Not to be pessimistic, but how much of our success is due to our competition thus far? With a win on Saturday, we would have beaten the 5 worst teams in the SEC. We still haven't played a team that is in the top half of the current SEC standings. I'm just curious how this will translate when we play the top teams.
Trying to Properly Calculate My Expectations
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Last: 22 days ago by EliteZags
Look at it this way, we were picked to be the fourth worst team, so the fact that we beat the "five worst teams" already means we're ahead of where most people thought we'd be.
How will it translate against the best teams? Who knows? But those teams aren't invincible. Alabama and Vandy lost to Texas, Arkansas got wiped off the floor by Auburn, Georgia lost to Ole Miss who might be the second worst team in the league, Florida lost to Mizzou who lost to LSU AND Ole Miss.
The teams that are probably better than us have already lost to teams worse than us.
Yeah, we're not going to go 17-1 in the SEC or anything. Everyone knows some losses are coming. We might even get blasted once or twice. It happens.
But the truth is that right now, by every metrics system out there, we're projected to win enough games to make the NCAA Tournament, and even if we get in as the very last team, that would be an absolutely incredible accomplishment for Bucky's first season.
How will it translate against the best teams? Who knows? But those teams aren't invincible. Alabama and Vandy lost to Texas, Arkansas got wiped off the floor by Auburn, Georgia lost to Ole Miss who might be the second worst team in the league, Florida lost to Mizzou who lost to LSU AND Ole Miss.
The teams that are probably better than us have already lost to teams worse than us.
Yeah, we're not going to go 17-1 in the SEC or anything. Everyone knows some losses are coming. We might even get blasted once or twice. It happens.
But the truth is that right now, by every metrics system out there, we're projected to win enough games to make the NCAA Tournament, and even if we get in as the very last team, that would be an absolutely incredible accomplishment for Bucky's first season.
IMO we've hit house money phase. Rest of the season is gravy. So enjoy the hell outta it win or lose.
I'm greedy man, I want to make it so bad. I don't even care if we're in the First Four.
bobinator said:
I'm greedy man, I want to make it so bad. I don't even care if we're in the First Four.
well i think we're pretty damn close right now. I was talking more about we've exceeding any expectations most of us had.
bobinator said:
I'm greedy man, I want to make it so bad. I don't even care if we're in the First Four.
This
We've played well enough thus far to make it: let's keep it up!
Bad or even mediocre teams lose to other bad teams. You've believed too much of that crap from football season. It's less true there (although it takes a really good team to go 7-1/11-1 in the sec) but basketball it's really hard to beat all the bad teams.
We were a really really good football team and we look to be a pretty damn good basketball team too. Enjoy it.
We were a really really good football team and we look to be a pretty damn good basketball team too. Enjoy it.
We're really 6-0 (Tennesee - that was our ball before overtime).
But I digress.
But I digress.
Just get to the tournament - that's all that matters!
Apparently, you hadn't watched any of our games this year… or you're just trying to troll the board…
This is where I've tried to calm down in my old age lol. I used to jump all over posts like these, but I can actually see it now. Someone isn't really super into college basketball, but college football ended Monday, the NFL is winding down, and then they hear we beat Texas and we're 5-1 and want to know are we really that good or what's the deal? I've tried to give people the benefit of the doubt.
bobinator said:
I'm greedy man, I want to make it so bad. I don't even care if we're in the First Four.
Agreed, but I really want us to make it for Agee, as he's never made the Dance before. He and the other seniors (or grads) know this is their last chance to do something special. Having such a mature team should help us survive one or two tough future losses without coming unhinged.
Don't have any.
Then you'll be happy with the wins.
Then you'll be happy with the wins.
The team is very fun to watch and much better than anyone could have expected so far . We're fans so we're going to want to project and predict and that's all great but I know I'm not going to get caught up too much in how far they can go . I'm going to mostly just enjoy the ride . Tourney bid is looking probable at this point but anything could happen.
My main take away is we have a really really good coach with a very embraceable and exciting style and the future of A & M basketball looks very bright .
My main take away is we have a really really good coach with a very embraceable and exciting style and the future of A & M basketball looks very bright .
wcarterdoolittle said:
Not to be pessimistic, but how much of our success is due to our competition thus far? With a win on Saturday, we would have beaten the 5 worst teams in the SEC. We still haven't played a team that is in the top half of the current SEC standings. I'm just curious how this will translate when we play the top teams.
Who cares who we have played. We have taken care of business. If you win on Saturday you are at 6 wins with 11 games remaining and you have given yourself some room for error and if you finish 4-7 in those final 11 then you finish at 10-8 and should be in the tourney. Saturday is big.
bobinator said:
This is where I've tried to calm down in my old age lol. I used to jump all over posts like these, but I can actually see it now. Someone isn't really super into college basketball, but college football ended Monday, the NFL is winding down, and then they hear we beat Texas and we're 5-1 and want to know are we really that good or what's the deal? I've tried to give people the benefit of the doubt.
remember most of our fans are football fans and idiot football fans at that.
So then they bring that knowledge to basketball and apply all their football knowledge to basketball
Still a small sample size too. Standings are bunched. Many teams are one reversed result away from a significant move up the standings.
Texas lost two games by a combined 9 points in the last week. If they win both, they're tied for 2nd instead of 12th.
Texas lost two games by a combined 9 points in the last week. If they win both, they're tied for 2nd instead of 12th.
The sec is also pretty deep this year, and the teams we've beat aren't necessarily bad teams. Bob already gave a lot of examples of "bad" sec teams beating teams at the top of the standings. The bottom of the sec is better than the bottom of probably any other conference, so every win means something.
Yeah, Texas and Auburn both project as bubble teams and we beat them on their own courts and Tennessee is easily in the field and we should have beaten them on theirs as well.
We are 5-1 in SEC play. If we go 6-6 in our last 12 SEC games, we will finish 11-7, which would match last season's record and exceed preseason expectations.
BQ_90 said:
IMO we've hit house money phase. Rest of the season is gravy. So enjoy the hell outta it win or lose.
This is how it feels to me right now. The good stuff feels really fun and the bad stuff is pretty easily shrugged off. What a relieving place to be as an Aggie.
I've enjoyed this season so much. Because we know this is the ground floor of this program. So its fun brand of ball to watch and even if we give up easy buckets or blow a lead or beat the **** outta somebody, its all fun to watch.
Bucky hit the nail on the head in his press conference this week. He wants this to be fun.
Bucky hit the nail on the head in his press conference this week. He wants this to be fun.
Quote:
So its fun brand of ball to watch and even if we give up easy buckets or blow a lead or beat the **** outta somebody, its all fun to watch.
Bucky hit the nail on the head in his press conference this week. He wants this to be fun.
This hit me during the game the other night. I don't know exactly how to phrase it, but like when an opponent went on a mini run against a Buzz team it was annoying, where now it feels like "whatever, no biggie, we can make that up."
And that crowd the other night had some good juice in the first half. Reed was poppin a bit when we had those backcourt turnovers.
my buddy at the game went to the can, he can back and said what the hell happened, how are we up 15 or whatever it was. It was like 2 point game when he went to the can
The old guy next to me literally started giggling when we had that sequence where we trapped Hubbard and he just threw it into space and then Clemence kicked it to Lane for a quick three.
Personally speaking my expectation is that I'd rather we beat "bad" teams than lose to them so expectation met.
I feel like if we can win 70% of the games against the bottom half of the league and 40% against the top half, then we will have done enough to make the tournament. We're off to a good start in winning 100% of the games against the bottom half so far. This should give us a little wiggle room against the top half. Incredible season so far.
I'm liking all this maroon kool-aid y'all are drinking. I'm more of a let's take it one game at a time kind of person. It feels a lot better what's happening in College Station as compared to College Park let me put it that way.
No way did I think we'd be where we are. Bucky is for real! And I'm being cautious because he's proving it game by game, but I think he's one of the best coaches in this league.
What stands out the most is that we've already established a team identity this early in the season that's something you really have to appreciate.
Also worth saying: I don't think Bucky would've come here if Buzz didn't have our program where it was.
No way did I think we'd be where we are. Bucky is for real! And I'm being cautious because he's proving it game by game, but I think he's one of the best coaches in this league.
What stands out the most is that we've already established a team identity this early in the season that's something you really have to appreciate.
Also worth saying: I don't think Bucky would've come here if Buzz didn't have our program where it was.
We are tied for first. Quit talking about reasonable expectations you losers!!!
wcarterdoolittle said:
Not to be pessimistic, but how much of our success is due to our competition thus far? With a win on Saturday, we would have beaten the 5 worst teams in the SEC. We still haven't played a team that is in the top half of the current SEC standings. I'm just curious how this will translate when we play the top teams.
Basketball has solid analytical metrics and lots of games compared to football to make comparisons between teams, especially non-conference games. Based on those metrics we are somewhere between the 30th-40th best team in the country so far and between the 6th-9th best team in the SEC which is the best conference in the country but still roughly equivalent to the Big Ten and Big 12 this year.
Hardworking, Unselfish, Fearless
It is true that our NCAA tournament fate will ultimately depend on how many good wins we have and making sure we avoid bad losses. However, only a couple of the SEC games we played so far would have even been considered bad losses, and two of our wins were excellent quality (Quad-1, with one of those even being of the highest quality, Quad 1-A)
Hardworking, Unselfish, Fearless
Yeah we have two more hazardous games, tomorrow and the Ole Miss game.
Maybe the away Oklahoma game if they just give up.
Maybe the away Oklahoma game if they just give up.
BQ_90 said:
my buddy at the game went to the can, he can back and said what the hell happened, how are we up 15 or whatever it was. It was like 2 point game when he went to the can
It can escalate quickly, as seen at Auburn, a cut a 16 pt lead down to 4 in about 30 seconds.
Basically, if he is asking "Are we really a first place type SEC team?" then the answer is No, and he is correct to be "pessimistic"
But if he is asking "Are we actually good?" then the answer is Yes we are pretty good.
But if he is asking "Are we actually good?" then the answer is Yes we are pretty good.
Hardworking, Unselfish, Fearless
Although, according to Torvik, if you only look at games played since 1/1/2026 we would rank 22nd and 3rd in the SEC after only Florida and Arkansas. Auburn would be 4th above labama, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. So that's interesting...
Hardworking, Unselfish, Fearless
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