Hosting Speculation

13,293 Views | 119 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by tjack16
AggieFromArkansas
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:26a, 5/13/19
We are currently sitting at #13 in the RPI. Our only remaining regular season opponent has a winning percentage of 727. Even in the tournament, we should be playing RPI boosting, or at least neutral, opponents.

For the sake of argument, let's say we win one this weekend and one in Hoover. Our RPI on selection Sunday ends up at say 11. What are the chances we host in that scenario?
Reply Quote
Chester
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AggieFromArkansas • 9:39a, 5/13/19
AG
Win the series against the hogs and we will definitely host.
Chester
Reply Quote
32
Wicked Good Ag
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:50a, 5/13/19
Anything after the top 8 national seeds will be a mystery until conference tourney is done.

Hell look at Softball. Alabama wins the league loses in championship game and Florida gets a higher seed in the NCAA due to that one 2-1 game. The two best teams in the country may honestly be set up to play in a super regional.

Stanford OSU series will be big in baseball in terms of national seed vs host

I think we win 2 of next four and teams like Ole Miss LSU Auburn etc falter we jump them in the system not to mention the BDF as well
Reply Quote
caleblyn
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Chester • 9:52a, 5/13/19
Definitely is a BIG word! Sweep Arkansas and the Tournament and I believe I would be willing to say we host!
Reply Quote
2
dermdoc
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Chester • 9:55a, 5/13/19
AG
chester said:
Win the series against the hogs and we will definitely host.


Agree.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Reply Quote
11
BoozingAg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:59a, 5/13/19
I think it would take a sweep vs Arkansas to "definitely" host. 2/3 "probably" gets us a host. A lot of it is going to depend on the year to year shifting goal posts of the committees criteria, especially when it comes to how many SEC West teams they think should host.
Reply Quote
6
1 edit
ensign_beedrill
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:21a, 5/13/19
AG
I say it every year but I don't think conference tournaments play any part in the selection committee's decisions (beyond allocating auto-bids).
Reply Quote
13
evanpd16
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:22a, 5/13/19
AG
I think the big problem in the way is LSU. They have the series win over us and the committee would love any way to get them to host because they draw lots of cash. If LSU goes 1-2 against auburn and tennessee wins the series against ole miss, i think us taking one against arky and winning at least one in the SECT gets us to a host
Reply Quote
7
Chester
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to caleblyn • 10:24a, 5/13/19
AG
caleblyn said:
Definitely is a BIG word! Sweep Arkansas and the Tournament and I believe I would be willing to say we host!
Probably be a national seed if we do that. I still think 2 out of 3 against Arkansas gets us a regional hosting spot. It's all there for the taking.
Chester
Reply Quote
2
dermdoc
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ensign_beedrill • 10:25a, 5/13/19
AG
ensign_beedrill said:
I say it every year but I don't think conference tournaments play any part in the selection committee's decisions (beyond allocating auto-bids).
Totally agree. And that is why we do not go. They are basically useless unless a team that was not going to make the NCAA tourney makes a deep run. Just like in college basketball the tourney field is set and seeded prior to the conference tourneys and only change if there are numerous upsets. Win the Arky series and we host even if we lose first round of the SEC tourney. Lose the Arky series and we might get some help if we went to the finals or won the SEC tourney.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Reply Quote
2
1 edit
W
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to evanpd16 • 10:46a, 5/13/19
AG
evanpd16 said:
I think the big problem in the way is LSU. They have the series win over us and the committee would love any way to get them to host because they draw lots of cash. If LSU goes 1-2 against auburn and tennessee wins the series against ole miss, i think us taking one against arky and winning at least one in the SECT gets us to a host
yes, this is the big issue. How does A&M get ahead of both LSU and Ole Miss in the pecking order...if both teams win their final series and finish with 17 conference wins and ahead of the Ags in the West standings?

Ole Miss is RPI #28, but if the Rebels win 2 road games at #10 Tennessee, they will move very close to the top 20 and finish 17-13 in the league with a sweep of A&M on their resume.

likewise if #22 LSU wins 2 vs. #19 Auburn, the Tigers will finish 17-13 and ahead of A&M in the West standings and with RPI inside the top 20
Reply Quote
3
W
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:52a, 5/13/19
AG
there is also a problem with #20 North Carolina (36-15). The Tar Heels are 16-11 in the ACC.

if UNC wins its final series vs. N.C. State at home, they will finish 18-12 in the ACC with a top 20 RPI and a 1st or 2nd place finish in the Coastal division.

UNC has series wins vs. #12 Miami, #46 Duke, and #47 Virginia. A very solid resume.

not sure A&M would get picked ahead of UNC
Reply Quote
tjack16
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:55a, 5/13/19
AG
In my opinion this is how we host:

1. either win the series this weekend and win a game in Hoover (going 0-done does not look good)
2. win 1 game against Arkansas, and then make deep run in Hoover (3 more wins)
3. win the SEC tournament and we definitely host
Reply Quote
4
BoozingAg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to tjack16 • 11:19a, 5/13/19
tjholley16 said:
In my opinion this is how we host:

1. either win the series this weekend and win a game in Hoover (going 0-done does not look good)
2. win 1 game against Arkansas, and then make deep run in Hoover (3 more wins)
3. win the SEC tournament and we definitely host
There's no way we host without beating Arkansas and it's likely going to take a sweep. Every year people here way over estimate the value the committee puts on conference tournaments as well as the value of winning them. If we win 2/3 vs Arkansas and THEN make a run in the SECT, THEN it might make a difference.
Reply Quote
8
kevmiller
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:24a, 5/13/19
1-5 against LSU/Ole Miss sure doesn't help our case
Reply Quote
11
AgEng06
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to kevmiller • 12:25p, 5/13/19
AG
kevmiller said:
1-5 against LSU/Ole Miss sure doesn't help our case
Yeah, but we're 3-3 against LSU/Vandy...
Reply Quote
15
evanpd16
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AgEng06 • 12:49p, 5/13/19
AG
AgEng06 said:
kevmiller said:
1-5 against LSU/Ole Miss sure doesn't help our case
Yeah, but we're 3-3 against LSU/Vandy...

We were 3-3 against Ole Miss/Kentucky
Reply Quote
3
twk
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BoozingAg • 1:06p, 5/13/19
AG
BoozingAg said:
tjholley16 said:
In my opinion this is how we host:

1. either win the series this weekend and win a game in Hoover (going 0-done does not look good)
2. win 1 game against Arkansas, and then make deep run in Hoover (3 more wins)
3. win the SEC tournament and we definitely host
There's no way we host without beating Arkansas and it's likely going to take a sweep. Every year people here way over estimate the value the committee puts on conference tournaments as well as the value of winning them. If we win 2/3 vs Arkansas and THEN make a run in the SECT, THEN it might make a difference.


It would not take a sweep of Arkansas to host. If we win the series 2-1, even with a first round loss at Hoover, our RPI will be in the low teens. Barring every other break going against us, that would be enough

Of course, the hard (improbable) part is beating Arkansas twice, and doing it without Lacy.
Reply Quote
5
BoozingAg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:21p, 5/13/19
It's going to depend on how much weight they put on RPI, and most the of projections have plenty of non top 16 RPI hosts. It's kind of a weird RPI year.
Reply Quote
twk
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to tjack16 • 1:30p, 5/13/19
AG
tjholley16 said:
In my opinion this is how we host:

1. either win the series this weekend and win a game in Hoover (going 0-done does not look good)
2. win 1 game against Arkansas, and then make deep run in Hoover (3 more wins)
3. win the SEC tournament and we definitely host
Winning the tournament won't get us a host bid if we get swept by Arkansas. Winning the title never matters as to hosting because host sites are determined before the championship game is over. A run to the finals wouldn't be enough.

If we win one against Arkansas, but got to Sunday in the tournament undefeated, I suppose you could hold out some hope of hosting, but it would be borderline miraculous if it happened.
Reply Quote
gemba
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:36p, 5/13/19
AG
Kendall Rogers who hates us thinks we have to win the Arkansas series and win a game or two in the tournament to host.
Reply Quote
4
greg.w.h
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:48p, 5/13/19
AG
According the D1 RPI: two wins against Arkansas puts us at 9-9-1 against 1-25 RPI assuming all of our CURRENT top 25 opponents stay in.

That's a good resume for a top 16 and within spitting distance of top 8 if we win all three (10-8-1 against top 25). RPI would go up a bit, too in the case of either two or three wins since we are 13 and Arkansas is 6 on their RPI list.
Reply Quote
1 edit
Hop
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to gemba • 1:52p, 5/13/19
AG
gemba said:
Kendall Rogers who hates us thinks we have to win the Arkansas series and win a game or two in the tournament to host.


What leads you to think Kendall hates A&M?
Reply Quote
TXAggie2011
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BoozingAg • 2:26p, 5/13/19
AG
BoozingAg said:
It's going to depend on how much weight they put on RPI, and most the of projections have plenty of non top 16 RPI hosts. It's kind of a weird RPI year.
The committee usually puts a bunch of weight on RPI and when they deviate much, its usually tied to championships.

But, it is indeed a weird year with a pretty soft "host bubble." RPI and records and what not aren't aligning as much as they normally do, which is putting more uncertainty into predicting these things.

I will say, with UNC, Oregon State, and Stanford on the ascendency, things are coming more aligned and its getting harder for A&M, Auburn, West Virginia, etc. to make their case.
Reply Quote
2
_mpaul
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to gemba • 2:28p, 5/13/19
AG
gemba said:
Kendall Rogers who hates us thinks we have to win the Arkansas series and win a game or two in the tournament to host.

Ha ha! Did I miss a joke somewhere?
Reply Quote
3
1 edit
TXAggie2011
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:31p, 5/13/19
AG
I'd pay a lot of attention to Indiana v Louisville tomorrow night.

Indiana wins that game and they may be sitting at about 24 or so in the RPI. They would enter the final weekend 1 game behind Michigan for the Big 10 championship, and with the tiebreaker in hand (I would assume; they just took 2 of 3 from Michigan.)

Indiana plays 3 at home vs. Rutgers while Michigan goes on the road vs. Nebraska.


Big contender to steal a regional in the last two weeks of the season.
Reply Quote
1
CapCityAg89
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Hop • 2:45p, 5/13/19
AG
Hop said:
gemba said:
Kendall Rogers who hates us thinks we have to win the Arkansas series and win a game or two in the tournament to host.


What leads you to think Kendall hates A&M?

I think it's a joke - Kendall supposedly hates all fan bases. It's a result of his being generally even handed and honest. Fans hate that *****
Reply Quote
5
Adam87inSA
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:52p, 5/13/19
AG
I'd feel a lot better about having a shot at winning 2 vs Arky this weekend if Asa Lacy were not suspended. Now, it would be a rather stunning upset for the Ags to win this series. All that is really standing between us and getting swept is the possibility of a gem from Doxakis.

Absent of winning at least two from Arky, we would have to go quite deep in the SECT to hope and hope the "wrong" teams around us fighting to host don't get hot.
Reply Quote
3
gemba
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Hop • 3:40p, 5/13/19
AG
Hop said:
gemba said:
Kendall Rogers who hates us thinks we have to win the Arkansas series and win a game or two in the tournament to host.


What leads you to think Kendall hates A&M?


It's a joke.

Reply Quote
1
AggieDad74
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:46p, 5/13/19
Sad to say, but Arkansas or not, our best possible hope is that a few other competitive foes stubs their proverbial toe in their their own conference tournament!

Else we get sent away somewhere rather inhospitable as some lofty hosts No. 2!

Winning, or at least placing 2nd in Hoover, is damned near mandatory!
Reply Quote
2 edits
TempleAg97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:38p, 5/13/19
AG
Just FYI, the Ags are now sitting at RPI number 12. I honestly don't see how we win the Arkansas series without Lacy but I'm not sure how we've gotten this far with this hitting so anything is possible. I think if we win the series, it's almost a lock that the Ags host.
Reply Quote
3
W
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:47p, 5/13/19
AG
it's going to be a daunting task winning the series vs. Arkansas w/o Lacy. The Razorbacks will be playing for the league and division championship.

the fewest number of runs the Hogs have scored in any conference series is 9. The second fewest is 13.

the Ags are going to have score on the order of 12 to 15 runs minimum to win the series
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
Chester
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to TempleAg97 • 10:48p, 5/13/19
AG
TempleAg97 said:
Just FYI, the Ags are now sitting at RPI number 12. I honestly don't see how we win the Arkansas series without Lacy but I'm not sure how we've gotten this far with this hitting so anything is possible. I think if we win the series, it's almost a lock that the Ags host.
Arkansas is the key to hosting, not the SEC Tournament. We beat Vanderbilt and we can beat Arkansas with or without Lacy.
Chester
Reply Quote
2
Hop
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to CapCityAg89 • 1:06a, 5/14/19
AG
CapCityAg89 said:
Hop said:
gemba said:
Kendall Rogers who hates us thinks we have to win the Arkansas series and win a game or two in the tournament to host.


What leads you to think Kendall hates A&M?

I think it's a joke - Kendall supposedly hates all fan bases. It's a result of his being generally even handed and honest. Fans hate that *****
Great story about Kendall in his younger days. He had just started GoBig12baseball.com and he was still a student at A&M. He sat with our group a lot above the visitor's dugout. There was a wild game against OSU and Tom Holliday was getting heated about something and we were on him pretty good. So that Monday, Kendall calls Holliday to get some quotes and scoop as he usually did on a Monday, and Holliday said (paraphrasing) "I saw you up there on the dugout Kendall. I don't think you are getting your weekly brief today." I think he was half-joking, but I think Kendall realized he needed to change from fan to businessman.

Reply Quote
Sandman98
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:20a, 5/14/19
AG
I have no idea how this series will play out but here is one possibility. Every team that's successful late in the season and in the post season format we're given has people rise up to make it happen. We'll either be punished by Lacy's absence or we'll be celebrating the rise of someone we didn't expect to contribute against an elite opponent. The teams with the most vivid memories are the ones that get something from an unexpected source.
Reply Quote
11
1 edit
Last Page
Page 1 of 4 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.