Odds to win the South Region

1 Auburn +105
2 Michigan State +470
3 Iowa State +500
4 A&M +1200 (Branding)
8 Louisville +1800
6 Ole Miss +2000
7 Marquette +2200
5 Michigan +2300
8 Creighton +3200
11 UNC + 4600
12 UC San Diego +5500
10 New Mexico +7500
13 Yale +15000
11 San Diego State +18000
16 St. Francis +25000
16 Alabama State +25000
15 Bryant +25000
14 Lipscomb +25000

Dang you'd win 25 grand if you put 100 on St Francis winning the regional

threeanout said:

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By far, the closest point spread of all the 4 vs 13 matchups.

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Purdue is also -7.5 in their 4 vs 13 at MGM.

I kind of expect that line to go down.

I expect it to go up a little.

mikesyracuse1 said:

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Opening Consensus Line
Aggies -7.5
Total is 141.5

Here we go!

Alot of basketball media jumping on the Yale bandwagon. Shut'em Up and Just Win!

See ya in Denver! Survive and advance.

Mikesyracuse1

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I think this is primarily because everyone wants to say they called the upset. Happens every tournament season, especially with first round games. We just need to take care of business and let the upset predictors focus on other games.

PJYoung said:

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That is a very interesting shot chart for Yale. I like the fact that they don't shoot the corner three and that so many of their outside shots are within a narrow range as it should make our defensive rotations more effective.

I think that point spread will slightly increase by game day.

PJYoung said:

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I like this chart. Very informative.

It shows we take WAY too many 3's for a team that isn't very good from 3.

#1 team in the South region at shot attempts from behind the backboard!

Eh, not sure it shows that. Our 3pt rate is in the 200's so we don't really shoot that many. Also we're also terrible at twos. The expected value of our two point shots is better than the expected value of our three point shots but just barely (.96 to .93) and I imagine we rebound a much higher rate of our three point shots.

Booma94 said:

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PJYoung said:

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I like this chart. Very informative.

It shows we take WAY too many 3's for a team that isn't very good from 3.

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It doesn't really. What that mainly shows is we take more 3's than other Division 1 teams from more than a step beyond the three point line. Very few of our hexes are on the 3 point line. (and again, keep in mind, the hexes are areas of the floor where we shoot more relative to other D1 teams, not where we shoot more from relative to all of our own shots, although this would theoretically be similar). We're willing to get up longer three's because we'll rebound it and put up another shot under the goal. Teams that are actually living and dying by the three try to generate more open looks to a shooter standing on the line.

Booma94 said:

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PJYoung said:

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I like this chart. Very informative.

It shows we take WAY too many 3's for a team that isn't very good from 3.

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I think 3s are a good shot for our offense. Long rebounds and more cracks at the shot. Buzz talks about predictable shots and he's right, as long as our rebounders are in position we have a good chance to have a positive possession.

Michigan's is by far the most similar to ours, which is interesting considering, how different they actually are from us in style just looking at the various efficiency's.

I agree except for Solo and Carter. I'd rather Taylor shoot it from the jump circle than either of those two take any more threes.

bobinator said:

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I agree except for Solo and Carter. I'd rather Taylor shoot it from the jump circle than either of those two take any more threes.

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Except Carter seems to be kind of clutch with threes late in games. Not sure what that's about.

Especially if they're closely guarded. Maybe he's too open most of the time. We should send someone out to contest maybe.

t - cam said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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threeanout said:

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By far, the closest point spread of all the 4 vs 13 matchups.

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Purdue is also -7.5 in their 4 vs 13 at MGM.

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Oops, probably just wanted to complain.

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In your defense, Purdue opened at 10.5 and quickly dropped to 7.5 and is back up to 8.5 while we have been 7.5 every time I have looked at it.