loss and they are an 8. A loss in either game moves the current last team in (Xavier) out.

Finals tonight and Ivy tomorrow to determine who are the actual teams that slot in but their seed lines are pretty much determined.

I do not believe the ACC Big 12, SEC or Big 10 finals will matter. MWC/Big West will only matter for the winner getting the auto bid and loser being out.

I would feel more nervous if Maryland gets 2 more wins but it will not change my projection of them for a 4 seed.

I just don't see how you can compare Iowa State and A&M resumes, and glance over their Quad 3 loss. That should be the deciding factor IMO.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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Games that i think still matter:

Alabama / Florida - winner will be my last #1 seed, loser is my 1st 2 seed.

Memphis today and tomorrow, A win today keeps them a 7, a loss and they are an 8. A loss in either game moves the current last team in (Xavier) out.

Finals tonight and Ivy tomorrow to determine who are the actual teams that slot in but their seed lines are pretty much determined.

I do not believe the ACC Big 12, SEC or Big 10 finals will matter. MWC/Big West will only matter for the winner getting the auto bid and loser being out.

I would feel more nervous if Maryland gets 2 more wins but it will not change my projection of them for a 4 seed.

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So it us or Iowa State for final 3 seed?

aginlakeway said:

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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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Games that i think still matter:

Alabama / Florida - winner will be my last #1 seed, loser is my 1st 2 seed.

Memphis today and tomorrow, A win today keeps them a 7, a loss and they are an 8. A loss in either game moves the current last team in (Xavier) out.

Finals tonight and Ivy tomorrow to determine who are the actual teams that slot in but their seed lines are pretty much determined.

I do not believe the ACC Big 12, SEC or Big 10 finals will matter. MWC/Big West will only matter for the winner getting the auto bid and loser being out.

I would feel more nervous if Maryland gets 2 more wins but it will not change my projection of them for a 4 seed.

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So it us or Iowa State for final 3 seed?

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I feel very confident A&M> Iowa State.

If we are a 3 seed tomorrow then I feel confident that the conference tournaments carry very little weight, but if we fall to a 4 then I'll think that they still hold at least some weight for upper seeds

For Pod locations, for those looking to book hotels/flights with 24 hour cancellation....

I would put the chances of each at:

Denver 75%
Seattle 15%
Wichita - 5%
Providence 4%
All other sites - cumulative 1% (would really only be possible if we are a 5 seed)

Top 4 seed lines by region

East - Duke, Florida/Bama loser, Wisconsin, Arizona
Midwest - Florida/Bama Winner, Michigan State, Kentucky, Iowa State
South - Auburn, St. John's, Texas Tech, Maryland
West - Houston, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Oregon

Captain Clarence Oveur said:

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AGDAD14 said:

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I'm no Colley or Lunardi… I don't how the Committee will do it, but the Ags will be bracketed to play tu early, with the winner playing Bama in the second weekend. TV executives never pass up a state of Texas vs state of Alabama sports narrative. They will also create a Duke & Kentucky scenario.

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As stated before, we can't play Texas until the Elite Eight. We've played them three times already.

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Understood… like I said "I don't know how the Committee will do it…"

Is this "3-time" thing a rule or just a guideline? I don't profess to be an expert.

Also, I have now heard Sankey reference twice the letter he sent to all the SEC BB coaches not to complain about their seeding, location, or match-ups. It's almost like he knows something is going to happen, and knowing our past history, he's talking directly to Aggieland. We'll just have to wait and see who gets screwed. But, I'm not going to be surprised if it's the Fightin' Texas Aggies.

Thank you!

Teams that cant shoot free throws, (but with decent records), are usually 6 seeds or lower…so, just be ready for that. You're welcome.

AGDAD14 said:

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Thank you!

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Here's the rule per NCAA:

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2025-01-16/how-field-68-di-mens-teams-picked-march-madness-each-season

ShotOver said:

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Teams that cant shoot free throws, (but with decent records), are usually 6 seeds or lower…so, just be ready for that. You're welcome.

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Be ready for what?

bobinator said:

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I'd love to see the data that backs this up. Imagine the committee "yeah these guys have 9 q1 wins and no losses below the top 80… but they can't shoot free throws… so 6 at best for sure."

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No data. Just a ridiculous statement. We're a 3 or maybe a 4.

LouisvilleAg said:

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bobinator said:

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Do we think these guys still actually fill this thing out by hand or is there some kind of program they just plug the seed list into? Surely it's the latter right?

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If you watch the videos from the link Colleyville posted to me, especially the 3rd video, it shows a program they use. They didn't define it, but I am sure someone can name it.

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Palantir AIP?

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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With that, my top 4 protected seed lines are now locked in and I am able to start the bracketing process.

Top 16 with their pod locations

1) Auburn - Lexington
2) Duke - Raleigh
3) Houston - Wichita
4) Florida/ Alabama Winner (Florida in Raleigh, Bama in Lexington regardless of result)
5) Florida / Alabama Loser
6) Tennessee - Cleveland
7) Michigan State - Cleveland
8) St. John's - Providence
9) Texas Tech - Wichita
10) Kentucky - Milwaukee
11) Wisconsin - Milwaukee
12) Texas A&M - Denver
13) Iowa State - Denver
14) Maryland - Providence
15) Arizona - Seattle
16) Oregon- Seattle

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I will challenge this later tonight. Currently doing yard work at the vacation house to get it ready for a hot tub. I am sure as hell not doing it next weekend.

After briefly glancing at the selection process (rule), it seems as the conferences get larger and get multiple digit teams in the tournament, at some point they will have to "relax" the principles, as they already do for certain situations. It won't happen this year. Also, I would say a principle is closer to a guideline, than a rule. Again, thank you for sharing! You and Colleyville keep up the great work.

If your brackets are correct I would hate to be in the Midwest region