Which SEC teams get out of regionals

7,101 Views | 68 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by Sean98
annie88
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CC00 said:

Our non-conference schedule sucks. Get one series with someone with a pulse and add teams like Baylor, DBU, or Louisiana to mid-week.


tu basically played the same teams we did. And their Air Force game was rained out.

tu ooc 2026

Lamar
UTRVG
Houston Christian
Texas State
Tarleton State
Houston
Incarnate word
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Air Force
Sam Houston
UTSA
I don’t get enough credit for the things I manage not to say.
greg.w.h
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In theory the top 32 were seeded. In fact? Maybe not…at least not in order…
Emilio Fantastico
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Arkansas got a break this year and isn't hosting so they can't choke at home. So they should advance easily.
ensign_beedrill
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Well. Only one could get that spot.
ensign_beedrill
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CC00 said:

Our non-conference schedule sucks. Get one series with someone with a pulse and add teams like Baylor, DBU, or Louisiana to mid-week.

Not sure Baylor has a pulse.
MagnumLoad
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So if we schedule tougher midweeks and lose more midweeks, it helps our seeding??
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
twk
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MagnumLoad said:

So if we schedule tougher midweeks and lose more midweeks, it helps our seeding??

Theoretically, we could play the same teams we are playing right now, just play more of those games on the road, and it would increase our RPI, whatever the results, because you get more credit for a road win (less penalty for a road loss) than you do at home. But, playing fewer home games means less money, so that's not likely to happen.
Sean98
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GigEmADED said:

jefe95 said:

Of course Texas got the easy draw.




UCSB and Tarelton are legit teams
UCSB has fantastic arms but can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag.
Sean98
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twk said:

MagnumLoad said:

So if we schedule tougher midweeks and lose more midweeks, it helps our seeding??

Theoretically, we could play the same teams we are playing right now, just play more of those games on the road, and it would increase our RPI, whatever the results, because you get more credit for a road win (less penalty for a road loss) than you do at home. But, playing fewer home games means less money, so that's not likely to happen.
I'd love to see how much money we actually make on a Tuesday night vs PVAMU. I'd kinda be surprised if it even pays enough to pay the electric bill for the evening.

On the other hand do a home and home with a couple of former SWC foes the way we have with Houston in the past. It doesn't have to be an in season H&H like we did with SWT this year although that's also an option.

We have ~12 midweek games per year. Have four multi-year home and homes. That means 2 home & 2 away each year, alternating the following year. Teams like Baylor (63), TCU (46), Texas St (43), UTSA (52) and Houston (108). All easy travel days.

Drop PV, UIW, HCU. It would cost you 1-2 poorly attended Tuesday games per year, would replace them with more intriguing matchups (anyone want to project attendance vs Baylor or TCU vs Houston Christian??), and could help you earn 2-3 more home games in the postseason. That's an easy financial decision.
ensign_beedrill
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8 home and 4 away Tuesday games seems very reasonable.
RED AG 98
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annie88 said:

CC00 said:

Our non-conference schedule sucks. Get one series with someone with a pulse and add teams like Baylor, DBU, or Louisiana to mid-week.


tu basically played the same teams we did. And their Air Force game was rained out.

tu ooc 2026

Lamar
UTRVG
Houston Christian
Texas State
Tarleton State
Houston
Incarnate word
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Air Force
Sam Houston
UTSA

Overall SOS, Non-conference SOS
tu 9, 73
Ags 17, 212

Pretty obvious what the issue is. The SEC is a gauntlet for everyone, more than adequate to earn plenty of RPI and SOS credit. What we have to do is quit playing the absolute crappiest of teams in D1 baseball, which means no more weekend series with the likes or TN Tech (250) or Oakland (290), and no more mid-weeks with Prairie View (302).

Not hard, we just refuse to adjust and continually pay the penalty, all the while screaming that we got shafted. Not directed at you, just tired of the constant whining and conspiracy theorists.

Our seeding is about right. I thought 8-10 beforehand but I also thought RPI was going to be minimized where clearly it was not. Some teams were treated better, but there are dozens that are much worse off than us.

ETA: here's tu's non-conference weekend series RPIs
UC Davis (146)
Mich St (106)
SC Update (84)

Yes, some of this is a crapshoot but 1000% we knew when our 3 non-conference series were scheduled how absolutely terrible those programs are. 100s is fine with the SEC SOS; just quit playing the upper 200s and any all 300s. Period.
RED AG 98
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MagnumLoad said:

So if we schedule tougher midweeks and lose more midweeks, it helps our seeding??

See my prior post above. It ain't just the midweeks. Those early weekend series were terrible, awful, no good, very bad teams. That's way more impactful than a single mid-week.

But also, yes quit playing PVAM. Just write them a check if we have to subsidize them. No need to pay and be punished both
CC00
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ensign_beedrill said:

CC00 said:

Our non-conference schedule sucks. Get one series with someone with a pulse and add teams like Baylor, DBU, or Louisiana to mid-week.

Not sure Baylor has a pulse.

You and Annie aren't looking at the actual numbers.

Texas had the #73 non-conference SOS - partly because of the 3 OOC series (9 games)
UC Davis RPI 146
Michigan State RPI 106
South Carolina Upstate RPI 84

A&M has #212 non-conference SOS - our 9 games:
Oakland - RPI 294
Tennessee Tech - RPI 250
Penn - RPI 171

All 3 worse than the worst Texas played.

Baylor RPI 61
DBU RPI 71
Louisiana 33
SE Louisiana 74
Rice 76
Louisiana Tech 80.

Of the top 30 RPI teams, only Georgia, WVU, and Mercer has worse non-conference SOS.
Padre_Island_Ag
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I have no confidence in our team making it out of our own regional.

Hope I'm wrong.

He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep
to gain what he cannot lose!



Soli Deo Gloria
annie88
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jefe95 said:

Of course Texas got the easy draw.




Can't have UTSA knocking them out again.
I don’t get enough credit for the things I manage not to say.
annie88
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I don't think we have any control over which teams they invite to these tournaments that we do early in the season.
I don’t get enough credit for the things I manage not to say.
LincolnBorglum79
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GigEmADED said:

jefe95 said:

Of course Texas got the easy draw.



Didn't they lose 6-1 to Tarleton State in Austin? Otherwise easy as utsa was last year.

UCSB and Tarelton are legit teams
Serious Lee
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ensign_beedrill said:

CC00 said:

Our non-conference schedule sucks. Get one series with someone with a pulse and add teams like Baylor, DBU, or Louisiana to mid-week.

Not sure Baylor has a pulse.

TCU does though.

Now im wondering how (and why) we got fullerton to come to BCS for a midweek. And reigning national champ Oregon state (cant remember if mid week or 3 game series).
CC00
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None of the games I listed were part of those tournaments for either team. They are the 3 non-conference series we scheduled at home.
RED AG 98
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We played RPI 42, 1, and 44 in Arlington at the tournament. Not an issue at all. The problem is the terrible, awful, no good, very bad teams we played in other non-conference weekend series that are the major issue.

3x 250
3x 171
3x 294

For reference, Missouri, the worst team in the SEC in a very long time, is 109.
Lamar, coming to CS this weekend is 90.

To be fair, Brauny has highlighted that get anyone to schedule series with us after pos left was an issue. I can't say I have any backstory or understand that to any extent at all, but it sounds fishy at best.

I will die on this hill that our scheduling is bad and we should at least try to improve the non-conference series. Those 9 games + PVAM may very well have cost us a top 8 this year, 6-14 are separated by a mere 94 RPI points. Only 36 points between 10-14...
ensign_beedrill
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annie88 said:

jefe95 said:

Of course Texas got the easy draw.




Can't have UTSA knocking them out again.

Committee kept them out of the tournament for doing this last year.
ensign_beedrill
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RED AG 98 said:

To be fair, Brauny has highlighted that get anyone to schedule series with us after pos left was an issue. I can't say I have any backstory or understand that to any extent at all, but it sounds fishy at best.


Huh? This is the first I've heard this. Very odd.
Sean98
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ensign_beedrill said:

8 home and 4 away Tuesday games seems very reasonable.
Heck, I was just asking for 10-2 and quit scheduling sub 250 RPI teams!!
tjack16
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Sean98 said:

ensign_beedrill said:

8 home and 4 away Tuesday games seems very reasonable.
Heck, I was just asking for 10-2 and quit scheduling sub 250 RPI teams!!


I'd go with the split midweeks against teams like Texas State, TCU, DBU and UTSA.

One at home against each and then a return trip later in the year or vice versa.
Sean98
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tjack16 said:

Sean98 said:

ensign_beedrill said:

8 home and 4 away Tuesday games seems very reasonable.

Heck, I was just asking for 10-2 and quit scheduling sub 250 RPI teams!!


I'd go with the split midweeks against teams like Texas State, TCU, DBU and UTSA.

One at home against each and then a return trip later in the year or vice versa.

That's exactly what I'm suggesting. 4 home and homes per year, rotating by year. Sub 120 RPIs, preferably sub 75. There's plenty of teams in our region that fit that metric on a normal basis.

And yes, as RedAg said, we simply MUST stop scheduling 250+ RPIs for 3 game series. It's just murder on the data points.
tjack16
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Sean98 said:

tjack16 said:

Sean98 said:

ensign_beedrill said:

8 home and 4 away Tuesday games seems very reasonable.

Heck, I was just asking for 10-2 and quit scheduling sub 250 RPI teams!!


I'd go with the split midweeks against teams like Texas State, TCU, DBU and UTSA.

One at home against each and then a return trip later in the year or vice versa.

That's exactly what I'm suggesting. 4 home and homes per year, rotating by year. Sub 120 RPIs, preferably sub 75. There's plenty of teams in our region that fit that metric on a normal basis.

And yes, as RedAg said, we simply MUST stop scheduling 250+ RPIs for 3 game series. It's just murder on the data points.


Yep.

Midweek ideas (play them once or twice alternating home and road): TCU, DBU, UTSA, Texas State, Houston. About 7-8 games total against those 5 opponents

Non conf weekends:
- cupcake opener
- MLB tournament
- P4 opponent at home (middle of the pack Big 10, ACC, Big 12)

That would do wonders, and we'd maintain the ability to get out of the non conference with 3 or fewer losses if we are a good squad
Whoop2oo1
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Why don't we boost our system schools to get better? Get them some NIL money and they could become a quasi farm system. We write these schools checks to play us. We might as well use them while also improving their programs.
RED AG 98
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100%. Even the worst P4 offenders are miles and miles better than what we've scheduled.

The ACC has 15 schools. Only Stanford is >100 at 104. Other schools are 2, 4, 8, 34, 30, 20, 42, 26, 51, 68, 91, 59, 39, 49 and 86

Big 10 is a little worse, 7 of 17 schools are in the 100s - 1, 10, 9, 15, 54, 87, 53, 67, 101, 122, 156, 93, 106, 85, 93, 106, 85, 124, 197, 150

Big 12 is similar to B10, 4 of 14 - 19, 17, 44, 36, 29, 22, 46, 61, 77, 103, 55, 126, 189, 108

Hell even the Fun / Sun Belt only have 1 200+ team this year -- 12, 27, 64, 113, 35, 33, 43, 115, 130, 188, 58, 173, 181, 204*

*this is Georgia Southern, ranked RPI 204. They were 16-40 overall and 7-23 in the Sun Belt. To give folks an idea about just how terrible it is we had 3 series and 1 midweek at this level or worse.
RED AG 98
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So the flagship school gives away some of it's own personal revenue or NIL in order to prop up a system school? Why on earth would we be interested in doing that at all?

Are you a socialist or do you just play one on Wednesdays?
twk
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Quote:

Non conf weekends:
- cupcake opener
- MLB tournament
- P4 opponent at home (middle of the pack Big 10, ACC, Big 12)


Why would these teams agree to come to Olsen without a return trip?
tjack16
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twk said:

Quote:

Non conf weekends:
- cupcake opener
- MLB tournament
- P4 opponent at home (middle of the pack Big 10, ACC, Big 12)


Why would these teams agree to come to Olsen without a return trip?


For the same reason we want to host them. Think of the RPI boost they'd get from going on the road to an SEC school.

A school like Maryland, Kansas state, Duke, etc. Even if they went 1-2 against us on a road weekend, their RPI would be in a great spot

And if they did want a return trip, then why wouldn't we? Just drop the MLB tournament and make a P4 road weekend out of it. Would be about the same RPI difference based on who it is.
Emilio Fantastico
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Sean98 said:

tjack16 said:

Sean98 said:

ensign_beedrill said:

8 home and 4 away Tuesday games seems very reasonable.

Heck, I was just asking for 10-2 and quit scheduling sub 250 RPI teams!!


I'd go with the split midweeks against teams like Texas State, TCU, DBU and UTSA.

One at home against each and then a return trip later in the year or vice versa.

That's exactly what I'm suggesting. 4 home and homes per year, rotating by year. Sub 120 RPIs, preferably sub 75. There's plenty of teams in our region that fit that metric on a normal basis.

And yes, as RedAg said, we simply MUST stop scheduling 250+ RPIs for 3 game series. It's just murder on the data points.

About the only exception to this might be the opening series of the season just to get our feet wet. But still, you should be able to do that with a 150-200 range RPI team and not commit metrics suicide.
Sean98
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I don't think you'd get many p4 teams to take a 1-off road trip to B/CS. ...you actually might be able to get a Big 10 team as it's too cold for home games the first 3-4 weeks.

Where I think your options lie here are in the Big East, So Con, Sun Belt, etc. Those are schools that are good enough to beat team, and thus, they have a hard time getting good games. But at the end of the day they're all aware that if they don't win their conference tourney there's a chance they get F'd by the committee. So they need all the RPI & SOS they can get. I'm betting Mercer is wishing they'd come to College Station this year rather than playing Columbia and Penn at home. They'll get 9 months to think about it since they're done for the year.


...while we're at it, I'm A-Ok with the understanding that we're probably going to lose a few more games by actually playing teams with a pulse. And if you do play one of those absolute cupcakes you should really play a LOT of backups to get them actual game experience. Not only are we playing cupcakes, we're playing our starters against cupcakes in most circumstances. I know you want some continuity and rhythm, but you need ABs for your down roster guys and you need to see more innings from the depths of your bullpen to develop guys for this time of year. Darden, Lyons, Freshcorn shouldn't be throwing on Tuesdays, but they did a lot.
Sean98
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I'm fine if you play Penn Elementary School in week 1. It's Oakland in Week 4 that is the killer.
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