Current USA estimate 10k to 40k cases
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Last: 6 yr ago by TMoney2007
The Benton Arkansas death that the Aggie doctor reported still has not been officially counted.
That 30 year old tested positive in his autopsy a week after his death and nada in the news about it.
That 30 year old tested positive in his autopsy a week after his death and nada in the news about it.
PJYoung said:Lateralus Ag said:PJYoung said:
Interesting thread.
Which also means that the fatality rate is grossly overblown.
Excellent information. And really good news.
Probably not since the deaths would not have been tested either unfortunately. People die of pneumonia literally all of the time.
You can't have it both ways. Count them or don't.
Well you posted about guesstimated infections, what is your guesstimate for untested deaths?PJYoung said:Lateralus Ag said:PJYoung said:
Interesting thread.
Which also means that the fatality rate is grossly overblown.
Excellent information. And really good news.
Probably not since the deaths would not have been tested either unfortunately. People die of pneumonia literally all of the time.
If you look at the sticky post at the top of this forum, you'll see the same thing. The mortality rate is almost certainly overblown because we have not been testing appropriately. Once testing increases, we will see a 'surge' in cases which will bring down the mortality rate.
Vernada said:
If you look at the sticky post at the top of this forum, you'll see the same thing. The mortality rate is almost certainly overblown because we have not been testing appropriately. Once testing increases, we will see a 'surge' in cases which will bring down the mortality rate.
Mortality rate in SK is .89% and rising.
Almost 9% for 80+, over 5% for 70+
I would guess it will be better here since we should have more advanced treatments but time will tell.
The overall case fatality rate certainly will go down. It's a 2.27% now, I'd wager we'll end up between 0.3-0.7%. Which is still high.Vernada said:
If you look at the sticky post at the top of this forum, you'll see the same thing. The mortality rate is almost certainly overblown because we have not been testing appropriately. Once testing increases, we will see a 'surge' in cases which will bring down the mortality rate.
Those in their 80's will be much higher.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Lateralus Ag said:PJYoung said:Lateralus Ag said:PJYoung said:
Interesting thread.
Which also means that the fatality rate is grossly overblown.
Excellent information. And really good news.
Probably not since the deaths would not have been tested either unfortunately. People die of pneumonia literally all of the time.
You can't have it both ways. Count them or don't.
This makes zero sense but will get all of the blue stars.
Cases are estimated, estimate deaths at the current best guess mortality rate too if you need to.
People want so badly to say this pandemic is all hype about nothing. I understand that part.
Everyone wants to say it's only hype. But then they go out and buy TP.
I question all these supposed hidden cases. It seems like a large percentage of the positive tests are from people who traveled to Europe recently. If we have 10k hidden cases, I would expect a smaller percentage of the positives to be people who recently traveled and more of the community spread people.
WTF San Antonio
Lateralus Ag said:PJYoung said:Lateralus Ag said:PJYoung said:
Interesting thread.
Which also means that the fatality rate is grossly overblown.
Excellent information. And really good news.
Probably not since the deaths would not have been tested either unfortunately. People die of pneumonia literally all of the time.
You can't have it both ways. Count them or don't.
Did you miss his point? If one is estimated than so is the other.
Why does Ohio keep saying they have 100k cases?
Quote:
It seems like a large percentage of the positive tests are from people who traveled to Europe recently.
I think that is rapidly changing and many new cases did not have any connection to foreign travel. The first case in Oklahoma County (where OK City is) was just identified yesterday - a 60 year old woman who just returned from Florida. She is case #4 for the state of OK. The first two cases (in Tulsa) WERE from travel to Italy. Case #3 was an Airman at Altus AFB who had just returned from leave in Seattle.
The two Jazz players who just tested positive count against Utah, but were in OKC when they found out. The Jazz had just come from Boston - a hot bed of virus cases. There is a post on texags that the wife of the head of Texas U just tested positive. She just returned from NYC - another hotbed for cases.
Yes, we still have a lot of folks in quarantine that came off cruise ships, but once that gets sorted out I think the amount of cases due to foreign travel will drop off rapidly.
On a side note - the two Jazz players tested positive have had the biggest impact by far. From what I am reading about the NCAA, XFL, MLS, etc, etc the Jazz players testing positive scared the hell out of the folks who run those organizations and that is why so many sports events have been cancelled. Again - nothing to do with foreign travel.
Edit: OK case #1 (50 year old man) has recovered. Cases 2 and 3 are in their 20's I think, so there is a good chance they will recover as well.
You only count closed cases for calculating fatality rates. As of right now in the US, more closed cases have ended in death (50) than recovery (41). Worldwide, the survival rate is 78% if you exclude Chinese numbers. It is 93% if you include Chinese numbers.
The mortality rate is .1 to 1 percent. Stop the hysteria.
All A&M said:
Are those estimates based on taking no action or does it already account for the massive social distancing that most are now practicing until spring (school closures, event cancellations, work from home, etc.)?
That is SK death rate and they handled this way way way better than we have so far.
I dont think we will be as bad as Italy but that would be a better comaprison for us.
Great, thoughtful post. I couldn't agree more.
nortex97 said:
The mortality rate is .1 to 1 percent. Stop the hysteria.
How about for elderly people? Do they not matter?
nortex97 said:
The mortality rate is .1 to 1 percent. Stop the hysteria.
Head in the sand because America.
It's like they have North Korea right next door and we're halfway prepared for such contingencies....PJYoung said:All A&M said:
Are those estimates based on taking no action or does it already account for the massive social distancing that most are now practicing until spring (school closures, event cancellations, work from home, etc.)?
That is SK death rate and they handled this way way way better than we have so far.
PJYoung said:All A&M said:
Are those estimates based on taking no action or does it already account for the massive social distancing that most are now practicing until spring (school closures, event cancellations, work from home, etc.)?
That is SK death rate and they handled this way way way better than we have so far.
The main reason for the much lower SK death rate is the increased denominator... they've tested everyone from the beginning. Latest number is 0.73% death rate in SK.
The US death rate is currently very skewed by the Washington State nursing home. Washington State accounts for 37 of the 50 US deaths per the NYT
lockett93 said:PJYoung said:All A&M said:
Are those estimates based on taking no action or does it already account for the massive social distancing that most are now practicing until spring (school closures, event cancellations, work from home, etc.)?
That is SK death rate and they handled this way way way better than we have so far.
The main reason for the much lower SK death rate is the increased denominator... they've tested everyone from the beginning. Latest number is 0.73% death rate in SK.
The US death rate is currently very skewed by the Washington State nursing home. Washington State accounts for 37 of the 50 US deaths per the NYT
Yes but I meant long term.
They locked down their cases, quarantined them and snuffed out the virus at the beginning.
What have we done? Not tested and let it run wild.
It looks like to me that we will pay a price that SK won't have to pay.
nortex97 said:
The mortality rate is .1 to 1 percent. Stop the hysteria.
Multiply .5 (somewhere between your purported best case and worst case range) times just even half of our national population of 350 million. The math is unrelenting. You have to make sure a significant portion of the population does not all get this within a short period of time.
NASAg03 said:
Why does Ohio keep saying they have 100k cases?
I don't understand that either. When you look at total cases worldwide (I understand China probably under reported and the virus has not hit its peak elsewhere in the world) Ohio is saying it could have half of the positive cases reported worldwide!
Yep. And 3-5 times that number will need hospitalization.H.E. Pennypacker said:nortex97 said:
The mortality rate is .1 to 1 percent. Stop the hysteria.
Multiply .5 (somewhere between your purported best case and worst case range) times just even half of our national population of 350 million. The math is unrelenting. You have to make sure a significant portion of the population does not all get this within a short period of time.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Could be that people who have travelled are mostly the ones going to the doctor. It's the end of the cold/flu season and allergies are starting up too. If the average case is as mild as they say it is, most people I know would never go to the doctor for it. But if they've just come back from overseas, they'd probably be going to the doc as soon as they fel5 the first minor symptom.AustinAg2K said:
I question all these supposed hidden cases. It seems like a large percentage of the positive tests are from people who traveled to Europe recently. If we have 10k hidden cases, I would expect a smaller percentage of the positives to be people who recently traveled and more of the community spread people.
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