Offseason style thoughts

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bobinator
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1:12p, 3/25/25
AG
Didn't want this to get buried in the other more emotional threads about off-court stuff, JJxvi brought up whether people think the game has passed Buzz by. I don't think the game has passed him by, and I also don't really think the actual on-the-court product was that much of an issue though there are some things I wish we did differently.

But this this next iteration of Aggie Basketball under Buzz is going to be fascinating. There are a few trends in college basketball that are pretty obvious, and if we're going to compete we're going to need to change the way we play somewhat.

  • The game is more more efficient offensively every year. Of the top 20 teams in offensive efficiency, all of them but Iowa made the tournament and 11 of them are still playing including 13 of the top 15, and one of the ones not still playing lost to the one of the other ones that is. Defense can get you to the tournament, but elite teams have elite offenses. Half of the Torvik top 20 have defenses that aren't in the top 20, but only four have offenses that aren't.
  • I absolutely love Wade Taylor, all time great, love his jersey in the rafters. But he did lock us into a certain style of play, especially defensively. Do we see a roster that is more flexible in playing style?
  • Teams are getting better at, and shooting more, three pointers. Right now a team shooting 35% from 3 would rank #118 and almost 300 teams shoot more than 20 3s a game. 5 years ago when they first moved the three point line back shooting 35% would rank #89 and only 240 teams shot more than 20 3s a game. Now those aren't seismic shifts, but it is a trend for just 5 years of data.

But the real question is really a chicken or the egg. Do we think Buzz is going to keep playing this style, and hit the portal looking for guys that fit it, or is he going to just get the best players he can get and figure out the style later? For the last several cycles it's been the former, but was that because he liked the core of Taylor, Garcia, Coleman, etc?
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zgolfz85
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1:16p, 3/25/25
AG
I'll copy paste what I just posted on the other thread…I'm as curious as all get out which path he takes going forward…I really hope it's not this current type roster/system 2.0. It's too limiting. It's Iowa football.

"
I don't necessarily agree or disagree, but we said the same about Jimbo….and the stubbornness and unwillingness to adapt offensively ultimately crushed him. I could argue that buzz has become too entrenched in the analytics and on specific metrics like offensive rebounding, but could also counter argue that he did that because it was the hand he was dealt personnel wise and the system had to be adapted to that roster. That's why we're all so curious to see what he rolls out moving forward. I personally hope he doesn't deal himself another hand of grit only can't create their own shot just drive the lane and hope for the best guys again…"
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zgolfz85
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1:20p, 3/25/25
AG
More so than in football, a defense first system in basketball scares me. You're simply going to run into a team that has an above their average shooting night and if you can't ratchet up the offense when need be, then you can't catch up (more often than not, I know we did against OU and Ole Miss). In football, a shut down defense can make it nearly impossible to get off quality passes…you just can't prevent a team from taking shots and if those first shots are going in…
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JJxvi
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1:23p, 3/25/25
AG
I brought this up in some other thread, but if you look at the Torvik pages for 2017, 2018, 2019 Virginia Tech and Texas A&M teams, the way the offensive style is reflected in the stats for the last 6 years is very much a "Texas A&M" style trend and not a "Buzz Williams" style which I thought was fascinating. I'm not really sure what we will see coming out of a total roster makeover.

Offensive rebound rate has been Texas A&M's best ranked of the four offensive factor's every single season since 2014 when we were very bad (that offseason would see a staff shakeup from John Reese and Glynn Cyprien for Rick Stansbury and Amir Abdur-Rahim) except in 2020 and 2023 when Free Throw Rate happened to eclipse very high OR%'s.
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bobinator
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In reply to JJxvi • 1:29p, 3/25/25
AG
Some of that late Kennedy era stuff was just personnel though more than an intentional style choice. You could put Tyler Davis and Robert Williams in any system and they're suddenly going to become really good at offensive rebounding.
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JJxvi
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In reply to bobinator • 1:37p, 3/25/25
AG
bobinator said:
Some of that late Kennedy era stuff was just personnel though more than an intentional style choice. You could put Tyler Davis and Robert Williams in any system and they're suddenly going to become really good at offensive rebounding.
Well, in the case of 2019 (45th in OR%) you need to replace "Tyler Davis and Robert Williams" with "Josh Nebo and Christian Mekowulu"

Buzz Williams outside of his A&M career has only ever coached one team better at offensive rebounding than Billy Kennedy's 2019 team, and that was 2013 at Marquette
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bobinator
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In reply to JJxvi • 1:40p, 3/25/25
AG
Yeah that's why I said "some." But Nebo was a really good offensive rebounder too. But that's also why we weren't quite as good at it that year as we were in the others.

But there was definitely a style shift in 2023 where we became much more focused on offensive rebounding. It's one thing to be consistently pretty good at it but to be top five nationally three years running and the absolute best at it in back to back years is pretty wild.
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JJxvi
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1:54p, 3/25/25
AG
As someone who focuses a lot on analytics, I think having someone who is flexible and smart enough to find returns in the margins in unorthodox ways is a big positive. It also implies someone who can see other ways to bake the pie if he doesnt have the same ingredients rather than someone who can only do it one way. Its a similar kind of talent as someone who can just "draw up a play" but unfortunately just less visible to a typical fan.

I actually didn't know that this is what we were getting with Buzz until after he'd been here.
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bobinator
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In reply to JJxvi • 1:59p, 3/25/25
AG
Yeah, there's good and bad there though at times. Like Prop Joe points out, the margins don't matter as much if we're awful at one of the core tenets of the game. I could stand to be 20th in offensive rebounding percentage if we weren't 314th in effective fg%.

I could also understand it more if our recruiting absolutely sucked. Like if the situation was we were going to have the least talented roster in the league every year and we needed to find some kind of alternative way of playing the game to up our chances of winning games then I could understand that too.

But really our recruiting has been fine overall. We're signing guys ranked between 100-150 and which is about our typical sweet spot. We've pulled some really highly sought after guys out of the portal.
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Proposition Joe
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2:00p, 3/25/25
Yeah his approach absolutely changed when he got to A&M. From his early press conferences, it seemed like we were getting the Marquette/VTech style coach that was going to refine his approach with analytics and I was super excited about that.

Instead it seemed like we got a full shift into hyper-analyzing on analytics and honestly felt like he determined he *could* win this way ("to hell with taking/making good shots, just assault them on the boards for second chances and an improved effective FG%") and leaned completely into it.

Obviously I don't know for sure, but judging by the type of person he has shown to be I think winning in this unique/eccentric way appealed to him. I think he liked the "how is this A&M team winning even though they are so bad at shooting?".

I think we're all hoping now that this roster/project has moved on, that we'll get a reset and a new or at least improved approach.
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AggieCrew44
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2:02p, 3/25/25
AG
I don't think he really leaned into this until middle of last season when we had that losing streak. They list Marble and had to re-invent themselves. Just turned out that Andy, Coleman, solo and Carter are all really good rebounders for their size

I'll be shocked if the next wave plays like that
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epozehl
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2:02p, 3/25/25
AG
I'd love to see the athletic department get creative, assuming Buzz and his staff are open to it, and learn from Nick Saban and hire consultants to improve efficiencies.

For example Fran McCaffery. Hire him as an "offensive consultant" since his offenses at Iowa were typically towards the top, statistically. He might not been amazing as a head coach at Iowa, yet bring him in for a fresh perspective on offense. Plus it might help broaden the recruiting reach.

That said, it seems like our AD is trying to cut costs and not add costs. However, I do think this would add value.
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zgolfz85
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In reply to bobinator • 2:04p, 3/25/25
AG
bobinator said:
Yeah, there's good and bad there though at times. Like Prop Joe points out, the margins don't matter as much if we're awful at one of the core tenets of the game. I could stand to be 20th in offensive rebounding percentage if we weren't 314th in effective fg%.

I could also understand it more if our recruiting absolutely sucked. Like if the situation was we were going to have the least talented roster in the league every year and we needed to find some kind of alternative way of playing the game to up our chances of winning games then I could understand that too.

But really our recruiting has been fine overall. We're signing guys ranked between 100-150 and which is about our typical sweet spot. We've pulled some really highly sought after guys out of the portal.
spot on. It's the kind of metric you laser focus on only when you have to, and usually after a coaching change when you're just trying to string together wins however you can with a leftovers roster....not when you have one of the most experienced/talented rosters you ever have.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to AggieCrew44 • 2:04p, 3/25/25
AggieCrew44 said:
I don't think he really leaned into this until middle of last season when we had that losing streak. They list Marble and had to re-invent themselves. Just turned out that Andy, Coleman, solo and Carter are all really good rebounders for their size.

I forget sometimes that we lost Marble in the fashion that we did, so I'll hope that was the reasoning behind the shift -- but I think having another big in Marble simply would have had him doing the same thing.
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bobinator
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 2:09p, 3/25/25
AG
I think it was partially Marble and also just partially Buzz thought it would be easier to get really good at offensive rebounding than get significantly better shooting the ball.
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Proposition Joe
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2:13p, 3/25/25
In '21-'22 we were #36 in FTA, #47 in ORB.
In '22-'23 we were #3 in FTA, #5 in ORB.
In '23-'24 we were #8 in FTA, #1 in ORB.
In '24-'25 we were #8 in FTA, #1 in ORB.

During those years we were the following in shooting %:

#148
#240
#338
#307

You can't look at those stats over four seasons and not believe that this was a concentrated approach. The guy decided the analytical way to win revolved around getting to the free throw line and second-chance opportunities.

And he's actually not wrong. But it can't be ONLY that.

That's why it's so difficult to gauge where we are going forward. If he continues to do the above, we're going to continue to be Rock Fight U and a Bubble/1st-Weekend team ceiling.

If he keeps that same approach but is willing to get a assistant with some offensive prowess and maybe lean into a shooter or two that may not necessarily fit "his mold"... then this program could be come something pretty special. Live I've always said, he can make a great team elite... he just needs help making a good team great.
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AggieCrew44
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2:14p, 3/25/25
AG
I do think it's funny that the last two seasons everyone has complained about our offense (and rightfully so) but both tourney losses offense wasn't the problem. If anything the offense down the stretch of last season was awesome when boots, Wade, and manny were all playing at a high level. We practically shredded Nebraska and pretty sure had the high offensive output of any team Houston played all season
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85AustinAg
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In reply to AggieCrew44 • 2:21p, 3/25/25
AG
The 6 minute offensive drought vs Michigan this year and no offense down the stretch was as much to blame as our inability to get stops.
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zgolfz85
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In reply to AggieCrew44 • 2:21p, 3/25/25
AG
AggieCrew44 said:
I do think it's funny that the last two seasons everyone has complained about our offense (and rightfully so) but both tourney losses offense wasn't the problem. If anything the offense down the stretch of last season was awesome when boots, Wade, and manny were all playing at a high level. We practically shredded Nebraska and pretty sure had the high offensive output of any team Houston played all season
but offense was the problem after we gave up the 10 point lead. Defense was also the problem, but we struggled to keep up and it took a couple of lucky bounces to get within 2 again.

And, any game when we needed 3s to catch up, yeah right. We had an otherworldly 3 shooting performance from Andy in the SECT and against UM.....and 2 clutch 3s from Jace....freak stuff we hadn't seen all season
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AggieCrew44
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In reply to 85AustinAg • 2:22p, 3/25/25
AG
85AustinAg said:
The 6 minute offensive drought vs Michigan this year and no offense down the stretch was as much to blame as our inability to get stops.
We let them score on like 13 of 15 possessions. It was a drought but also not why we lost
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JJxvi
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2:22p, 3/25/25
AG
It should also be mentioned that Buzz drastically improved the team's free throw rate also, not just "all offensive rebounding" but two of the four factors.

Edit-Prop Joe mentioned it.
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bobinator
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In reply to AggieCrew44 • 2:24p, 3/25/25
AG
We definitely had some style component issues on both sides of the ball.

On defense the entire house of cards was built on the idea that we'd rather give up three pointers than free throws, but instead this season we gave up a lot of both. Our foul rate in big games was just way too high to play this kind of defensive style.

I do think we're definitely going to see a change on defense though. Trying to hide Wade defensively was a problem a lot of the time. Even when he's playing well on defense, which isn't all that often, he's still small and not exactly super athletic. And Phelps started the year great on defense but had too many lapses towards the end, and that's on top of Carter, Hefner and Wilcher.

I also think we need to play a defense that keeps Payne by the basket next season.
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bobinator
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In reply to JJxvi • 2:27p, 3/25/25
AG
Free throw rate is a complicated one because you'd also get fouled a lot more if you were better at shooting the ball, and trying to draw fouls can lead to turnovers. That was another issue this year is we turned the ball over way too much.
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Proposition Joe
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2:38p, 3/25/25
I think the FT stats just absolutely hammers home where overall failure lies in his offensive approach. You can lean into an analytic that the data shows is key to winning ball games (getting to the free throw line).

But when your free throw make rate ranks:

#219
#39
#247
#283


Then what have you accomplished? It's like studying all night long and sleeping through the exam.

Ditto elite offensive rebounding (second chances). What do they matter if you are worst in the nation in shooting?
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bobinator
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 2:50p, 3/25/25
AG
This one is pretty complicated I think.

For one, no matter how bad you are at free throws, they're still a much better shot than any shot on the floor. Even for the worst team in college basketball has an expected value of 1.18 points per trip to the line.

Second, like 90% of the teams in the country are between 65% and 80% at the line. 65% would land you at #353 and 80% would land you at #7. Now over the course of the season that makes a big difference but if you're going to the line 25 times a game that's the difference of just three points. And that's between the elite of the elite and the absolute worst of the worst.

Third, is free throw shooting something that you can actively make your team better at in practice or not at this level? I don't know, but how much time and effort is it worth to improve your overall FT% by a couple of percentage points? I think that's a factor too.

I'm not disagreeing with you here, to be clear, but I think there's some complicating factors in what exactly you can control and improve when it comes to FTs.

But what annoys me about the FT thing is that Buzz obviously thinks free throws are the best shot in basketball but yet time and time again this year we fouled entirely too much in big games defensively. For a football analogy it's like building your whole offense around screen plays but not being able to defend them.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to bobinator • 2:57p, 3/25/25
I get what you're saying about "does a percentage point here or there really matter?"

And if you're just average then no, it really probably doesn't.

But rankings of #148, #240, #338 and #307 in Shooting %.

#219, #39, #247, #283 in Free Throw %.


That's not average or just below average. That's impressively bad over a 4 year stint (which most choose to only judge Buzz by since 2020 and 2021 didn't count).

As you said with the defensive approach - it's simply not congruent. Either every little advantage counts, or it doesn't.

Honestly I simply can't wrap my head around how his team can be so bad at both, and there's not a world where I believe it's a talent issue -- it's a coaching issue.
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bobinator
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3:08p, 3/25/25
AG
I mean it definitely matters on the FG percentage, I was just talking specifically about free throws. A small percent change in your shooting percentage definitely matters because the volume of shots is so different.

But I can believe we're that bad at shooting. I do think some of it is a style choice in that we'd rather take a shot than turn it over, but we also just have some bad shooters, and we don't help them out by being good at generating looks for our better ones.

But that's also where I'm hopeful we're going to see a style shift offensively now that Taylor is gone (and to a lesser degree Manny and Phelps.)

I think Buzz leaned into the way Wade (and Boots to some degree) needs to play because he was our best player. Not only did we play the way he needs to play, but we pulled guys like Phelps out of the portal to play alongside him.

Now all of those guys are gone and we can think about doing something different. We've just absolutely got to get better at spacing and shooting on offense or we're going to get buried by where college basketball is heading.
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zooguy96
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3:25p, 3/25/25
AG
Basketball Jimbo ain't changing. He is what he is.
I know a lot about a little, and a little about a lot.
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Aston04
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In reply to bobinator • 3:26p, 3/25/25
AG
bobinator said:
Yeah, there's good and bad there though at times. Like Prop Joe points out, the margins don't matter as much if we're awful at one of the core tenets of the game. I could stand to be 20th in offensive rebounding percentage if we weren't 314th in effective fg%.

I could also understand it more if our recruiting absolutely sucked. Like if the situation was we were going to have the least talented roster in the league every year and we needed to find some kind of alternative way of playing the game to up our chances of winning games then I could understand that too.

But really our recruiting has been fine overall. We're signing guys ranked between 100-150 and which is about our typical sweet spot. We've pulled some really highly sought after guys out of the portal.


A 100-150 high school kid is prob worth 200-250 a few years back.. Some teams are barely bothering to recruit high school players
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JJxvi
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In reply to zooguy96 • 3:32p, 3/25/25
AG
zooguy96 said:
Basketball Jimbo ain't changing. He is what he is.
Ooh, this post again. Maybe this one will answer me this time.

Can you name all the ways that Buzz Williams is even remotely similar to Jimbo Fisher? Thanks in advance.
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JJxvi
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In reply to Aston04 • 3:33p, 3/25/25
AG
Aston04 said:
bobinator said:
Yeah, there's good and bad there though at times. Like Prop Joe points out, the margins don't matter as much if we're awful at one of the core tenets of the game. I could stand to be 20th in offensive rebounding percentage if we weren't 314th in effective fg%.

I could also understand it more if our recruiting absolutely sucked. Like if the situation was we were going to have the least talented roster in the league every year and we needed to find some kind of alternative way of playing the game to up our chances of winning games then I could understand that too.

But really our recruiting has been fine overall. We're signing guys ranked between 100-150 and which is about our typical sweet spot. We've pulled some really highly sought after guys out of the portal.


A 100-150 high school kid is prob worth 200-250 a few years back.. Some teams are barely bothering to recruit high school players
Yeah but we're also getting Zhuric Phelps's and Pharrel Payne's (and Andersson Garcia's and Henry Coleman's)
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TjgtAg08
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 3:47p, 3/25/25
AG
Proposition Joe said:
In '21-'22 we were #36 in FTA, #47 in ORB.
In '22-'23 we were #3 in FTA, #5 in ORB.
In '23-'24 we were #8 in FTA, #1 in ORB.
In '24-'25 we were #8 in FTA, #1 in ORB.

During those years we were the following in shooting %:

#148
#240
#338
#307

You can't look at those stats over four seasons and not believe that this was a concentrated approach. The guy decided the analytical way to win revolved around getting to the free throw line and second-chance opportunities.

And he's actually not wrong. But it can't be ONLY that.

That's why it's so difficult to gauge where we are going forward. If he continues to do the above, we're going to continue to be Rock Fight U and a Bubble/1st-Weekend team ceiling.

If he keeps that same approach but is willing to get a assistant with some offensive prowess and maybe lean into a shooter or two that may not necessarily fit "his mold"... then this program could be come something pretty special. Live I've always said, he can make a great team elite... he just needs help making a good team great.
I guess the "chicken or the egg" question is, why did he decide to go with that approach? Was it because thats what he wanted to do, and he found the guys that could do it? Or was it because in 22-23 he realized what he had couldn't shoot, and so they went the offensive rebounding approach?

Or maybe it was a hybrid during recruiting of "at this point, I can only get these certain type of guys, and so we are going to have to play a certain way."

The guys that pop up as serious options for us through the portal and we land will be very telling for the "style" we are going to utilize.
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greg.w.h
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4:15p, 3/25/25
AG
My guess is Buzz believes playing excellent offense makes it too easy to win…and is therefore cheating. Same with screens and offensively talented players…too easy.
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BuzzFan24
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5:24p, 3/25/25
The strategy of get as many FTAs as possible is widely used and highly effective. I don't see this going anyway. It's simple math.

Even a FT shooting scrub at 60% give you a higher PPP than the most elite offenses in the country.

I don't see the OREB or FT strategy going anywhere but, I do think recruiting shooters along with offensive minded guys will be a top priority.
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PatAg
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In reply to bobinator • 6:05p, 3/25/25
AG
bobinator said:
We definitely had some style component issues on both sides of the ball.

On defense the entire house of cards was built on the idea that we'd rather give up three pointers than free throws, but instead this season we gave up a lot of both. Our foul rate in big games was just way too high to play this kind of defensive style.

I do think we're definitely going to see a change on defense though. Trying to hide Wade defensively was a problem a lot of the time. Even when he's playing well on defense, which isn't all that often, he's still small and not exactly super athletic. And Phelps started the year great on defense but had too many lapses towards the end, and that's on top of Carter, Hefner and Wilcher.

I also think we need to play a defense that keeps Payne by the basket next season.
He's also going to have to learn to challenge under control, because we will eventually play teams that can force him away from the basket (also the NBA, if that is a goal of his)
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