A note on bracketology (waiting two weeks)

6,662 Views | 48 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by LouisvilleAg
bobinator
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11:23a, 1/27/26
AG
For the ones of people who read these every year, I was going to do my first TexAgs bracketology of the season this week on our bye date, but digging into the numbers it doesn't make much sense to do it right now because our "range of plausible outcomes" is so wide and will be so determined based on this next stretch of games.

By "range of plausible outcomes" I mean the range of things that you could easily see happening. There's of course always the remote possibility that crazy stuff happens like you win out or lose out, but what's most likely to happen?

Right now I think it's just as possible that we come out of this stretch more worried about trying to get above the 7-10 seed line as it worrying about whether we're going to make the field at all. So trying to break down who are the teams to watch around us and that sort of thing just seems pointless right now.

If you're thinking "surely it's pointless in late January every year" I'd say not really. Last year at this time we had already beaten several high level teams (Ohio State, Creighton, Texas Tech, Purdue) and had already lost to several others (Oregon, Alabama, Kentucky). So in late January our range of plausible outcomes was fairly narrow by comparison.
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Pichael Thompson
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11:35a, 1/27/26
Ags are 3 seed


Book it
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Heisenberg01
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In reply to bobinator • 11:35a, 1/27/26
AG
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bobinator
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1:39p, 1/27/26
AG
BTW for people that do like Aggie-centric bracketologies, anything in particular that would make you more likely to read it? Questions you want answered? Etc?
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Method Man
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2:02p, 1/27/26
I'd like to know the one stat that's most correlated with us winning a game. I could figure it out buy I have a 56K modem.
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bobinator
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In reply to Method Man • 2:10p, 1/27/26
AG
Points scored vs points allowed
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Proposition Joe
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2:11p, 1/27/26
Modified date on my calendar to check back in.
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bobinator
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 2:14p, 1/27/26
AG
I did send out an alert to the old #GetBetter newsletter that you should have gotten. Maybe it didn't go through.
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DTP02
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2:22p, 1/27/26
AG
This is going to put a real damper on my "bobinator bracketology release date" party I had planned for Sat night.

Would have been nice if we'd gotten a heads up before I got the invitations engraved. That money is non refundable.
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bobinator
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2:44p, 1/27/26
AG
BTW would any of y'all be interested in a TexAgs bracket matrix? I did this once a long time ago but was thinking about bringing it back. Basically once a week everyone would submit their ranking of teams 1-68 and I'd compile the numbers, use the bracketing principles to slot in the teams, and see how we do?

When we did it way back whenever that was we actually ended up in the top third of brackets using the scoring system BracketMatrix uses.
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PJYoung
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3:19p, 1/27/26
AG
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bobinator
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In reply to PJYoung • 3:33p, 1/27/26
AG
It is pretty wild how much our odds went up on a week where we played two of the worst teams in the league. Torvik has us at 97.4% now. That's better odds than Kentucky or Georgia.
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taylorswift13_
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In reply to bobinator • 3:55p, 1/27/26
AG
bobinator said:
BTW would any of y'all be interested in a TexAgs bracket matrix? I did this once a long time ago but was thinking about bringing it back. Basically once a week everyone would submit their ranking of teams 1-68 and I'd compile the numbers, use the bracketing principles to slot in the teams, and see how we do?

When we did it way back whenever that was we actually ended up in the top third of brackets using the scoring system BracketMatrix uses.
lets do this
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One Eyed Reveille
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In reply to bobinator • 4:07p, 1/27/26
AG
bobinator said:
BTW for people that do like Aggie-centric bracketologies, anything in particular that would make you more likely to read it? Questions you want answered? Etc?


Listed reasons why Basketball Ole Sarge would beat their basketball mascot.
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bobinator
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In reply to One Eyed Reveille • 4:09p, 1/27/26
AG
Let's be honest basketball sarge seems more like an early Buzz-era guy
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El Mero Mero 14
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4:11p, 1/27/26
I'm not sure I like the bye week hitting when we've seemingly found our stride. Time will tell but I hope we continue our torrid pace. Massive stretch ahead of us, so many potential outcomes.
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bobinator
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In reply to El Mero Mero 14 • 4:17p, 1/27/26
AG
I like it in a macro sense, get Agee especially a break before we hit this crucial run of games.

But it does feel like we're cooking and need to get back on the court.
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El Mero Mero 14
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In reply to bobinator • 4:22p, 1/27/26
bobinator said:
I like it in a macro sense, get Agee especially a break before we hit this crucial run of games.

But it does feel like we're cooking and need to get back on the court.

Yeah, if there's a guy that really needs it, it's definitely Agee. Just feels like lightning in a bottle with the amount of confidence the team is playing with. I know we have to hit a wall eventually, but when? How will they overcome when they do? I feel like there's still so much to learn about this team.
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Complete Idiot
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5:35p, 1/27/26
Doesn't this broad range of potential outcomes in fact make this topic MORE compelling, more URGENTLY discussable, leading to increased thread engagement and to an increase in subscriptions to your BOBINATORIAL Newsletter?

The newsletter is great btw, recommend to all.
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BasketballCoach2015
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In reply to bobinator • 5:39p, 1/27/26
AG
That would actually be awesome Bob! Let me know how I can help.
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BasketballCoach2015
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 5:41p, 1/27/26
AG
How do I get the newsletter?
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Divining Rod
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6:07p, 1/27/26
Bob- here's one thing you could do in the meantime that may not be too time-consuming but would be of real interest to me:

Compare the RPI to the NET. I saw an interview where one of the NET developers/proponent? was saying that RPI was strictly "results" oriented while NET was results and "predictive". He then said how well it worked in its first year (last year) as it had 14 of the top teams that made the Sweet 16.

It would be interesting (if you could find the data) to see how the RPI did with respect to final RPI before the tourney and which teams made the Sweet 16, maybe for the past 2 or 3 years or so.

I do wonder how good was the RPI and how good is the NET, and is it much improvement.

Thanks!
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bobinator
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In reply to BasketballCoach2015 • 6:18p, 1/27/26
AG
This has been a running joke that I started for a few years that Buzz had a secret newsletter where he'd share the story behind his various bits
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jeremy
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In reply to DTP02 • 6:22p, 1/27/26
AG
DTP02 said:
This is going to put a real damper on my "bobinator bracketology release date" party I had planned for Sat night.

Would have been nice if we'd gotten a heads up before I got the invitations engraved. That money is non refundable.


Crap. I was bringing fondue! Is this off now!?

Thanks for nothing, Bob!
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to bobinator • 6:28p, 1/27/26
bobinator said:
This has been a running joke that I started for a few years that Buzz had a secret newsletter where he'd share the story behind his various bits

I didn't even recall that, I just pictured people PM'ing you about a nonexistent newletter and it made me laugh.

But perhaps enough people PM you that it prompts you to actually start a newsletter and it becomes financial lucrative, in which case I'm owed a comission.
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Mr.Milkshake
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8:46p, 1/27/26
Come on. Call your shot. Believe.
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bobinator
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In reply to Mr.Milkshake • 8:52p, 1/27/26
AG
I'd say 7 seed if I was predicting today
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EliteZags
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10:47p, 1/27/26
AG
perhaps, tho last 7 seed we 'earned' took finishing 15-3 with 7 Q1 wins (6 ranked plus @UF) 3 top10 and a run to the SECT finals
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Method Man
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In reply to bobinator • 10:54p, 1/27/26
bobinator said:
Points scored vs points allowed


I will find you.
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PJYoung
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11:12a, 1/28/26
AG
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bobinator
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In reply to PJYoung • 11:22a, 1/28/26
AG
Fittingly, Texas has basically been the anti-us from a scheduling standpoint. They've been all over the place from a results standpoint, losing at home to us and State but winning at Alabama and beating Vandy.

Their schedule now eases up which is nice in one way but also means they can't really afford any more bad games. After Auburn they need to win their next five games probably because they have one more pretty wild stretch to close the season.
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Gigemags382
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11:34a, 1/28/26
AG
When Torvik says % chance to make the tournament, does it mean:

1) If things go as the model predicts (e.g. A&M finishes 22-9), there's a 97.4% chance A&M would make the tournament with that kind of resume/metrics

OR

2) If the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, A&M would make the tournament in 97.4% of the simulations

#1 seems realistic to me. #2 seems outlandish. #2 would mean that there's only a 1 in 38 chance that we flop bad enough from here on out to be left out of the tourney? I don't see how our position right now could be that safe.
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Gigemags382
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 11:40a, 1/28/26
AG
But on 2nd look I guess it really is #2. I used the TeamCast, and if we only beat Missouri, Miss, tu, and Kentucky the rest of the way (which is low probability to begin with), Torvik still gives us an 84.8% chance to make the tourney. So Torvik just really likes our chances. Even lose most of the rest of our games and it thinks we're in.
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bobinator
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 12:10p, 1/28/26
AG
Yeah it's the second. If we finished 22-9 there's a 100% chance we'd make the tournament.

Have to remember though that this model is a bunch of hamsters on wheels trying to mimic what a room full of humans might do, and those people talk themselves into some wild things every year.

Like I still think us being a 7 seed in 2023 was more absurd than us being left out completely in 2022. On Selection Sunday we had a NET of 19 and wins over teams ranked 2 and 5. But for whatever reason they decided that was the year we were going to punish teams for bad losses in non-con.
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nelsonagholor
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In reply to bobinator • 12:31p, 1/28/26
AG
Weren't they trying to set up a second round matchup of us and 2 seed tu that year?
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