We schedule far too many Q4 opponents.

4,878 Views | 41 Replies | Last: 21 days ago by Luke The Drifter
TheBonifaceOption
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1:11p, 4/20/26


GT and UNC get away with it because of their record in Q1.

But 14 games in Q4 is bad, it gets worse when you realize by the end of the season its projected to be 17 games (Q3s dropping to Q4).

The estimated distribution (based on prediction of the remaining league schedule) looks like this:
Q1 - 26
Q2 - 3
Q3 - 7
Q4 - 17

Compare that to RPI 5 Auburn
Q1 - 27
Q2 - 14
Q3 - 7
Q4 - 6

We are 31-7, Auburn is 27-12
In conference we are 12-5, Auburn is 10-8

Yet Auburn is more of a Top8 host than we are. The problem is we have 3X the number of games with terrible squads.
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HoustonAg2106
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1:19p, 4/20/26
AG
You do know the committee doesn't just take the top 8 in RPI and just give them all a national seed right?
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Luke The Drifter
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1:22p, 4/20/26
AG
After last season, we needed wins wherever we could get them. But you hope that one of your February weekend opponents can turn out a strong season. Unfortunately, all of our early season weekend opponents turned out to be duds.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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McInnis
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1:33p, 4/20/26
AG
Tennessee Tech (rpi 244), Penn (201) and Oakland (265) haven't done us any favors. In the future I wish we would schedule teams like Baylor or Texas State in non conference. But then I guess they would want home series in return and problem is, Olsen sells out no matter who the opponent is.
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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1:33p, 4/20/26
man i just say let's keep
winning and i bet it takes care of itself.
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SMM48
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1:37p, 4/20/26
AG
It's gonna be ok. Look who we have coming up. It will all even itself out
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HoustonAg2106
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In reply to Detmersdislocatedshoulder • 1:38p, 4/20/26
AG
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
man i just say let's keep
winning and i bet it takes care of itself.


Finish top 3 in SEC standings and you'll be a top 8, it's basically that simple.
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TheBonifaceOption
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In reply to Luke The Drifter • 1:39p, 4/20/26
Luke The Drifter said:
After last season, we needed wins wherever we could get them. But you hope that one of your February weekend opponents can turn out a strong season. Unfortunately, all of our early season weekend opponents turned out to be duds.

Oakland, Penn, and Tennessee Tech should be replaced with Rice, Texas Tech, and TCU (or even ACU or DBU).
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Luke The Drifter
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1:41p, 4/20/26
AG
Even though we needed wins this year, we need to schedule better on our "off" weekends. We don't have to schedule North Carolina or Virginia, but we should be able to schedule teams like Kansas State, Maryland, or Pittsburgh. Move some of those Q4 games to Q3 or even Q2.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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Luke The Drifter
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 1:42p, 4/20/26
AG
TheBonifaceOption said:
Luke The Drifter said:
After last season, we needed wins wherever we could get them. But you hope that one of your February weekend opponents can turn out a strong season. Unfortunately, all of our early season weekend opponents turned out to be duds.

Oakland, Penn, and Tennessee Tech should be replaced with Rice, Texas Tech, and TCU (or even ACU or DBU).


We left the SWC for a reason.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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Mr.Ackar07
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 1:44p, 4/20/26
TheBonifaceOption said:
Luke The Drifter said:
After last season, we needed wins wherever we could get them. But you hope that one of your February weekend opponents can turn out a strong season. Unfortunately, all of our early season weekend opponents turned out to be duds.

Oakland, Penn, and Tennessee Tech should be replaced with Rice, Texas Tech, and TCU (or even ACU or DBU).

Historically (recency bias) Rice (210 in 2025) and ACU (188) would have left us with the same Q4 wins. Any home game against an RPI of 101 or higher is considered a Q4 game.
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TheBonifaceOption
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In reply to Luke The Drifter • 1:46p, 4/20/26
Luke The Drifter said:
Even though we needed wins this year, we need to schedule better on our "off" weekends. We don't have to schedule North Carolina or Virginia, but we should be able to schedule teams like Kansas State, Maryland, or Pittsburgh. Move some of those Q4 games to Q3 or even Q2.

I think we need to schedule Q2 powers, some of our current Q3s are dropping to Q4s (likewise some Q2s to Q3). Schedule harder games, risk a few Ls, but have an exemplary resume win or lose.
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Luke The Drifter
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1:47p, 4/20/26
AG
And I know it's tough to beat Olsen Field, but I wouldn't mind seeing us hit the road in February to somewhere besides Houston or Arlington tournaments.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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Fairview20
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 1:48p, 4/20/26
AG
TheBonifaceOption said:
Luke The Drifter said:
After last season, we needed wins wherever we could get them. But you hope that one of your February weekend opponents can turn out a strong season. Unfortunately, all of our early season weekend opponents turned out to be duds.

Oakland, Penn, and Tennessee Tech should be replaced with Rice, Texas Tech, and TCU (or even ACU or DBU).


Due to how difficult the SEC schedule is week in and week out, it's doubtful we would schedule a weekend series with another P5 team (though it would be awesome).

I wouldn't mind playing Tech or TCU in the midweek though instead of the Texas Southern or Tarleton type teams.
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twk
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1:57p, 4/20/26
AG
While, for the entertainment value, I would love to see us play a P5 weekend series against anyone, not doing so isn't likely to hurt us given our SEC schedule. Now, with the league up to 16 teams, it's possible you could draw a schedule where the SEC slate doesn't end up helping as much as you would expect (Vanderbilt may get that experience this year, sitting at .500 with a 72 RPI, but with Missouri and USC left on their schedule), but, most of the time, the SEC schedule is going to provide you all the RPI boost you need.
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TAMU1990
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In reply to Luke The Drifter • 2:03p, 4/20/26
AG
Luke The Drifter said:
And I know it's tough to beat Olsen Field, but I wouldn't mind seeing us hit the road in February to somewhere besides Houston or Arlington tournaments.


Not me. As a season ticket holder I enjoy watching the team develop in February. We should be able to find teams that have to come in because of weather. Oregon State or a Big 10 team would be nice to see once out of those three weekends. But I think the goal in February is to get as many players/pitchers in to see what you got.
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twk
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In reply to TAMU1990 • 2:13p, 4/20/26
AG
TAMU1990 said:
Luke The Drifter said:
And I know it's tough to beat Olsen Field, but I wouldn't mind seeing us hit the road in February to somewhere besides Houston or Arlington tournaments.


Not me. As a season ticket holder I enjoy watching the team develop in February. We should be able to find teams that have to come in because of weather. Oregon State or a Big 10 team would be nice to see once out of those three weekends. But I think the goal in February is to get as many players/pitchers in to see what you got.

You know what might get an Oregon State or some other programs to make the trip? Money. If we found someone to sponsor that weekend (i.e., pay the travel costs and a little extra for the team coming in), I bet we could find a decent opponent for one of those weekends.
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jja79
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In reply to Luke The Drifter • 2:26p, 4/20/26
AG
Luke The Drifter said:
And I know it's tough to beat Olsen Field, but I wouldn't mind seeing us hit the road in February to somewhere besides Houston or Arlington tournaments.


Selfishly I'd love to see us in the MLB showcase the first weekend of the season in Phoenix. Weather in CS was great this year but I've sat through some cold early season games.
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bulverdeaggie93
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2:30p, 4/20/26
AG
keep 2 of the Feb cupcake weekends… and replace the 3rd cupcake with something better
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91AggieLawyer
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In reply to HoustonAg2106 • 3:24p, 4/20/26
AG
HoustonAg2106 said:
You do know the committee doesn't just take the top 8 in RPI and just give them all a national seed right?


They probably do since there are 16 national seeds now. It would be difficult for a top 8 RPI team to not be a national seed.

I know...I know...Top 8 means home field advantage in the Supers if you make it and that's what many "mean." But I wish people would use the right language because some think there are still only 8 national seeds. Hasn't been for a decade.
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ColoradoMooseHerd
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In reply to 91AggieLawyer • 3:31p, 4/20/26
91AggieLawyer said:
HoustonAg2106 said:
You do know the committee doesn't just take the top 8 in RPI and just give them all a national seed right?


They probably do since there are 16 national seeds now. It would be difficult for a top 8 RPI team to not be a national seed.

I know...I know...Top 8 means home field advantage in the Supers if you make it and that's what many "mean." But I wish people would use the right language because some think there are still only 8 national seeds. Hasn't been for a decade.

Most people consider the Top 8 National Seeds
and then 9-16 as Regional Hosts.
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ColoradoMooseHerd
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3:34p, 4/20/26
ColoradoMooseHerd
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In reply to ColoradoMooseHerd • 3:36p, 4/20/26
ColoradoMooseHerd said:
91AggieLawyer said:
HoustonAg2106 said:
You do know the committee doesn't just take the top 8 in RPI and just give them all a national seed right?


They probably do since there are 16 national seeds now. It would be difficult for a top 8 RPI team to not be a national seed.

I know...I know...Top 8 means home field advantage in the Supers if you make it and that's what many "mean." But I wish people would use the right language because some think there are still only 8 national seeds. Hasn't been for a decade.

Most people consider the Top 8 National Seeds
and then 9-16 as Regional Hosts.

I would compare it to Basketball.

In Basketball you have 4 #1 seeds, They won't face another #1 seed until they get to the Final Four.

In Baseball most consider 8 national seeds, a national seed won't face another national seed until they get to Omaha.
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twk
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In reply to 91AggieLawyer • 3:36p, 4/20/26
AG
91AggieLawyer said:
HoustonAg2106 said:
You do know the committee doesn't just take the top 8 in RPI and just give them all a national seed right?


They probably do since there are 16 national seeds now. It would be difficult for a top 8 RPI team to not be a national seed.

I know...I know...Top 8 means home field advantage in the Supers if you make it and that's what many "mean." But I wish people would use the right language because some think there are still only 8 national seeds. Hasn't been for a decade.

Anachronisms are celebrated at Texas AMC. It's what we do.
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threeanout
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In reply to Mr.Ackar07 • 4:06p, 4/20/26
AG
Mr.Ackar07 said:

Historically (recency bias) Rice (210 in 2025) and ACU (188) would have left us with the same Q4 wins. Any home game against an RPI of 101 or higher is considered a Q4 game.

A Quad 4 win in baseball for home games is 161 or higher. We have played some really bad teams this year. Houston Christian moved up to 149 or we would have 15 Quad 4 games.
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Mr.Ackar07
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In reply to threeanout • 5:09p, 4/20/26
threeanout said:
Mr.Ackar07 said:

Historically (recency bias) Rice (210 in 2025) and ACU (188) would have left us with the same Q4 wins. Any home game against an RPI of 101 or higher is considered a Q4 game.

A Quad 4 win in baseball for home games is 161 or higher. We have played some really bad teams this year. Houston Christian moved up to 149 or we would have 15 Quad 4 games.


According to Warren Nolan, Q4 home games are 101 and higher:


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threeanout
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In reply to Mr.Ackar07 • 5:18p, 4/20/26
AG
Mr.Ackar07 said:
threeanout said:
Mr.Ackar07 said:

Historically (recency bias) Rice (210 in 2025) and ACU (188) would have left us with the same Q4 wins. Any home game against an RPI of 101 or higher is considered a Q4 game.

A Quad 4 win in baseball for home games is 161 or higher. We have played some really bad teams this year. Houston Christian moved up to 149 or we would have 15 Quad 4 games.


According to Warren Nolan, Q4 home games are 101 and higher:



You are correct.
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Sq 17
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In reply to threeanout • 8:10p, 4/20/26
Lots of Q4 games if 101 and up @ Olsen is Q4
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Emilio Fantastico
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8:29p, 4/20/26
AG
Another issue we have is that so many of the smaller schools in Texas we play have really fallen off a cliff which makes it really hard to schedule anything but Q4 games on Tuesdays.

I mean Rice used to be a Top 10 RPI school we would play on Tuesdays and now they suck.

I do agree that we should try to schedule games against teams like Baylor and TCU to get some better matchups.
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dcg4403
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8:34p, 4/20/26
AG
Just another overreaction. Keep winning,,,,it won't matter. Committee isn't make those top 8 rankings by purely statistical rankings. We win out the majority of our SEC series left and they go Top 8 period. Their schedule is fine and is not hurting them as they are WINNING against the best of the best.

They are already a tournament lock, too.

No reason to complain whatsoever this season...that's for sure.
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threeanout
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In reply to Emilio Fantastico • 8:46p, 4/20/26
AG
Emilio Fantastico said:
Another issue we have is that so many of the smaller schools in Texas we play have really fallen off a cliff which makes it really hard to schedule anything but Q4 games on Tuesdays.

I mean Rice used to be a Top 10 RPI school we would play on Tuesdays and now they suck.

The problem as I see it is three games against #243 Tenn Tech, three games against #201 Penn, and three games against #265 Oakland....not so much the small Texas schools. With that said, there is no reason to schedule Prairie View.
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Sea Pony 07
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9:23p, 4/20/26
AG
I'd like to see us drop Prairie View and one other q4 for midweek games with a home and away 2 year contract with TCU and Baylor. As much as I don't like Tech, a February weekend series would be beneficial for the rpi.
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Gap
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In reply to Sea Pony 07 • 9:38p, 4/20/26
AG
Sea Pony 07 said:
I'd like to see us drop Prairie View and one other q4 for midweek games with a home and away 2 year contract with TCU and Baylor. As much as I don't like Tech, a February weekend series would be beneficial for the rpi.


I agree with you on midweek games with Baylor and TCU. However, Tech has taken a step backwards in baseball over the last few years. So that is not something I would want to add to our weekend non-conference. Below are the RPI for the various Tech's in baseball.

#47 Virginia Tech
#87 Louisiana Tech
#126 Texas Tech
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OldShadeOfBlue
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9:52p, 4/20/26
AG
Not really, we still have 5 SEC opponents left, no one will be looking at Q4 opponents at the end of the season if they haven't already.
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TheBonifaceOption
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7:23p, 4/21/26
We cancelled vs #41 UTSA and vs #2 tu.

All this "just win" talk is nice and all but there will be losses. SoS and RPI important factors in the evaluation of teams with similar records. Idk why thats so controversial.
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