"The line" - What we need to make the NCAA Tournament

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bobinator
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9:44a, 11/3/25
AG
Don't know if this is helpful to anyone else or not but I always kind of go into each season and rank the games from hardest to easiest to look at where "the line" is for the NCAA Tournament. It kind of helps me keep things in perspective as the season goes. But basically for every game you lose below the line, you need to win one above the line and if you do that you should be good to go for the Tournament.

So for me, this year, it looks like: (Torvik ranking) Games ranked by Torvik's projected line, italics games we're currently projected as underdogs)

(14) - at Vanderbilt (+10.8)
(18) - at Alabama (+9.9)
(15) - at Tennessee (+9.2)
(21) - at Arkansas (+8.8)
(30) - at Auburn (+7.4)
(31) - at Georgia (+7.3)
(36) - Texas (+5.8)
(42) - at Oklahoma (+5.3)
(43) - at Oklahoma State (L)
(58) - at LSU (+3.1)
(9) - Florida (+2.9)
--- The line is here ---
(11) - Kentucky (+2.4)
(76) - at Pitt (+.7)
(61) - vs SMU (-1.3)
(33) - Missouri (-1.4)
(36) - Texas (-2.3)
(42) - Oklahoma (-3.2)
(74) - vs Florida State (-3.2)
(44) - Ole Miss (-3.4)
(48) - Mississippi State (-3.9)
(58) - LSU (-5.3)
(83) - UCF (L)
(101) - South Carolina (-10)
(173) - Montana (-18.2) (W)
(248) - Texas Southern (W)
(242) - Manhattan (-22.6)
(262) - Northwestern State (W)
(253) - Jacksonville (-21.8)
(316) - East Texas A&M (-26.6)
(341) - Prairie View (-30.4)
(365) - Mississippi Valley St. (-38.7)
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taylorswift13_
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9:51a, 11/3/25
So that line has us needing to go 8-10 in conference which I think is manageable… 1 non conference loss is going to be more difficult but we'll find out a lot about this team against Oklahoma State
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taylorswift13_
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9:52a, 11/3/25
Note to self: root for Mississippi Valley State to boost our RPI
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bobinator
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9:54a, 11/3/25
AG
Yeah, it's actually kinda easy this year because most of the projections have us right on the in/out line so it's almost just exactly splitting the games we're favored in and the games we're not.

like I did this using Torvik and the only projected result that's on the wrong side of the line is that his model has us as a slight favorite against Kentucky.
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Method Man
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In reply to taylorswift13_ • 10:08a, 11/3/25
taylorswift13_ said:
Note to self: root for Mississippi Valley State to boost our RPI

I'll be rooting for them 365
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fatdad84ag
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12:24p, 11/3/25
AG
Wow MVSU is dead last at 365. New Haven jumped to D1 this year to give us the 365 total teams. They get to play UConn today
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halfastros81
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10:53a, 11/4/25
AG
Okie St should be a good early season barometer reading.

Looking at the torvik ratings for just the sec, how
Come the projected records only show 30
Games for some teams. Isn't 31 typical?
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bobinator
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In reply to halfastros81 • 11:02a, 11/4/25
AG
Yeah, I'm half expecting us to get killed.
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bobinator
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In reply to halfastros81 • 11:02a, 11/4/25
AG
They won't have all the games if they're in tournaments because they don't know the opponent yet.
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Topher17
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12:37p, 11/4/25
AG
Interested to see if we can stay afloat in the non-con, specifically before we get Mgbako back. Our non-con schedule is not going to get us into the tournament, but it can surely keep us out if we don't take care of business. Find a way to drop 0 or 1 before conference and we'll be in good shape, similar to OU last year.
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bobinator
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In reply to Topher17 • 1:06p, 11/4/25
AG
I said this in the summer but I think people are killing our non-con too much. It's not particularly good but it's also not really that bad. Right now KenPom has it projected as #168. Again that's not awesome but it's not as catastrophic as some of those slates Buzz put together early on. Starting in 2020 and not counting 2021 our non-con SOS on KenPom was 278, 308, 253.

Like OU last year had a non-con SOS of 317.
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Topher17
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1:54p, 11/4/25
AG
Admittedly we were spoiled by the last couple of years schedules. It does help that we're playing most of the power conference schools either neutral or on the road. We're also avoiding playing too many teams in the 300+ range. I just don't think you can expect to be a tournament team if you're losing to the likes of FSU or Pitt. Obviously it matters to who and where you lose, just in my mind I think we need to get through non-con with no more than 2 losses to be on track.

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bobinator
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In reply to Topher17 • 1:58p, 11/4/25
AG
Yeah, maybe three if they're all very close and one of them isn't at home.

We also just need to avoid getting killed. In 2023 everyone kept talking about Wofford but what was also bringing us down is that we got absolutely killed a few times by mediocre teams like Boise and Colorado.
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Topher17
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2:02p, 11/4/25
AG
I anticipate our variances being truly wild throughout the season. We're going to blow some teams completely out of the water and then turn around and get blown out ourselves.
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bobinator
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2:57p, 11/18/25
AG
Updated today. Notable update: we have a new hardest game on the schedule. Based on the hamsters on Torvik's wheels the toughest game on our schedule now projects to be Vandy.
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halfastros81
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In reply to bobinator • 12:22p, 11/19/25
AG
There will be plenty of tough games imo. Just want to see continuous improvement and maybe a bump from Mgbako. The good news is… there's plenty to improve on. The bad news is… there's plenty to improve on.

Not unexpected of course .
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bobinator
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In reply to halfastros81 • 12:36p, 11/19/25
AG
Yeah the hope has always been that we get hot later at some point.

It's just about staying within shouting distance until then.

In the 2023 season we went into league play with a NET of about 100 and climbed all the way back. I think if we can get to SEC play with a NET in the 60s or 70s we'll have a decent shot at making a move.
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Deputy Travis Junior
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6:31p, 11/19/25
Unless this team drastically improves before conference play starts (not impossible but unlikely), we don't need to worry about the NIT, much less the NCAA tournament.

This team may compete for worst team in the SEC. UCF is predicted to be in the bottom 2-3 in the Big 12 and they thrashed us on our own court.
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