Sunday 3/15 - Anyone have an updated US death toll?

13,403 Views | 75 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by SMM48
WorkerBee
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Sisyphus said:


Quote:

Italy's older population certainly has something to do with it. However, Italy has more hospital beds per capita, and more ICU beds per capita than the US.

This is accurate. It's going to hit harder here than in Italy unless people are responsible and start self-isolating. When it gets into rural communities it will hit really hard since they were already lacking in hospital capacity.
This is not accurate. Per the Society of Critical Care Medicine you guys are not even close. Quit falling for the media hype. This is per 100,000 people.
USA 34.7
Germany 29.2
Italy 12.5
France 11.6
Everyone else

rws92
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jmm said:

it is idiotic to compare Italy to U.S. Italy has a substantially older population, higher population density, higher percentage of smokers and substantially lower quality medical care facilities.


We have a fatter more unhealthy population with a lot of heart disease and diabetes issues they don't....if you thinking just cause they have those factors we don't have our own issues to drive complications.
"Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery." - Winston Churchill
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rws92
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WorkerBee said:

Sisyphus said:


Quote:

Italy's older population certainly has something to do with it. However, Italy has more hospital beds per capita, and more ICU beds per capita than the US.

This is accurate. It's going to hit harder here than in Italy unless people are responsible and start self-isolating. When it gets into rural communities it will hit really hard since they were already lacking in hospital capacity.
This is not accurate. Per the Society of Critical Care Medicine you guys are not even close. Quit falling for the media hype. This is per 100,000 people.
USA 34.7
Germany 29.2
Italy 12.5
France 11.6
Everyone else


I think the bigger issue that this is lack of qualified personnel to run that equip...especially when they start dropping. That was a side conversation on messaging back and forth with my sister and sisters in law all of whom are RNs (sis works in an NICU).
"Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery." - Winston Churchill
_mpaul
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IDaggie06 said:

For reference, about 100 people die in the US per day from car crashes.

Paranoia Paranoia everybody coming to get me
Car crashes don't cause other car crashes, and don't have exponential growth based on the number of prior car crashes.
WorkerBee
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No one said we are not worried. Saying that we are screwed because we have less capacity than Italy is not correct and that leads to the perception that other countries have more resources when that is far from the truth. Saying we are screwed in a worst case scenario because of limited capability is correct but it is not because the USA sucks. From another discussion for those of us with some direct knowledge.

Quote:

Quote:

Shanked Punt said:
[url=https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article241198366.html][/url]https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article241198366.html

Tarrant County, 2.1 million people and 362 ICU beds,
dermdoc said:
You can make parts of the hospital into "ICU beds" if needed. We have had numerous intubated and critical patients on the floor wen needed. The US is not China, Italy, Spain, etc. We will confront and handle this problem like Americans always do.

And It might be a good time to restore a little faith in whatever, God, the US, your fellow man, etc.

We've never been licked
This right here. On any given day there are a significant number of patients in ICU's that could be sent to step down units (i.e. Intermediate Care Units) that do not require "vent mgt" but "intensive" care that can be given in a re-purposed area of a hospital.. For example, suicidal patients, OD's that are not on vents, DKA patients on insulin drips that are closing the gap and essentially "stable", certain post op patients, etc. The hospitals I work at already have plans to increase their ICU beds by at least 50% if needed. This is done by opening up closed floors for step down care and maximizing specialized ICU's like a CVICU or SICU. The biggest factor is having the staff - mainly nurses and RT's.

It may get nasty but as dermdoc said, if the **** hits the fan the medical community will rise to the occasion. It may not be pretty but I have full faith that it will be a much more heroic stand than any other country on this planet can muster.
SkiMo
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WorkerBee said:

No one said we are not worried. Saying that we are screwed because we have less capacity than Italy is not correct and that leads to the perception that other countries have more resources when that is far from the truth. Saying we are screwed in a worst case scenario because of limited capability is correct but it is not because the USA sucks. From another discussion for those of us with some direct knowledge.

Quote:

Quote:

Shanked Punt said:
[url=https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article241198366.html][/url]https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article241198366.html

Tarrant County, 2.1 million people and 362 ICU beds,
dermdoc said:
You can make parts of the hospital into "ICU beds" if needed. We have had numerous intubated and critical patients on the floor wen needed. The US is not China, Italy, Spain, etc. We will confront and handle this problem like Americans always do.

And It might be a good time to restore a little faith in whatever, God, the US, your fellow man, etc.

We've never been licked
This right here. On any given day there are a significant number of patients in ICU's that could be sent to step down units (i.e. Intermediate Care Units) that do not require "vent mgt" but "intensive" care that can be given in a re-purposed area of a hospital.. For example, suicidal patients, OD's that are not on vents, DKA patients on insulin drips that are closing the gap and essentially "stable", certain post op patients, etc. The hospitals I work at already have plans to increase their ICU beds by at least 50% if needed. This is done by opening up closed floors for step down care and maximizing specialized ICU's like a CVICU or SICU. The biggest factor is having the staff - mainly nurses and RT's.

It may get nasty but as dermdoc said, if the **** hits the fan the medical community will rise to the occasion. It may not be pretty but I have full faith that it will be a much more heroic stand than any other country on this planet can muster.
A post that lifted my spirits. I like it!
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Nosmo
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MarcAg said:

Dallas county said on Friday they had the resources to test 40 people. They hoped in a week for that to go up to 90. They can test 40 people in a county of over 2.5 million people.
Could you post a link to that information?

Talked to a medical professional in DFW today, and they had 5 test kits a week ago and got 10 more this past week. And they have used about 1/2 of them. No positive test so far, but have not gotten all test results back.

They run flu test at their office, but Covid-19 goes to a testing lab. And this is a small clinic.

Pumpkinhead
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Nosmo said:

MarcAg said:

Dallas county said on Friday they had the resources to test 40 people. They hoped in a week for that to go up to 90. They can test 40 people in a county of over 2.5 million people.
Could you post a link to that information?

Talked to a medical professional in DFW today, and they had 5 test kits a week ago and got 10 more this past week. And they have used about 1/2 of them. No positive test so far, but have not gotten all test results back.

They run flu test at their office, but Covid-19 goes to a testing lab. And this is a small clinic.


That would seem really inadequate to me if true. I live in Panama (Central America), a country with a population of about 4 million, and they stated earlier this week they have a current stock of 3,000 test kits and are in the process of acquiring more, as they are trying to do quite a bit of testing of suspected contacts.
jt16
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Pumpkinhead said:

Nosmo said:

MarcAg said:

Dallas county said on Friday they had the resources to test 40 people. They hoped in a week for that to go up to 90. They can test 40 people in a county of over 2.5 million people.
Could you post a link to that information?

Talked to a medical professional in DFW today, and they had 5 test kits a week ago and got 10 more this past week. And they have used about 1/2 of them. No positive test so far, but have not gotten all test results back.

They run flu test at their office, but Covid-19 goes to a testing lab. And this is a small clinic.


That would seem really inadequate to me if true. I live in Panama (Central America), a country with a population of about 4 million, and they stated earlier this week they have a current stock of 3,000 test kits and are in the process of acquiring more, as they are trying to do quite a bit of testing of suspected contacts.


No, our private sector is far better at plugging any gaps.

https://www.khou.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/several-houston-hospitals-have-their-own-ways-of-testing-covid-19/285-39d11523-fedd-47da-9553-a6d8c388ea0f
Fat Black Swan
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75AG said:

jmm said:

it is idiotic to compare Italy to U.S. Italy has a substantially older population, higher population density, higher percentage of smokers and substantially lower quality medical care facilities.


Italy's older population certainly has something to do with it. However, Italy has more hospital beds per capita, and more ICU beds per capita than the US.


Italy has an occupancy rate of 80% on 12.5 ICU beds per 100,000. The US has 65% occupancy on 35 ICU beds per 100,000. You factor in their population over 65 is 21% while ours is 16%, and we have an effective available capacity that is 5-6x Italy's.





Quote:

Over the three years studied, total ICU occupancy ranged from 57.4% to 82.1% and the number of beds filled with mechanically ventilated patients ranged from 20.7% to 38.9%. There was no change in occupancy across years and no increase in occupancy during influenza seasons. Mean hourly occupancy across ICUs was 68.2% SD 21.3, and was substantially higher in ICUs with fewer beds (mean 75.8% ( 16.5) for 514 beds versus 60.9% ( 22.1) for 20+ beds, P = 0.001), and in academic hospitals (78.7% ( 15.9) versus 65.3% ( 21.3) for community not-for profit hospitals, P < 0.001). More than half (53.6%) of ICUs had 4+ beds available more than half the time. The mean percentage of ICU patients receiving mechanical ventilation in any given hour was 39.5% ( 15.2), and a mean of 29.0% ( 15.9) of ICU beds were filled with a patient on a ventilator.


Pumpkinhead
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jt16 said:

Pumpkinhead said:

Nosmo said:

MarcAg said:

Dallas county said on Friday they had the resources to test 40 people. They hoped in a week for that to go up to 90. They can test 40 people in a county of over 2.5 million people.
Could you post a link to that information?

Talked to a medical professional in DFW today, and they had 5 test kits a week ago and got 10 more this past week. And they have used about 1/2 of them. No positive test so far, but have not gotten all test results back.

They run flu test at their office, but Covid-19 goes to a testing lab. And this is a small clinic.


That would seem really inadequate to me if true. I live in Panama (Central America), a country with a population of about 4 million, and they stated earlier this week they have a current stock of 3,000 test kits and are in the process of acquiring more, as they are trying to do quite a bit of testing of suspected contacts.


No, our private sector is far better at plugging any gaps.

https://www.khou.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/several-houston-hospitals-have-their-own-ways-of-testing-covid-19/285-39d11523-fedd-47da-9553-a6d8c388ea0f
Thanks. Good to hear. My sister and her family live in Frisco, and she actually almost lost her daughter (my niece, 8 years old at the time) to Swine Flu back in 09 because she has asthma and then caught that and it really took her down. Was in an ICU unit for several days. So, definitely any news about Dallas/forth worth area catches my eye.
75AG
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Good data. The NYT reported US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 while Italy has 3.2. Their data didn't discuss available occupancy. But your data is correct on critical beds, where we have roughly 3x that of Italy.
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75AG said:

Good data. The NYT reported US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 while Italy has 3.2. Their data didn't discuss available occupancy. But your data is correct on critical beds, where we have roughly 3x that of Italy.
My wife works for a major hospital system (analytics director). She says the big problem is that most hospitals in the US are very close to full occupancy at all times, and Covid patients have to be separated from the other rooms. They are currently turning some orthopedic wings into Covid wings. It's hard to have enough beds that are quarantined from non Covid patients.
Thomas Ford 91
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Deaths dropped 200+ today. Should have increased +250. Scientifically, that is literally proof that Americans are God's chosen people.
Tmoneyag99
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cityagboy said:

75AG said:

Good data. The NYT reported US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 while Italy has 3.2. Their data didn't discuss available occupancy. But your data is correct on critical beds, where we have roughly 3x that of Italy.
My wife works for a major hospital system (analytics director). She says the big problem is that most hospitals in the US are very close to full occupancy at all times, and Covid patients have to be separated from the other rooms. They are currently turning some orthopedic wings into Covid wings. It's hard to have enough beds that are quarantined from non Covid patients.

But consider this:

1) No non-essential surgeries are being performed right now.
2) People are supposed to be lying low. So you are having fewer accident related emergencies. (whether road or work related)
3) People are just staying the F* away from the ER for BS in general.
They are doing what we probably should do at home. Self medicate, call the nurse on call and wait **** out.


The thing is, and what a lot of people don't realize, We have really good access to medical care in this country that other countries don't have. Basically the ERs are used to people coming in for hang nails, kissing our boo boos and laughing as they collect on that $1,000 visit.

Italy needs all of those emergency beds because they preventative care sucks ass. When you don't prevent stuff medically, you end up with a lot of emergencies.

In the USA right now places like Houston is lying in wait. It's going to hit but hopefully it hits slowly (hence the purpose of this shelter in place) You've got half the people sheltering in place and half the nimcompoops Throwing Covid Parties like it's Chicken Pox. This is actually a bit a of a good thing. Crazy as that sounds. If no one goes out and we all quarantine we're just delaying the inevitable.
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Tmoneyag99 said:

cityagboy said:

75AG said:

Good data. The NYT reported US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 while Italy has 3.2. Their data didn't discuss available occupancy. But your data is correct on critical beds, where we have roughly 3x that of Italy.
My wife works for a major hospital system (analytics director). She says the big problem is that most hospitals in the US are very close to full occupancy at all times, and Covid patients have to be separated from the other rooms. They are currently turning some orthopedic wings into Covid wings. It's hard to have enough beds that are quarantined from non Covid patients.

But consider this:

1) No non-essential surgeries are being performed right now.
2) People are supposed to be lying low. So you are having fewer accident related emergencies. (whether road or work related)
3) People are just staying the F* away from the ER for BS in general.
They are doing what we probably should do at home. Self medicate, call the nurse on call and wait **** out.


The thing is, and what a lot of people don't realize, We have really good access to medical care in this country that other countries don't have. Basically the ERs are used to people coming in for hang nails, kissing our boo boos and laughing as they collect on that $1,000 visit.

Italy needs all of those emergency beds because they preventative care sucks ass. When you don't prevent stuff medically, you end up with a lot of emergencies.

In the USA right now places like Houston is lying in wait. It's going to hit but hopefully it hits slowly (hence the purpose of this shelter in place) You've got half the people sheltering in place and half the nimcompoops Throwing Covid Parties like it's Chicken Pox. This is actually a bit a of a good thing. Crazy as that sounds. If no one goes out and we all quarantine we're just delaying the inevitable.
You have a lot of assumptions. I know for a fact the hospital system my works for is worried about having enough isolated/ contained beds. They are worried about staffing levels. They are worried about supplies.

I can't speak for other systems, but I can talk about where my wife works. Her system is the largest in central texas
Tmoneyag99
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cityagboy said:

Tmoneyag99 said:

cityagboy said:

75AG said:

Good data. The NYT reported US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 while Italy has 3.2. Their data didn't discuss available occupancy. But your data is correct on critical beds, where we have roughly 3x that of Italy.
My wife works for a major hospital system (analytics director). She says the big problem is that most hospitals in the US are very close to full occupancy at all times, and Covid patients have to be separated from the other rooms. They are currently turning some orthopedic wings into Covid wings. It's hard to have enough beds that are quarantined from non Covid patients.

But consider this:

1) No non-essential surgeries are being performed right now.
2) People are supposed to be lying low. So you are having fewer accident related emergencies. (whether road or work related)
3) People are just staying the F* away from the ER for BS in general.
They are doing what we probably should do at home. Self medicate, call the nurse on call and wait **** out.


The thing is, and what a lot of people don't realize, We have really good access to medical care in this country that other countries don't have. Basically the ERs are used to people coming in for hang nails, kissing our boo boos and laughing as they collect on that $1,000 visit.

Italy needs all of those emergency beds because they preventative care sucks ass. When you don't prevent stuff medically, you end up with a lot of emergencies.

In the USA right now places like Houston is lying in wait. It's going to hit but hopefully it hits slowly (hence the purpose of this shelter in place) You've got half the people sheltering in place and half the nimcompoops Throwing Covid Parties like it's Chicken Pox. This is actually a bit a of a good thing. Crazy as that sounds. If no one goes out and we all quarantine we're just delaying the inevitable.
You have a lot of assumptions. I know for a fact the hospital system my works for is worried about having enough isolated/ contained beds. They are worried about staffing levels. They are worried about supplies.

I can't speak for other systems, but I can talk about where my wife works. Her system is the largest in central texas
Your wife isn't in houston then I suppose because there have been people on this board say that the Houston area nurses are afraid of being furloughed because they don't have enough work.


I'm not in the medical community so I'm not going to opine on hearsay.
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Tmoneyag99 said:

cityagboy said:

Tmoneyag99 said:

cityagboy said:

75AG said:

Good data. The NYT reported US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 while Italy has 3.2. Their data didn't discuss available occupancy. But your data is correct on critical beds, where we have roughly 3x that of Italy.
My wife works for a major hospital system (analytics director). She says the big problem is that most hospitals in the US are very close to full occupancy at all times, and Covid patients have to be separated from the other rooms. They are currently turning some orthopedic wings into Covid wings. It's hard to have enough beds that are quarantined from non Covid patients.

But consider this:

1) No non-essential surgeries are being performed right now.
2) People are supposed to be lying low. So you are having fewer accident related emergencies. (whether road or work related)
3) People are just staying the F* away from the ER for BS in general.
They are doing what we probably should do at home. Self medicate, call the nurse on call and wait **** out.


The thing is, and what a lot of people don't realize, We have really good access to medical care in this country that other countries don't have. Basically the ERs are used to people coming in for hang nails, kissing our boo boos and laughing as they collect on that $1,000 visit.

Italy needs all of those emergency beds because they preventative care sucks ass. When you don't prevent stuff medically, you end up with a lot of emergencies.

In the USA right now places like Houston is lying in wait. It's going to hit but hopefully it hits slowly (hence the purpose of this shelter in place) You've got half the people sheltering in place and half the nimcompoops Throwing Covid Parties like it's Chicken Pox. This is actually a bit a of a good thing. Crazy as that sounds. If no one goes out and we all quarantine we're just delaying the inevitable.
You have a lot of assumptions. I know for a fact the hospital system my works for is worried about having enough isolated/ contained beds. They are worried about staffing levels. They are worried about supplies.

I can't speak for other systems, but I can talk about where my wife works. Her system is the largest in central texas
Your wife isn't in houston then I suppose because there have been people on this board say that the Houston area nurses are afraid of being furloughed because they don't have enough work.


I'm not in the medical community so I'm not going to opine on hearsay.
Austin. I guess some could get hours cut or even furloughed but I guarantee administration is worried about what is going to happen when Houston gets hit hard. That's what hospital systems are preparing for.
SMM48
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Italy also had 50 direct flights daily from Wuhan
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Mordred
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Tmoneyag99 said:

Your wife isn't in houston then I suppose because there have been people on this board say that the Houston area nurses are afraid of being furloughed because they don't have enough work.


I'm not in the medical community so I'm not going to opine on hearsay.

My guess is you're referring to nurses who work in areas of hospitals that are essentially being suspended while they prepare for influx of COVID patients. Since many places have eliminated all elective surgeries, if you're a surgical nurse or PA, you might not have any work to do unless you volunteer to work in a COVID ward/ER if the need arises.
TXAggie2011
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SteveMedina said:

Italy also had 50 direct flights daily from Wuhan


No, it did not. There was 1 daily flight between Italy (Rome) and Wuhan.
SMM48
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You sure?
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SteveMedina said:

You sure?
I don't think there were 50 per day from Wuhan to Italy. I found two direct flights that were flying from Wuhan to Italy. One to Rome and one to Milan. It looks like there were about 50 a month from Wuhan, which sounds reasonable.

I'm sure there were a lot more from Shanghai and Beijing.
SMM48
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One Belt One Road. Don't forget chartered corporate flights. Private Jets.

Estimated 300,000 Chinese workers in and out of Italy.

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I have seen 100,000 but it could be 300,000. I'm confident we have more in the US especially taking students into account. I'm also confident we have more flights to and from China and probably Wuhan than Italy. (Haven't looked up numbers)

Non commercial flights carry significantly less people, I thought we were only talking about commercial.
TXAggie2011
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SteveMedina said:

One Belt One Road. Don't forget chartered corporate flights. Private Jets.

Estimated 300,000 Chinese workers in and out of Italy.
Steve, this is a theory funneling around largely right wing political commentary outlets and their followers. Very little attempts of providing evidence has been presented and much of the evidence offered, such as all these flights, are simply untrue.

There's, by best count, maybe about 400,000-500,000 overseas Chinese and people of Chinese descent in Italy. That's less than both the United Kingdom and France, by the way. Its maybe 2/3rds of 1% of the Italian population. For comparison's sake, the Chinese population makes up about 1.5% of the United States population.

A lot of people have made a big deal about all the Chinese workers supporting the garment industry. One problem with that is most of that is in Tuscany. More specifically, in and around Prato which is not in the northern epicenter of the outbreak.

The OBOR theory originated, as far I can tell, with the Helen Raleigh article on the far right Federalist e-magazine. Raleigh is a financial advisor in Colorado with very, very strong opinions about China. It was an opportunistic hit piece. There is a lot about OBOR to be concerned about, but it was a garbage article.

It is true that Italy has economic strengthened ties to China via the OBOR initiative. Nevertheless, China has significantly more investment in a number of other European countries, and countries around the world.

The bottom line is if we're tying this to Chinese immigrants and economic ties, then a number of other places in the world, including west coast cities such as San Francisco (which had a non-stop flight to Wuhan, by the way), should be absolute **** shows.The rest of Asia should be devastated.

Northern Italy was an unfortunate perfect storm of domestic factors. There was a densely populated, ageing, social society in the middle of winter. They didn't respond well, and you saw what happened. Other places will likely get there, too, sadly enough.
Stasco
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The Federalist is "far right"? LOL
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That's what you took out of his informative post?
TXAggie2011
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Stasco said:

The Federalist is "far right"? LOL
Its an unabashedly very conservative website that now has a number of bloggers such as Helen Raleigh that push even further towards one side of the spectrum and push a stronger populist view than the Ben Domenech evangelical Heartland Institute conservatism might otherwise propound.

I'm far from the first to describe The Federalist as "right wing." But that's all I'm going to get into that. Stay safe out there.
Ag Defense Rules
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In response to the Thomas Ford 91 post above (15th post on page 1), you hinted on March 15 that the US was maybe 10 days behind Italy's roughly 1800 deaths in a day. But with 5.5x the population for the US.

We are now 15 days later but with 2800 deaths. This is great. Not (5.5 x 1800) or 9900.

Do you think this is because of social distancing? Or because the virus just isn't as deadly here?
AustinAg2K
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TXAggie2011 said:


Northern Italy was an unfortunate perfect storm of domestic factors. There was a densely populated, ageing, social society in the middle of winter. They didn't respond well, and you saw what happened. Other places will likely get there, too, sadly enough.
Spain is nearly as bad as Italy, and France is coming on strong. In fact, just about every European country is having major issues right now if you adjust for population size.
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https://www.nationalreview.com/news/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-death-toll-the-incinerators-have-been-working-around-the-clock/
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