Some interesting nerd stuff

2,835 Views | 29 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by TxAg76
bobinator
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AG
Going through some of the advanced stats websites this morning and just thought I'd share a few things that jumped out:

Assist rate: We currently sit #1 in the country in the percentage of our baskets that are assisted (an insane 71.4%). We're obviously a better passing team than we've been any time lately but this is also due to:

Three point rate: We're #15 in the percentage of our shots that are threes (50.8%). Not only that, we've really heated up from beyond the arc and have jumped all the way up to #41 in 3pt% at 38%. I was getting a little worried that we weren't going to be as good from beyond the arc as we hoped we'd be but we've done a better job of taking good shots, making the extra pass the find the more open player, and having the right guys (namely Dominguez and not Agee) taking the shots. Speaking of Dominguez...

En Fuego: Despite a Defensive BPR (per EvanMiya) that's the worst on the team other than Isaacs, Dominguez has the second highest overall BPR thanks to his absolutely nuclear three point shooting lately. His numbers are even better on Torvik's PORPAGATU!, which is basically a fancy basketball version of an offensive WAR in which Dominguez sits as one of the top 75 players in college basketball. I figured Dominguez was going to take a couple of months to adjust to college basketball but it seems like he's found his footing. Even if being a three point sniper is all he does, just having someone on the floor that the defense can't leave (though Florida State continued to for some reason...) should open things up for everyone else.

Lane's hidden value: If someone asked you who our best players have been so far, I think most people say something like Dominguez, obviously, then Marcus Hill and Rashaun Agee even though Agee has been absolutely ice cold beyond the arc or maybe Rylan Griffen. Yet, by EvanMiya's BPR our most valuable isn't any of these guys, it's Jacari Lane. Lane has a great assist rate at 33.7%, which is second on the team to Holloway, but Holloway turns the ball over at a much higher rate. I don't expect this number to hold all season, but it's interesting at this point, the data is pretty clear that our offense is better when Lane is on the floor.

Turnover bailout: Our defense is improving a bit across the board, with a profile that now looks more mediocre that truly bad, but it's buoyed into "actually kinda good" territory because we currently sit #9 in the country in turnover percentage. Now, this number being THIS high is due in large part to Texas southern and Mississippi Valley State apparently not knowing how wide the court is, but even without those two games it would be pretty high. We've forced a turnover percentage of at least 20% in every game except Oklahoma State.

Anything else jumping out to y'all?
halfastros81
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AG
Good stuff . Totally agree Lane is the guy we need on the court more than anyone in crunch time. Really good defender despite him not being long and things just seem calmer to me offensively when he's on the court as well.

A few requests since you have access to advanced stats.


1) do you have anything that shows trends on rebounding? My feeling is it's getting better but that's all it is really. Nothing to back it up.

2) could you post a season to date +/- for our roster ?
PJYoung
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Some Luke Tweets:







bobinator
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I know you know this, but for any casuals lurking, rebounding is a fairly complicated stat that gets brought up in simple terms too often.

Pure rebounding, at least to me, is a borderline worthless stat. There's too many variables not reflected in the numbers. Take the MVSU game where we got outrebounded. Well we got outrebounded as much because we took more shots than they did (and we shot 50 free throws to their 19) as it also just being a bad rebounding game.

So what we're really talking about is rebounding percentage. Forget pure rebounds, what percentage of missed shots are you pulling down, and even then you have to look at offensive and defensive rebounding separately.

We have made a big jump in offensive rebounding percentage the last couple of games. We had a big first game at 38%, but after that we hovered between 20% and 27% until we had a 34.4% game against MVSU and then a backbreaking 48.6% against Florida State. This was mostly due to Agee who pulled down 7 offensive rebounds on his own. Spoiler alert, if we shoot 44% from 3 and rebound half our misses we're going to be tough to beat.

Now on the flip side, our defensive rebounding has actually gotten worse the last couple of games. We let MVSU rebound 40% of their misses which is awful. That's our first number of the season by quite a bit, and the second worst one was Florida State. Now, neither of those are particularly surprising because they were blowouts and the opponent, especially Florida State, couldn't shoot at all. In a blowout game you probably want to be conservative on going for rebounds because you really don't want to foul. And sure enough, the Florida State game was our lowest Free Throw Rate of the season defensively.
bobinator
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Quote:

2) could you post a season to date +/- for our roster ?

This doesn't really exist anywhere because the NCAA is weird about its stats. CBB reference has a "Box Plus Minus" which is basically how many points per 100 possessions a given player is worth compared to an average player on an average team. That looks about how you'd expect, with Dominguez way out in front of anyone else at 11.4, followed by Griffen and Holloway and 7.2 and 6.5.

Evan Miya has his BPR which I referenced earlier. That formula really likes Jacari Lane. That stat is a little flawed at this point though because it doesn't account for volume of minutes or who those minutes came against. As more and more data accumulates that becomes less important, but right now it will have some wonky stuff. For example it says our fourth most valuable player is Federiko but that's obviously not true.
greg.w.h
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AG
Net net is NET still is problematic. And arguably as meaningless right now as SoS is for football at the END of the regular season…
CactusThomas
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Great thread
bobinator
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CactusThomas said:

Great thread

It's really a fascinating season to watch the numbers because of how radically different our style is now.

Both Buzz and Bucky are big analytics guys, but it's interesting how they get there. Buzz either doesn't think he can recruit shooters, doesn't think he can coach them, or thinks shooting is so unpredictable on any given night that you're better off focusing on other things that you can control.

So under Buzz I'd boil our approach down to "we don't think we can make a lot of shots, but we think we can annoy you so much that you can't either and we're going to drag this game into the mud so neither of us take very many."

Bucky could not be further the other way, it's more like "if we both take 100 shots I bet we make more of them and we'll even let you have some easy ones to find out."
PJYoung
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Quote:

you're better off focusing on other things that you can control.

I 100% think it's this with Buzz.
awrollins
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Great stuff. Thanks bob
bobinator
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I think it's that combined with the recruiting thing. He knows his style isn't exactly going to attract sharpshooters, and he thinks the time is better spent working on things that are easier to improve from a time/effort standpoint than shooting is.

Plus I agree with Prop Joe said at one point which is that it appeals to Buzz's ego to win in such a weird way.
aggiez03
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PJYoung said:

Some Luke Tweets:







Things have changed a bit.

Fuego would be 4th on last year's team in 3PTM already...




By next Monday, he may be 2nd....


Compare his 3 Pt Shooting average and season total points as well...




Shocking how few points some of our guys scored last year.

Zhu had 2 more makes in OVER DOUBLE the attempts.
Heff & CJ Wilcher season point total will be surpassed before Christmas.
Jace will be outscored by tomorrow night or Friday at the latest.
bobinator
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What's wild is we actually shot threes slightly BETTER last year than the year before.

Dominguez would be two threes away from being second on that team.

I'm not sure any team has ever adjusted the style sliders as far as we have in one season.
Aston04
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aggiez03 said:

PJYoung said:

Some Luke Tweets:







Things have changed a bit.

Fuego would be 4th on last year's team in 3PTM already...




By next Monday, he may be 2nd....


Compare his 3 Pt Shooting average and season total points as well...




Shocking how few points some of our guys scored last year.

Zhu had 2 more makes in OVER DOUBLE the attempts.
Heff & CJ Wilcher season point total will be surpassed before Christmas.
Jace will be outscored by tomorrow night or Friday at the latest.

Frustrating to think about because Buzz whiffed so bad filling some role player spots. Could have been a whole different season last year.
JJxvi
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bobinator said:

Bucky could not be further the other way, it's more like "if we both take 100 shots I bet we make more of them and we'll even let you have some easy ones to find out."


Analytically, its not about how easy the shot is, because its not about shots, its about possession. If you force enough risky actions over the entire possession before the shot ever gets taken, those events add up. If the other team gets the ball in at 4.5 seconds, has to pass out of a trap, make a cross court pass, but then gets a layup that was a very risky possession, its just that the risk is measured in turnover percentage instead of shooting percentage
bobinator
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Well yeah, we're obviously not trying to give up easy shots, that's just a byproduct of the system that they're going to happen sometimes. That was also an incredible oversimplification of Bucky's approach to the game.

Like some folks keep comparing what we're doing on defense to the old "40 minutes of hell" teams but that's not really what we're going for either.
JJxvi
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Also, i thought I was the designated analytics thread starter?
CactusThomas
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I like this nerd stuff better than the Scandinavian sci fi film review
Aldo the Apache
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halfastros81
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Particularly interesting that the closest team to us to date is Alabama which was kind of expected with offensive styles so similar but defensive approach is different wrt full court pressure by A&M.
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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based on what i have seen this team will go as far as their defense will take them. i do thibk most see improvement in that area over the last few games. this team is an elite shooting team which means we are never truly out of a game. i am excited to see how we manipulate minutes with Mbako back. our guard rotation is the best i have seen at texas a&m. we have 6 guards that can play.
bobinator
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

based on what i have seen this team will go as far as their defense will take them. i do thibk most see improvement in that area over the last few games. this team is an elite shooting team which means we are never truly out of a game. i am excited to see how we manipulate minutes with Mbako back. our guard rotation is the best i have seen at texas a&m. we have 6 guards that can play.


I think any improvement in our defense raises our floor but we're probably going to go as far as our three point shooting will take us.
AggByMarriage
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The Assists stat is shocking

In the last home game, at one point we had 10 assists and 1 turnover that is insane. Then, in a few minutes we were at 12 assists and 5 turnovers. Seems like the guys lose focus. Still GREAT!! Would rather see an assist, than an offensive rebound.
The other shocker to me is the free throws percentage. So much better than last year.

Love the stats Thanks Bobinator. The box score tells the story.
AggieEP
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Bob knows this because I beat this drum repeatedly last year. We had games with like 4 total assists last year. We made every possession almost impossible because we played almost exclusively 1 on 2 (help defender is my 2 here).

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know that basketball is much easier when you take shots when you are not guarded vs. guarded by multiple opponents. Luckily for us we now have a coach and a system that emphasizes finding good open shots by sharing the ball.
bobinator
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It was also equal parts scheme and ability. We had maybe the worst passing team I've ever seen last year outside of Taylor and sometimes Garcia. I think someone other than Taylor passed it to a shooter in rhythm like twice all season.
CapCity12thMan
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Haven't we learned from the Buzz years that stats are for losers
PJYoung
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BQ_90
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who's this Haslametrics idiot and why does he hate us
chicknfingrboi
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This thread is another reminder that analytics and thoughtful discussion are in the basketball forum

and that the football threads are an armageddon that feeds off (terrible) vibes

Facts > Feelings
TxAg76
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chicknfingrboi said:

This thread is another reminder that analytics and thoughtful discussion are in the basketball forum

and that the football threads are an armageddon that feeds off (terrible) vibes

Facts > Feelings


terrible "vibes"??

football is full of people that throw tantrums anytime they don't get want they want, like a toddler.
and when they try to instill their logic, it's over-reactive, hyper-negative, and all over the place....like a combination of being really pissed off but with dimentia and tourrets
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