Prager : thoughts on if he comes back ?

13,404 Views | 56 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by AgLA06
Sq 17
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I will hang up and listen
Can he likely improve his draft position by coming back ?
Does he lose leverage if he comes back with regards to the team that drafts him next year?
ChubbyHubby
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He's gone
trouble
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AG
He gone
Aggie1205
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AG
He has more leverage against the team as a draft eligible sophomore, but if a team drafts a guy in the first 10 rounds they likely had discussed a number before the draft.
S.A. Aggie
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AG
Congrats Ryan!!
ChubbyHubby
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Aggie1205 said:

He has more leverage against the team as a draft eligible sophomore, but if a team drafts a guy in the first 10 rounds they likely had discussed a number before the draft.


Exactly, all the guys that got drafted the last two days are gone. They wouldn't waste a pick on a guy that they weren't sure is going to sign
PlanoAg98
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AG
Quote:

Round 3, Pick 81: Ryan Prager (Angels) - Slot Value: $948,600
Why would he come back? We couldn't sniff that with NIL. He was at the top of his game this year. It would be difficult for him to have a better year enough to drastically increase his draft stock.
carl spacklers hat
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PlanoAg98 said:

Quote:

Round 3, Pick 81: Ryan Prager (Angels) - Slot Value: $948,600
Why would he come back? We couldn't sniff that with NIL. He was at the top of his game this year. It would be difficult for him to have a better year enough to drastically increase his draft stock.
Serious question: at that slot value, what do you think his contract value would be? Is it a multiple of slot value, mas o menos?
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Sq 17
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I think slot value is basically signing bonus / guaranteed money.
If he makes to the show he starts making rookie money Which is significantly higher than AAA money and after several years of service he can make whatever the market will pay.
Honolulu Blue
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Angels likley (near definitely) would not have drafted Prager in the 3rd unless there was a pre-arranged number/agreement
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Sea Pony 07
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AG
No question in my mind he is gone.
RED AG 98
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AG
All but one of the ~320 drafted in the first 10 rounds last year signed. In this new shortened draft, they don't call your name unless they called you first and you agreed to their number.

He gone.
DallasAg 94
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carl spacklers hat said:

PlanoAg98 said:

Quote:

Round 3, Pick 81: Ryan Prager (Angels) - Slot Value: $948,600
Why would he come back? We couldn't sniff that with NIL. He was at the top of his game this year. It would be difficult for him to have a better year enough to drastically increase his draft stock.
Serious question: at that slot value, what do you think his contract value would be? Is it a multiple of slot value, mas o menos?
Slot Value is a recommendation for a signing bonus. He could get more, if other players take less. Each pick is assigned a value for teams to Pool their money for signings.

Once a player signs, the team has control for a long period of time.

A player at AA (where Prager *might* start) would make about $1000/wk.

Once a players is part of the Active Roster, they get minimum, which is something like $750K/yr. They are considered a Serf and will be such for 3 yrs +/- depending on service time.

Once they finish their 3 years of Serfdom, the team has an additional 3 years of control in which a player is eligible for Arbitration. Arbitration happens if a player and team can't agree on a salary for his Arb year. They go before an Arbitrator who decides which salary request is appropriate. Either the player's request... or the team's offer.

So, after 6 years +/- of playing MLB... a player can become a Free Agent and truly negotiate a contract.
OKCAGS
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Prager could Very easily work himself into a top 35 pick next year with a little development ( 3-4 mph on his fast ball and adding 10-15 pounds to his frame ). Would make a bunch more $$$ next year …. Leading a very good team to another run at a championship . Not impossible IMO .
W
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AG
plus the Angels

could try again for a different organization
EMY92
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Last year, there was 1 player taken in the first 10 rounds that didn't sign. 1 out of 300+ picks.
aggiebones
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AG
How much NIL woukd someone like Prager get?
phatty26
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He's gone!
Read the bio tgg bug wy have on him his velo has not increased since high school. He's a polished finished pitcher.
LB12Diamond
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AG
Yes

And him already recovering from one surgery. He's not going to mess around.
ensign_beedrill
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AG
twk
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ensign_beedrill said:


This. I know that there are people who don't follow this subject closely who are not aware of the changes in the last few years, so we are going to see this question every now and then. But, in the current environment, that's the way the draft is operated. The team and the player have agreed on a bonus prior to the pick being announced. Barring some kind of miscommunication or other screw up, when you hear a name called in the first 10 rounds, they are gone.
Aggie1205
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OKCAGS said:

Prager could Very easily work himself into a top 35 pick next year with a little development ( 3-4 mph on his fast ball and adding 10-15 pounds to his frame ). Would make a bunch more $$$ next year …. Leading a very good team to another run at a championship . Not impossible IMO .


Adding 3-4 MPH isn't impossible but it's very unlikely.
LOYAL AG
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AG
OKCAGS said:

Prager could Very easily work himself into a top 35 pick next year with a little development ( 3-4 mph on his fast ball and adding 10-15 pounds to his frame ). Would make a bunch more $$$ next year …. Leading a very good team to another run at a championship . Not impossible IMO .


The Pragers considered this already and if they thought that was the best decision he wouldn't have been drafted where he was. The decision has already been made to sign.
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agie95
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AG
Why do you say that?
JPK89
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agie95 said:

Why do you say that?
Because it is true....it's not like he's 15 years old.
agie95
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AG
It's not true:

Higher Velo - Baseball America on college players turning pro improve velo.

The Texas Baseball Ranch would also disagree with you.

The Athletic (paywall) Tigers Higher Velo


Players can continue to increase their velo.
catfan
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agie95 said:

It's not true:

Higher Velo - Baseball America on college players turning pro improve velo.

The Texas Baseball Ranch would also disagree with you.

The Athletic (paywall) Tigers Higher Velo


Players can continue to increase their velo.
Would you advise your kid to pass up $1 million for the chance to improve your velocity a bit more?
agie95
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AG
No where did I mention should he come back or not. I am arguing whether someone at this level can increase their velo.
Aggie1205
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agie95 said:

It's not true:

Higher Velo - Baseball America on college players turning pro improve velo.

The Texas Baseball Ranch would also disagree with you.

The Athletic (paywall) Tigers Higher Velo


Players can continue to increase their velo.


Let's clear something up, I'm not saying velocity can't be increased. Of course it can. I am saying that the chances of increasing 3-4 MPH In a single year of college are not good, and thus makes the idea of passing up a good bonus now a bad choice.

Even your non paywall article is referencing velocity increases over two years for guys who turned pro not guys staying in college for one year.

It's not like he was playing at some small program with a bad weight room and eating situation that could be holding him back either.

Plus the sooner you go pro the sooner you might make the bigs and start your service time clock.
agie95
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AG
Your previous statement said otherwise.

There are multiple ways a player can increase 3-4 mph velo in a year. The article was on players who already left college and going into the pros. Players in college are typically a year or two younger. The biggest is correct any disconnects. Whether a inverted W, forearm flyout, deacceleration issues, lower half mechanics, etc. Many players in the pros have disconnects. All of the above can decrease the rate thrown and potentially cause injuries. Another one is increase muscle. Any player in college is still pretty young and can easily add muscle.

There are plenty of college players and professionals who continue to add velo. Yes, there comes a point that x player is unlikely to add additional velo. I don't know if Prager is nearing his max and neither do you.
Aggie1205
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agie95 said:

Your previous statement said otherwise.



I was responding to a poster who mentioned Prager coming back for another year and adding 3-4 MPH to his fastball. I said that is very unlikely. What about that is wrong? Again, its not to say fastball velocity can't be increased, but the odds are greater he wouldn't be able to increase that much in one year than the odds that he would.
twk
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The real problem is having a discussion on "if he comes back," when the fact that he was drafted in the first 10 rounds 99.97% of the time means that he has agreed on a bonus and isn't coming back.
carl spacklers hat
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He gone! And everyone should be happy for him and wish him success in his next baseball chapter.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
AggieBB
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DallasAg 94 said:

carl spacklers hat said:

PlanoAg98 said:

Quote:

Round 3, Pick 81: Ryan Prager (Angels) - Slot Value: $948,600
Why would he come back? We couldn't sniff that with NIL. He was at the top of his game this year. It would be difficult for him to have a better year enough to drastically increase his draft stock.
Serious question: at that slot value, what do you think his contract value would be? Is it a multiple of slot value, mas o menos?
Slot Value is a recommendation for a signing bonus. He could get more, if other players take less. Each pick is assigned a value for teams to Pool their money for signings.

Once a player signs, the team has control for a long period of time.

A player at AA (where Prager *might* start) would make about $1000/wk.

Once a players is part of the Active Roster, they get minimum, which is something like $750K/yr. They are considered a Serf and will be such for 3 yrs +/- depending on service time.

Once they finish their 3 years of Serfdom, the team has an additional 3 years of control in which a player is eligible for Arbitration. Arbitration happens if a player and team can't agree on a salary for his Arb year. They go before an Arbitrator who decides which salary request is appropriate. Either the player's request... or the team's offer.

So, after 6 years +/- of playing MLB... a player can become a Free Agent and truly negotiate a contract.

Zero chance Prager starts out in AA
OKCAGS
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I respect your opinion, but a year and a half removed from major arm surgery ….. it is not impossible at all to add velo . Prager is probably gone and I am happy for him , but IF he did come back …. He could easily be a 1st round pick next year and double his signing bonus .
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