how are the most up to date numbers comparing? Are we tracking at fewer cases or more?
10 days behind Italy?
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Last: 6 yr ago by hatchback
I read the average age of death in italy is 81. Anyone see any related data to show average age of death?
My wife said last night that she read an article stating that we are tracking ahead of Italy. Did not see the article so it could be BS
I literally just finished updating my spreadsheet to include Italy. I had been saying that we were two weeks behind Italy, but I could not find a chart to confirm, so I made one myself. When I offset the dates by 10 days, the number of total cases is eerily similar:
- US IIIIIIIIII|||||||||||| Italy
- 4-Mar-20 158 |||| 23-Feb-20 157
- 5-Mar-20 221 |||| 24-Feb-20 229
- 6-Mar-20 319 |||| 25-Feb-20 323
- 7-Mar-20 435 |||| 26-Feb-20 470
- 8-Mar-20 541 |||| 27-Feb-20 655
- 9-Mar-20 704 |||| 28-Feb-20 889
- 10-Mar-20 994 ||| 29-Feb-20 1,128
- 11-Mar-20 1,301 || 1-Mar-20 1,701
- 12-Mar-20 1,697 || 2-Mar-20 2,036
- 13-Mar-20 2,247 || 3-Mar-20 2,502
- 14-Mar-20 2,943 || 4-Mar-20 3,089
- 15-Mar-20 3,680 || 5-Mar-20 3,858
It has been a bit back and forth from day to day, but ultimately, we are on the same number track as Italy still.
That doesn't tell the whole story though. We have a much larger population, so our numbers are expected to be higher. Our mortality rate so far is tracking much less than Italy as we test more. Also, the population in Italy is much older, and our health care system is better overall.
That doesn't tell the whole story though. We have a much larger population, so our numbers are expected to be higher. Our mortality rate so far is tracking much less than Italy as we test more. Also, the population in Italy is much older, and our health care system is better overall.
I'd be interested to see the data by population. If we max out where Italy is based on total cases it's not as bad as capping out the same case:population ratio.
Better comparison for Italy isn't the country, but a state like CA.
I would think that Italy's population density would be a large factor as well. We have a much larger population, but with much less density, so I don't know that this an easy apples to apples comparison.
I think that kind of data is good to show what level of strain our country is under or how pervasive is the virus. However, for showing the rate of spread it's not really that important at this time. The spreads start as basic exponential functions, functions of how many healthy people are exposed and how likely that exposure is to turn into transmission.fightingfarmer09 said:
I'd be interested to see the data by population. If we max out where Italy is based on total cases it's not as bad as capping out the same case:population ratio.
Does this take into account the size of the populations by Country for the number of deaths, or is the focus on the shape of the curve?HotardAg07 said:
I have been keeping track of that graph. It pretty clearly shows how different countries follow a very similar growth of cases until isolation measures are taken into account.
Here's his response to that question, which answers it better than I could:
"And here's why these numbers aren't adjusted for population:
Normalised numbers are good at showing *relatively* how much strain a country is under, but they're unsuited to tracking the extent/state of a country's outbreak, which spreads at ~same pace regardless of country size."
"And here's why these numbers aren't adjusted for population:
Normalised numbers are good at showing *relatively* how much strain a country is under, but they're unsuited to tracking the extent/state of a country's outbreak, which spreads at ~same pace regardless of country size."
What the hell is going on in Spain and Italy? At the same data point of ten days after the tenth death reported, their mortality rate is over twice as great.
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Seven Costanza said:
I would think that Italy's population density would be a large factor as well. We have a much larger population, but with much less density, so I don't know that this an easy apples to apples comparison.
They are also like the second oldest population in the world. Something no one is talking about
Japan is pretty dense in terms of population as well, right? What's being done so much better in Asia? Is it just cultural differences are more likely to prevent spread?
HotardAg07 said:
Here's his response to that question, which answers it better than I could:
"And here's why these numbers aren't adjusted for population:
Normalised numbers are good at showing *relatively* how much strain a country is under, but they're unsuited to tracking the extent/state of a country's outbreak, which spreads at ~same pace regardless of country size."
I admit that these concepts can be very difficult to understand and thus I may be misunderstanding, but a less dense population would seemingly spread at a reduced pace because a spread out population is already somewhat more quarantined.
ORAggieFan said:
Japan is pretty dense in terms of population as well, right? What's being done so much better in Asia? Is it just cultural differences are more likely to prevent spread?
Italy is one of the oldest populations. Yet no one is talking about that fact and is comparing Italy to the US. People are trying to cause panic which is more dangerous than the virus itself.
Yukon Cornelius said:
People are trying to cause panic which is more dangerous than the virus itself.
Working for a Japanese company, I can say that Japan went pretty aggressive early on with the quarantining and what not. They shut schools down for a month and asked employers to do teleworking as much as possible. Additionally, even when it's not CV outbreak, a lot of people over there already act a lot like hypochondriacs and wear surgical masks everywhere they go. If you get on a busy commuter rail, not unusual for 50% of the people to be wearing masks.
As for Italy, they have an older population and the areas where the outbreak has hit the hardest has overwhelmed their hospital system.
As for Italy, they have an older population and the areas where the outbreak has hit the hardest has overwhelmed their hospital system.
Agree completely.
Then knowing that, why are people using the Italian numbers to scare the hell out of Americans? Why is everybody ignoring Seattle and Washington? Or the Asian countries?
You can look on any graph and even if we are "10 days behind Italy" which to me does not make sense since the first case in the US was 1/21 in Washington state and Italy's first case was three weeks later.
There is definitely a different disease course which is becoming more obvious with each passing day. I am starting to wonder if certain genetic immune characteristics make the Italians and a Spaniards more vulnerable.
Then knowing that, why are people using the Italian numbers to scare the hell out of Americans? Why is everybody ignoring Seattle and Washington? Or the Asian countries?
You can look on any graph and even if we are "10 days behind Italy" which to me does not make sense since the first case in the US was 1/21 in Washington state and Italy's first case was three weeks later.
There is definitely a different disease course which is becoming more obvious with each passing day. I am starting to wonder if certain genetic immune characteristics make the Italians and a Spaniards more vulnerable.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
I mean.... I think those numbers should scare you. Not to go buy toilet paper, but to follow the guidance of the CDC recommendations. My 83 year old grandma who has been hospitalized a few times in the last year with respiratory issues is going on like nothing is happening and it is all just a media driven hoax. I think she should be more scared.
No problems with that. But why are the Italian numbers, which appear to be more of an outlier with each passing day, being constantly used as a comparison to the US? Instead of actual US numbers from Washington state?HotardAg07 said:
I mean.... I think those numbers should scare you. Not to go buy toilet paper, but to follow the guidance of the CDC recommendations. My 83 year old grandma who has been hospitalized a few times in the last year with respiratory issues is going on like nothing is happening and it is all just a media driven hoax. I think she should be more scared.
And I am no genius, but even I can look at charts and see that Italy and probably Spain are outliers. Why is that not even being discussed?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
HotardAg07 said:
Here's his response to that question, which answers it better than I could:
"And here's why these numbers aren't adjusted for population:
Normalised numbers are good at showing *relatively* how much strain a country is under, but they're unsuited to tracking the extent/state of a country's outbreak, which spreads at ~same pace regardless of country size."
That's a huge assumption. Have to adjust for culture and density.
Tracking total number of cases is useless if you are using those numbers to make comparisons between two completely different countries with different cultures and population densities.
Amen. But nobody seems to be doing that. And there is an obvious huge difference from Italy and possibly Spain and almost every other country.Moxley said:HotardAg07 said:
Here's his response to that question, which answers it better than I could:
"And here's why these numbers aren't adjusted for population:
Normalised numbers are good at showing *relatively* how much strain a country is under, but they're unsuited to tracking the extent/state of a country's outbreak, which spreads at ~same pace regardless of country size."
That's a huge assumption. Have to adjust for culture and density.
Tracking total number of cases is useless if you are using those numbers to make comparisons between two completely different countries with different cultures and population densities.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
If I was 83 I wouldn't be scared of death, I've probably already lived a good life and the best days are behind me.
Although I'm sure my family would want me around longer of course.
Although I'm sure my family would want me around longer of course.
Their death rate is higher, but the infection rate is almost identical to ours at similar points in the outbreak -- that's the whole point of the second graph. All of those countries who have outbreaks in the early stages were going at basically the same rate.dermdoc said:No problems with that. But why are the Italian numbers, which appear to be more of an outlier with each passing day, being constantly used as a comparison to the US? Instead of actual US numbers from Washington state?HotardAg07 said:
I mean.... I think those numbers should scare you. Not to go buy toilet paper, but to follow the guidance of the CDC recommendations. My 83 year old grandma who has been hospitalized a few times in the last year with respiratory issues is going on like nothing is happening and it is all just a media driven hoax. I think she should be more scared.
And I am no genius, but even I can look at charts and see that Italy and probably Spain are outliers. Why is that not even being discussed?
I don't know about you, but I've seen several articles discuss why the death rate in Italy is so high and is so low in South Korea. South Korea has the most extensive testing in the world, so their denominator is bigger as they're catching more of the mild cases. Italy is older and their medical system is overwhelmed in the areas where it is most prevalent.
I mean, look at the graphs Moxley. Obviously tracking the total number of cases is not useless, once they're normalized to a similar starting point.Moxley said:HotardAg07 said:
Here's his response to that question, which answers it better than I could:
"And here's why these numbers aren't adjusted for population:
Normalised numbers are good at showing *relatively* how much strain a country is under, but they're unsuited to tracking the extent/state of a country's outbreak, which spreads at ~same pace regardless of country size."
That's a huge assumption. Have to adjust for culture and density.
Tracking total number of cases is useless if you are using those numbers to make comparisons between two completely different countries with different cultures and population densities.
The whole point of the graph is to show how the virus grows exponentially, which is why it has a logarithmic axis. Infectious disease, by its nature, is a logarithmic function. That's because the number of new people affected is a function of how many people have it.
I would highly suggest anybody to watch this video. It really wonderfully breaks down the models for these infectious diseases. It does a great job of showing what are the relevant factors for how it grows, inflection points, and flattens out.
We are not following italy's track. We lead...in the good way
There are a lot of diseases that affect different ethnic groups differently. And there is definitely a pretty major difference in Italy and everybody else. Yet the Italian numbers are used which is fine for viral spread and cases which obviously are going to be similar, but the effects and especially mortality seem to obviously be worse in Italians and maybe all Mediterranean folks.HotardAg07 said:Their death rate is higher, but the infection rate is almost identical to ours at similar points in the outbreak -- that's the whole point of the second graph. All of those countries who have outbreaks in the early stages were going at basically the same rate.dermdoc said:No problems with that. But why are the Italian numbers, which appear to be more of an outlier with each passing day, being constantly used as a comparison to the US? Instead of actual US numbers from Washington state?HotardAg07 said:
I mean.... I think those numbers should scare you. Not to go buy toilet paper, but to follow the guidance of the CDC recommendations. My 83 year old grandma who has been hospitalized a few times in the last year with respiratory issues is going on like nothing is happening and it is all just a media driven hoax. I think she should be more scared.
And I am no genius, but even I can look at charts and see that Italy and probably Spain are outliers. Why is that not even being discussed?
I don't know about you, but I've seen several articles discuss why the death rate in Italy is so high and is so low in South Korea. South Korea has the most extensive testing in the world, so their denominator is bigger as they're catching more of the mild cases. Italy is older and their medical system is overwhelmed in the areas where it is most prevalent.
And to my knowledge, nobody is talking about this except a little country dermatologist on texags. It is just common sense.
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Actually case numbers are very similar which makes total sense. Severity of disease and mortality rates are not anywhere similar and it is becoming more obvious by the day.law-apt-3g said:
We are not following italy's track. We lead...in the good way
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So when do our hospitals get overwhelmed?
Can someone put a date on that so when it comes and the hospitals aren't overwhelmed we can go back to normal life?
Can someone put a date on that so when it comes and the hospitals aren't overwhelmed we can go back to normal life?
70 deaths vs 500 is a pretty important difference.dermdoc said:Actually case numbers are very similar which makes total sense. Severity of disease and mortality rates are not anywhere similar and it is becoming more obvious by the day.law-apt-3g said:
We are not following italy's track. We lead...in the good way
Exactly. But why are people not talking about that?FriscoKid said:70 deaths vs 500 is a pretty important difference.dermdoc said:Actually case numbers are very similar which makes total sense. Severity of disease and mortality rates are not anywhere similar and it is becoming more obvious by the day.law-apt-3g said:
We are not following italy's track. We lead...in the good way
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Italy reported 368 deaths on Sunday and then 349 deaths today (Monday). 717 deaths in the past two days.
2158 deaths total.
2158 deaths total.
I was in northern Italy this summer. Even small towns are densely populated. Unless you're a farmer, you're living in close contact with other people. Also, Italy has that tradition of multiple generations living in one household. Grandparents retire and move back in with the kids. Italians are very social people. They hug, kiss and share food and then go back home to the grandparents.
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