Looking ahead, what do we think final record and SEC record need to be to get in the field of 64, regardless of Hoover? What record for a 2 or 3 seed? Not sure we can get in the regional host conversation.

After last season .500 in SEC and minimal non-con losses would be a big step in the right direction and feeling good about a regional appearance or possible regional win.

I think we finish either 15-15 (2 seed) or 16-14 (one of the final host spots)

If I had to guess, 16-14 and #14 overall seed matched with the Georgia tech regional

Captain Pablo said:

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Last year, the SEC had three 16-win teams. Two hosted, none were top 8

The SEC had one 17-win team. They were top 8 seed

The SEC had one 14-win team, and they played in a regional

The SEC had one 13-win team, and they stayed home

I know every year is different, but this is pretty typical

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That historical benchmark is always useful to consider, but one thing people have to keep in mind is that schedule strength varies across the league. It used to be the case that this was mostly down to the divisional split, but now, with each team missing five league teams, and no geography to it, you could end up with a really easy draw where your record doesn't look as good as it historically would have, or, maybe it could be that you get a really tough draw and they say it's better than it looks.

I think we'll make it in at a little over 0.500 in conference.

Seems pretty clear we don't have the horses on the mound and usually have 2-3 guys in the batting lineup that look totally confused and devoid of any confidence. And we hit into double plays like we earn a team bonus for it. So I don't see us making a lot of postseason noise.

I think Earley then gets one more year to field a complete team that can make a post season run.

Right now I think the most likely is you get 1 in each series and win the Auburn series. If you get swept by Texas the math gets much harder.

Wabs said:

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Gaw617 said:

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Right now I think the most likely is you get 1 in each series and win the Auburn series. If you get swept by Texas the math gets much harder.

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Gotta have at least 1 against sip (Yes, I'm hoping for more). But one win puts us at 8 and needing 6 more in our remaining 15 games. It would be nice to go into the last series against Miss State already having 14 wins.

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14 wins for what?

Making a regional?

Need to do better than that!

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Hosting will take at least 17 wins IMO,

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That isn't always the case. It depends on your non-conference RPI and how conference play turns out. Right now, with a bunch of teams clustered at 7-5, I'm thinking 16-14 might get it done with regards to hosting a regional.

BA projection at the moment has us as a 12 w/Ore. tcu, & NWestern St. coming to CS. They have FSU as 5 seed.

Captain Pablo said:

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Last year, the SEC had three 16-win teams. Two hosted, none were top 8

The SEC had one 17-win team. They were top 8 seed

The SEC had one 14-win team, and they played in a regional

The SEC had one 13-win team, and they played in a regional

Every year is different

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I'm not going back to look, but I think all 13-win teams except one have made it in. I'd say unless the SOS is incredibly weak or there are more than 3-4 bad losses, this is a number you can bank on. 12-win teams have gotten in, but there it is complete hit and miss.

The hosting number is where things get very unpredictable. Do all SEC teams even submit bids? I'm guessing most do, but if there are a lot of teams playing in home fields that aren't "hostable" and having good years, we (others) can host as a 2. I'd say 15 SEC wins is probably the floor for that debate, but it isn't like the 13 and in above.

91AggieLawyer said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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Last year, the SEC had three 16-win teams. Two hosted, none were top 8

The SEC had one 17-win team. They were top 8 seed

The SEC had one 14-win team, and they played in a regional

The SEC had one 13-win team, and they played in a regional

Every year is different

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I'm not going back to look, but I think all 13-win teams except one have made it in. I'd say unless the SOS is incredibly weak or there are more than 3-4 bad losses, this is a number you can bank on. 12-win teams have gotten in, but there it is complete hit and miss.

The hosting number is where things get very unpredictable. Do all SEC teams even submit bids? I'm guessing most do, but if there are a lot of teams playing in home fields that aren't "hostable" and having good years, we (others) can host as a 2. I'd say 15 SEC wins is probably the floor for that debate, but it isn't like the 13 and in above.

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Yes, 13-17 teams usually make it as a 2 seed, sometimes 3.

In 2024, the SEC had five 13-17 teams, and all made it as a 2-seed

17-13 are pretty much a lock to host. 16-14 is a crap shoot

12-18 or worse: almost always out
13-17: bubble
14-15 or 15-15: safely in and traveling
16-14: hosting likely
17-13: hosting expected
18-12 or better: hosting and usually top-8 contention

Hopefully, we can find at least 7 wins in our remaining 18 SEC games against Texas (home), LSU (away), Florida (away), Auburn (home), Ole Miss (away), and Mississippi State (home).

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Do all SEC teams even submit bids? I'm guessing most do, but if there are a lot of teams playing in home fields that aren't "hostable" and having good years, we (others) can host as a 2.

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Everyone in the league has a facility that meets (or can meet) NCAA minimums. Even Missouri. The only schools that don't submit bids to host are those so far out of the running that a lazy AD doesn't bother. For the schools that care at all, they submit bids just on the off chance that they find themselves in position to host a super regional thanks to upsets.

Even outside the SEC, I'd wager that everyone who is in position to host will have minimally acceptable facilities and submit a bid. Case in point: Duke. They didn't even play on campus a few years ago, and their facility would be rivaling Missouri for worst in the SEC, but they hosted a regional last year, if I recall correctly.

D1 Rankings as of 04/05 - RPI as of 04/07

02 - 03 - t.u.
24 - 75 - @LSU (added to rankings this week)
NR - 06 - @UF (dropped out of rankings this week)
15 - 05 - Auburn
25 - 13 - @Ole Miss (added to rankings this week)
09 - 12 - Miss State

Well this one helped

FWIW, Nolan's predictor has us at 16-14 in conference with no more Tuesday losses. That includes winning Sunday against t.u., dropping series at LSU and Florida (not exactly controversial predict) but a sweep by State to end out. Not buying that.

While not in the bag, I think 16-17 SEC wins and a 12-16 seed is very much in play.

I guess he's in the business of predicting every game but really seems like flipping a coin and then posting the results

91AggieLawyer said:

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FWIW, Nolan's predictor has us at 16-14 in conference with no more Tuesday losses. That includes winning Sunday against t.u., dropping series at LSU and Florida (not exactly controversial predict) but a sweep by State to end out. Not buying that.

While not in the bag, I think 16-17 SEC wins and a 12-16 seed is very much in play.

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Not to put the cart before the horse, but are we really likely to drop the LSU series? They have been imploding and went 0-4 last week. Are they expected to make a comeback at this point?

Scooley01 said:

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91AggieLawyer said:

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FWIW, Nolan's predictor has us at 16-14 in conference with no more Tuesday losses. That includes winning Sunday against t.u., dropping series at LSU and Florida (not exactly controversial predict) but a sweep by State to end out. Not buying that.

While not in the bag, I think 16-17 SEC wins and a 12-16 seed is very much in play.

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Not to put the cart before the horse, but are we really likely to drop the LSU series? They have been imploding and went 0-4 last week. Are they expected to make a comeback at this point?

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I think we go 3-3 in the next two road series. It's always tough to play at Alex box and Gainesville (we're like 1-8 there since joining the SEC)

Here's the issue if its close at the end of the regular season

We no longer have 30 games. We have 29

So if it's a close call on hosting, what counts more? Number of wins or number of losses?

If 17-13 was the threshold, would 16-13 do the trick since we'd be higher in the SEC standings than the 16-14 teams? Or do we need 17 wins regardless?

Sucks we didn't get the game in. Could cause issues

Captain Pablo said:

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Here's the issue if its close at the end of the regular season

We no longer have 30 games. We have 29

So if it's a close call on hosting, what counts more? Number of wins or number of losses?

If 17-13 was the threshold, would 16-13 do the trick since we'd be higher in the SEC standings than the 16-14 teams? Or do we need 17 wins regardless?

Sucks we didn't get the game in. Could cause issues

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This is what I was going to ask. All of these posts about "we need X wins", etc... How does losing a game to be played effect that? I feel like the committee should consider the SEC win% more than the # of wins, but also don't give them any credit when it comes to actually digging into the records and such.

the lost game gives the Ags a chance to host at 15-14

just need to be over .500 perhaps

Scooley01 said:

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91AggieLawyer said:

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FWIW, Nolan's predictor has us at 16-14 in conference with no more Tuesday losses. That includes winning Sunday against t.u., dropping series at LSU and Florida (not exactly controversial predict) but a sweep by State to end out. Not buying that.

While not in the bag, I think 16-17 SEC wins and a 12-16 seed is very much in play.

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Not to put the cart before the horse, but are we really likely to drop the LSU series? They have been imploding and went 0-4 last week. Are they expected to make a comeback at this point?

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They play well at home and now their season is on the line