Here's the thing about "death rates", you are dividing the total number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases. However, people don't get this virus and die immediately, there's the incubation period and then the symptoms build until their body fails. Because the number of confirmed cases is constantly changing you have to go back in time and use the number of confirmed cases in the denominator on the day that the last person who died contracted the virus. Those 2 weeks or so make s huge difference in exponential growth scenarios.

These graphs get pretty scary when your daily multiplier sre anywhere from 1.3 to 1.4

https://demo.sitscape.com/p/dccdb375?pubid=m5sxuzdjfnjq&bid=m5stg5drfnjq&__r=1

well summarized.

AustinAg2K said:

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I question all these supposed hidden cases. It seems like a large percentage of the positive tests are from people who traveled to Europe recently. If we have 10k hidden cases, I would expect a smaller percentage of the positives to be people who recently traveled and more of the community spread people.

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In order to test positive, you have to first be tested. If you have the symptoms and recently traveled they are more likely to test you than if you've come across a person with the disease by happenstance. So yeah, the percentage of people that tested positive who recently travelled to Europe is high, but so is the proportion of people who have been tested.


We cannot get information about the existence of this disease in the US based upon our current testing rate. We can only look at other countries further down the path to try to understand it's potential impact here.

nortex97 said:

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The mortality rate is .1 to 1 percent. Stop the hysteria.

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Stating guesses as fact undermines your point.

The ultimate mortality rate will depend on the response of different populations effecting viral transmission rate, the demographics of the populations where viral outbreaks occur, available medical facilities in those areas, and overall viral burden. Tossing a mortality rate out there like you have knowledge the rest of us don't demonstrates a lack of understanding of the populations' ability to influence that rate.

Starting from a position of inevitability is a losing mindset.

There are already vastly different mortality rates between countries and between cities within the same country because of those differences in demographics, severity of restriction of personal movement, and timing of those restrictions

The only component of mortality rate that we can help influence immediately is the rate of transmission. The cancellation of public gatherings is not hysteria. It's intelligent, rational, measured decisions based on epidemiology and first hand evidence of what's already happened in other countries. Dismissing these decisions and labeling them as hysteria is ignorance.

Hording food and sanitary items is absolutely hysteria. Anyone participating in that is actively creating the shortage of supplies they cite as a reason for doing it. There are no current or anticipated interruptions in supply chains because of this viral outbreak (just talking groceries here). Perhaps I'm the only one that doesn't continually wipe my ass while confined to my residence for an extended period of time, but the state of the TP aisle at my local Kroger has me questioning that notion.

PJYoung said:

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I dont think we will be as bad as Italy but that would be a better comaprison for us.

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I don't think there is any logical reason to think that it won't get as bad as Italy has. Better access to healthcare and a nationwide lock down that is highly unlikely to happen here.

We're not on a path to be better off than Italy. At best with some luck it won't get as bad as Italy.

We're not going to magically fare better because we're the US.