According to the tracker, Italy has a lot more reported total cases per 1 million population than the United States.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Italy (462.8 cases per million, 2158 deaths)
Spain (201.6 cases per million, 335 deaths)
South Korea (160.6 cases per million, 75 deaths)
United States (12.6 cases per million, 73 deaths)

Once the spread of this virus gets as extensive as the other countries, hopefully we are South Korea, whom seems to be the role model country to follow on having very successfully 'flattened the curve'.

Don't need massive testing to count deaths though.

amercer said:

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Don't need massive testing to count deaths though.

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True, but relevant death statistics would seem to be deaths per capita and deaths per actual cases.

The absolute numbers alone are important for each country, but don't seem suitable for comparing trends in each company without considering the other facts (rate of testing, population size, etc.)

Bruce Almighty said:

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I was in northern Italy this summer. Even small towns are densely populated. Unless you're a farmer, you're living in close contact with other people. Also, Italy has that tradition of multiple generations living in one household. Grandparents retire and move back in with the kids. Italians are very social people. They hug, kiss and share food and then go back home to the grandparents.

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That definitely seems like a major cultural difference compared to a typical family in the U.S., if there is typically a lot more multi-generational households and interactions between the generations. Goes to figure much easier for the younger generations to pass it on to the older ones.

Some states or areas in the U.S. may be higher risk than others depending on the demographics, such as a older communities or ones with a large percentage of multi-generational households, etc.

Fenrir said:

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Deaths have to be accurately attributed for the data to be accurate.

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I assure you that everyone in earth who is dying from a respiratory infection right now is getting a test

Again though, from any chart or any trend out there, what is the date our hospitals get overwhelmed?

Pumpkinhead said:

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Bruce Almighty said:

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I was in northern Italy this summer. Even small towns are densely populated. Unless you're a farmer, you're living in close contact with other people. Also, Italy has that tradition of multiple generations living in one household. Grandparents retire and move back in with the kids. Italians are very social people. They hug, kiss and share food and then go back home to the grandparents.

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That definitely seems like a major cultural difference compared to a typical family in the U.S., if there is typically a lot more multi-generational households and interactions between the generations. Goes to figure much easier for the younger generations to pass it on to the older ones.

We saw what happened when this virus got into a nursing home in Washington, caused a lot of deaths. In the states, hopefully the tighter restrictions now placed on access to nursing homes and the higher risk category folks more naturally able to self-isolate than a place like Italy will help out a lot.

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The multi-generation thing is a plausible scenario, but other countries have that as well such as India. I think the bigger thing with Italy is the hugging, kissing, sharing and close contact. One of our sites for work is in Milan and it is very common to hug, kiss cheeks, etc. even in the work place. I'm not surprised to see the case numbers elevated as they are culturally more susceptible to this type of viral transmission.

What did S Korea implement?

SoupNazi2001 said:

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dermdoc said:

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FriscoKid said:

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dermdoc said:

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law-apt-3g said:

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We are not following italy's track. We lead...in the good way

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Actually case numbers are very similar which makes total sense. Severity of disease and mortality rates are not anywhere similar and it is becoming more obvious by the day.

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70 deaths vs 500 is a pretty important difference.

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Exactly. But why are people not talking about that?

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And let's not forget that the U.S. has 5x the population as Italy. Multiply Italy numbers by 5x to get an accurate comparison to us and we are doing dramatically better than them, but no one is talking about that.

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All that mostly matters is the actions being taken right now by the U.S. government, who is going off CDC/WHO input. No so much what any news channel is saying. Actions speak louder than words, and the government has certainly been taking actions that indicate a high level of concern.

Marcus Aurelius said:

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What did S Korea implement?

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One aspect of their approach as stated in reports was they tested extensively and early to figure out as much as possible who the infected were and isolate them.

Did they test everyone? i.e. afebrile asymptomatic people ?

amercer said:

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Again though, from any chart or any trend out there, what is the date our hospitals get overwhelmed?

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That's unknowable. US hospitals generally stay pretty full even when there aren't pandemics with severe respiratory involvement on the loose. Our health system has some slack in terms of unused beds, but it's the MICU bed census that really matters. Not all beds are equal. Italy's problem (like most socialized medicine countries) is they have no slack at all. We're trying to stay ahead of the surge. There is no "doomsday date" that anyone can give you. (But I suspect you already knew that.)

Marcus Aurelius said:

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What did S Korea implement?

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/opinion/letters/south-korea-coronavirus.html

Quote:

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From an early stage, the Korean government has set key principles to combat Covid-19: Be quick, transparent and pre-emptive.

Unlike other countries where only patients showing symptoms have been tested, we chose to test everyone who has been in close contact with confirmed cases. Rather than waiting for patients to come in, we pursued and tracked down possible patients to prevent spread within the community.

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https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0316/1123458-coronavirus-world/

Quote:

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South Korea has 8,236 confirmed infections - the highest number in Asia outside China - while 75 people have died, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC).
Another 303 patients have been released after recovering, bringing the number of those who have gone home to 1,137, it said.
"Unless there are unexpected developments, we expect thistrend will also gain momentum," Mr Moon said during a meeting with health officials at Seoul city hall.
"Our confidence that we can overcome Covid-19 is growing."
Both Mr Moon and other officials warned against complacency.
"For three straight days we have seen more numbers of discharged than newly confirmed, but we should not forget the lessons we've learned," Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told a briefing.

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I understand your frustration. Italy's experience changed everything. Before that people took comfort in imagining the Chinese experience was unique. Perhaps that was due to a poor medical system, unfortunate genetics, too many smokers, etc. Surely, the West will be better off. Then Italy has their bad result with Covid ICU cases going from 0 - 560ish in 15 days with soaring death rates.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763188

That info started to circulate last Monday seemingly giving lie to the hopes that the rest of the world wouldn't suffer Wuhan's fate. The additional wrinkle that an overburdened medical system raises the fatality rate comes on the radar at that point.

One might then look at South Korea and desire their results. That gets murky if you look a little closer at the age distribution of the case populations in both places.

1*BYExL5OtkiMj2YiXbOd9PQ.png

and

1*_Q2L9ns4j6XmXlL5rh3eSQ.png

What seems to be in view with the difference in overall case severity and hospital burden may be only the difference in the age of the infected population. Change the mix of South Korea's cases and does their medical system come close to collapse? It doesn't matter necessarily how old the overall population is but how many of what age get infected. There still may be genetic or ethnic differentiation in this but it isn't obvious from what we know now.

South Korea's experience doesn't seem to translate to the US because we can't seem to get a working testing system up and running. They seem to have been largely successful because they were operating in a surveillance mode with elaborate case tracking. That horse probably left the barn here at least a month ago. That seems to also be true around Europe, with Italy being ground zero.

So what do we do? We are in the contentious process of coming to agreement on that. The number one task seems to be avoid infecting older people. How best to do that is open to debate.
[url=][/url]

plots from here
https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf

Currently:

40% (1724 / 4300) cases and 71% (53 / 75) deaths are in 9 counties across the US.

And King County (Seattle) has 49% (37 / 75) deaths.

Because King County had it run through some elder care facilities (Lifecare hospital/nursing home).

(Caution: link is CNN but in this case I've verified it elsewhere previously so it's not totally fake).

SoupNazi2001 said:

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dermdoc said:

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FriscoKid said:

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dermdoc said:

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law-apt-3g said:

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We are not following italy's track. We lead...in the good way

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Actually case numbers are very similar which makes total sense. Severity of disease and mortality rates are not anywhere similar and it is becoming more obvious by the day.

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70 deaths vs 500 is a pretty important difference.

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Exactly. But why are people not talking about that?

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And let's not forget that the U.S. has 5x the population as Italy. Multiply Italy numbers by 5x to get an accurate comparison to us and we are doing dramatically better than them, but no one is talking about that.

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You really don't know what you don't know. Exponential growth in early stages is not dependent on absolute numbers. It won't slow down until about 40% of the population is infected or vaccines and NPIs are implemented.

Quote:

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Surgeon General Jerome Adams told CNN on Monday morning that the U.S. was "at a critical inflection point," noting that America now has the same number of cases that Italy had two weeks ago. Italy is now on lockdown as it deals with more than 27,000 cases of the coronavirus, trailing only China, where the outbreak began.

"We have a choice to make: Do we want to really lean into social distancing and mitigation strategies and flatten the curve or do we just want to keep going on with business as usual and end up being Italy?" Adams said.

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amercer said:

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Don't need massive testing to count deaths though.

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Actually, you do. Dead without a positive test means you are left out of the count. If there are 250 unaccounted for deaths over the last 20 days (in a country with 330 million people), we are ****ed. Completely.

We can't compare ourselves to anybody BECAUSE THEY ARE TESTING!!!! Luckily viruses are very mathematical, so we can make accurate estimates. And the estimates say to shut it all down.

rgag12 said:

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If I was 83 I wouldn't be scared of death, I've probably already lived a good life and the best days are behind me.

Although I'm sure my family would want me around longer of course.

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My dad's 82 and I just had that conversation with him today. He doesn't want to stay home.

amercer said:

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Don't need massive testing to count deaths though.

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If you die without a test depending on the political affiliation of the coroner you could be a covid victim of just an old that died from the flu

Its got nothing to do with politics and everything to do with incompetence. No test and you died of influenza-like illness, or bilateral interstitial pneumonia, or cardiac arrest. Surprisingly, the cardiac thing is what's mostly killing the non-counted in the hot zones.

Bruce Almighty said:

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I was in northern Italy this summer. Even small towns are densely populated. Unless you're a farmer, you're living in close contact with other people. Also, Italy has that tradition of multiple generations living in one household. Grandparents retire and move back in with the kids. Italians are very social people. They hug, kiss and share food and then go back home to the grandparents.

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Interesting.
I also heard reports that because of the government corruption they've experienced, they are distrustful of government edicts. So they wouldn't be as apt to "follow their rules" so to speak.
Also heard that they have somewhat socialized health care which isn't in good shape.
Seems like all of the above plus an aging population might explain their curves.

meatsweats said:

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Is there a breakdown like this for the number of critical cases?