If we can hold Condon to zero points I will feel good about the game.

ColoradoMooseHerd said:

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bobinator said:

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I think Florida is legit good. Basically everyone else can beat each other on a given night until you get to USC, LSU, Ole Miss and State

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Did not expect them to play this way today.

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They cant shoot

3-2

TombstoneTex said:

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Chat GPT gives us closes losses on the road and close wins at home vs FL and MO. I think we go:

GA: win pulling away late
Bama: close loss
FL: blowout loss
MO: Win
Vandy: close win

3-2 book it.

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Flo-rida just lost at home to Aub.

Any of the above is a coin toss. It just depends on if we are shooting decent, grabbing at least 35-40% of the rebounds and limit our turnovers 10 or under. If we can do the above rebound and turnover margins listed, we can win any game against anybody.

3-2

3-2

2-3 and you can start to feel safe about a bid, 3-2 and you start to ask if we can climb up to a 4 seed.

bobinator said:

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Our metrics have changed so much in a couple weeks, we'd probably be favored over Georgia on a neutral court.

I mean honestly who knows. Maybe we just keep cooking.

I just think three of these games are extremely tough and that we're probably due for a bad game or two. We've just been nuclear hot the last five halves of basketball.

Feels like we're due for a bad game and a bad game against any of these teams but Mizzou probably means a loss.

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4-1

I'm not impressed w anyone other than Florida

If you can go 3-3 in the next 6 that would be huge

I think we can go 4-1. I think Bama will be the biggest challenge.

Watching tonight's games in Tuscaloosa and Gainsville, both Florida and Alabama look beatable. But both teams will have size on us so they will be tough battles.

This team is literally getting better every game.

I say 3-2....at worst.

3-2.
I called 11-3 in fb.

Georgia
Alabama
Florida
Missouri
Vanderbilt

I'm thinking 2-3 or 3-2

4-1

Win at home and steal one on the road.

Optimism abounds! 4-1

2-3 is my guess

WestTexAg12 said:

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CapCityAg89 said:

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Expect 1-4. Really happy with 2-3. Thrilled with 3-2.

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Keep going. What are your emotions at 4-1 and 5-0?

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I prefer ecstatic and euphoric.

I'm thinking 2 or 3 games.

I'm thinking we win 2 or 3 games.

I predict 2-3, but think 3-2 is more likely than 1-4.

If we go 2-3, we are right where we need to be to make it solidly into the dance. 3-2 and that's gravy. 1-4 and its not over but we will need to steal a road game or 2 somewhere.

Focus on protecting Reed, that's all we need to do.

My guess on probability. Probably a little biased to the high side.

0-5 3%
1-4 10%
2-3 30%
3-2 25%
4-1 20%
5-0 7%

I would estimate the optimistic probabilities to look something like this:

Wins, Percentage
0, 4.52%
1, 23.19%
2, 35.49%
3, 25.94%
4, 9.37%
5, 1.49%

I was using Grok to try and see the expected distribution of what our final record might end up being. If you look at Torvik, which is most bullish on us, then its already very hard to see us finishing worse than 10-8 if their ratings are close to the truth. Based on the probability currently shown for each game, it is already >95% chance we finish 4-7 or better. .

It is amazing all that ai can do today. The amount of time I have wasted calculating meaningless stats over the years that ai could do in a moment.

5-0

caleblyn

If you go by Caleblyn stats and percentages, then we are performing as expected and if we upset Vandy we will be great. Does not mean we have to be happy about it, but keeping it in perspective